The Stats – Imps v Exeter

There’s always a better chance of a game being decided by the odd goal or two than anything else. You remember the 3-2 win for us earlier this year? There was a 2% chance of that happening. Football, especially play-off semi-finals football, cannot be predicted. Who would have called Scunthorpe’s 5-3 defeat at the Bank in 2003?

For the record if things go true to form, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 City win. Remember, there’s a 12% chance of a 1-1 draw, but a 50% chance of us winning, the most likely margin being by a solitary goal. Anyone betting on just one goal tomorrow may as well just send me the money here to spend on stickers.

Rather amusingly, Matt Green is most likely to score first, followed by Palmer and Rhead. think it’s highly likely we’ll open the scoring, but if they do then that man Stockley is likely to get it. My feeling is we’ll shackle him far better tomorrow than we did in the previous matches and if we do, we could get on the right side of the result.

Despite Green being favourite to score first, he hasn’t done so in our last 20 matches. If you were putting a bet one, Lee Frecklington is probably the man to go for, if he’s fit. Of his three goals for City, two have been the opening goal of the game. Same with Rheady, although with just three strikes in the last 20, Rheady is perhaps not the man to be putting money on to score at all. The big man has better talents than that.


Finally, the ‘both teams to score’ market. Last time I urged you not to take both teams to score and within about fifteen minutes that bet had gone. Tomorrow, I’d urge you to consider backing it to be a high-scoring game. The previous game isn’t the basis for this, but more the nature of the occasion. Danny knows we want a goal or two from our home leg, so he’s going to be pushing for that. Paul Tisdale will know we want a goal and be looking to land lots on the head of their big man, meaning lots of bits and pieces.

I don’t envisage a cracker, not by a long shot, but in last year’s semi-finals Exeter drew 3-3 and won 3-2. The precedent is there for a big scoring game full of thrills and action. My thought? City to win 2-1, setting up a tense and nervy rematch on Thursday.