Date with destiny – Accrington preview

Tomorrow is set to be a festival of football, a day which we may remember for all the right reasons or, maybe, we might rue for the wrong ones.

The point is we’re not quite there yet, we do need a point, but as you know we never go anywhere for a point. Accrington want to wrap up the league title and they’re pumped for the game. They weren’t happy with a lot that went on when we beat them 2-0 earlier in the season (pictured top), nor when we knocked them out the EFL Trophy. They want it tomorrow, big time. The question is, are they going to come at us all guns blazing and risk leaving space at the back for Green, Rhead and Palmerdinho?

We could wait until Yeovil, but nobody wants that week of panic as we await the final game do we. Besides, I need us to finish fourth or fifth, it would mean the second leg would be at home and I have more chance of recovering from my back op and making it! That means, for two teams who are seemingly over the line, there’s a lot at stake tomorrow.

Thanks to the guys at www.kickoff.co.uk, I’ve been sent another set of stats, figures and fact for me to assess and you to pour over. Pointless me waffling on anymore, on with the show!

The clear picture here is simple. Accrington don’t lose at home. They’ve only been beaten three times all season, although they’ve only conceded four fewer goals at home than we have away, is that a possible positive?

They do score freely though, 36 at home, and counting.

In fairness, losing six away all season isn’t terrible, considering Luton was one of those and another the farce at Meadow Lane, so in essence we’re unlikely to find ourselves in Accrington’s ‘greater than two’ goals column. They’ve only failed to score once at home this season though, another rather ominous stats. Mind you, we’ve only failed to score away from home in seven of our 20 matches, and we’ve kept eight clean sheets on our travels.

In the ten-game form stats there is a clear winner again, Accrington. Mind you, they’re top of the table and gunning for the title, so what would you expect? We do have a better conversion rate, we conceded less shots per game and we’re level on goals scored in the last ten games. We’ve also lost one of the last ten, just as they have, although they’re won two more.

What do the stats suggest the score will be? The largest likelihood is a 1-0 home win, with a 1-1 draw closely followed by a 2-0 and 2-1 home win. In fact, the stats suggest that a 3-1 Accrington win is as likely as us winning 1-0.

I’ve never cared for stats!

If they do win 1-0, the obvious choice for the only goal of the game would be Billy Kee. I’ve got a lot of time for Kee, his battle with depression has been well documented and I respect him using his voice in a positive way. I’d prefer if we kept him quiet tomorrow though, just for ninety minutes.

So if you’re a betting man (or woman), you’ll be wanting to put you money on a 1-0 Accrington win will you, with Kee scoring first? I’d suggest not. I’d suggest flipping over the page to have a look at the other potential scorers, as well as the chances of both teams scoring and other popular stats.

“page two please boss”

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