Man Utd, Liverpool or Burnley? Who Would Be The Most Lucrative League Cup Draw?

Courtesy of Graham Burrell

Last night, Lincoln stunned everybody except themselves by thrashing Bristol City of the Championship to progress to the Fourth Round of the League Cup for the first time since 1967/68.

It was a worthwhile performance and result, potentially setting up a big tie in the next round. However, it is not a result that brings obvious financial gain – there is no prize money in this competition until the semi-final stage. That’s right; we earned more from our victory against Newcastle Under 21s than we did last night in terms of prize money.

However, the League Cup does give smaller clubs a chance to earn some proper cash; it’s all about the luck of the draw. Clubs are entitled to 45% of the gate receipts from any game they participate in, making the draw even more important. In the FA Cup, if you win, you get a set amount, and the add-ons boost your earnings, but the difference between a good away draw and a bad away draw tomorrow night could be as much as £900,000.

Credit Graham Burrell

I have done some rudimentary maths, and believe me, this is not a hard and fast guide, but I was interested to know exactly which draw would be best for us if we are to go away. I’ve taken every team left in the competition, including the 18 that play tonight (meaning, if you’re reading this on Thursday, it could be a little out of date). I then found their average season ticket prices and divided them by the number of matches they play in the league to give an overall average ticket price. Now, for this, I had to play a little hard and fast with the facts – some clubs (such as those outside the top flight) I couldn’t find an average ST price for, only a top and bottom amount, which I used to work out an average. For Derby County, who are likely out by 10pm tonight, I used Charlton’s average based on them being a similar size.

From here, I found the club’s average attendance in the League Cup either this year (outside the Prem) or last year (Prem). For Villa, Southampton and Palace, I had to go further back and find their average attendance for the last time they had League Cup matches at home. That allowed me to work out an expected matchday revenue. Still with me?

Then, I worked out what 45% of that would be, which would be our cut. Then, in the interests of fairness, I took 75% of that figure as the amount we might get, factoring in that the average ST price might be higher than the average ticket price for a typical league cup game. It means I’m likely to have slightly underestimated the expected revenue, but it is hopefully a good guide. The key is to not read this and think ‘Leeds away would get us between £273,000 and £297,000, but to just know that Southampton away could earn us significantly less.

Southampton in the League Cup

So, who would be the best, and worst draws we could get?

There are three clubs that, by my maths, could earn us more than £500,000 if we were to draw them away. They would be Arsenal, by far the most expensive club to watch in the Premier League, Man Utd and Spurs. Arsenal’s League Cup average attendance was 58,447 last season, and with an estimated average ticket price of £48.76, the upper limit on earnings could be as much as £1.2m, although adjusting that figure down would still give us £961,895, based on these numbers. Man Utd, with relatively cheap tickets of £28 each, could net us £685,000 (I’m rounding now), whilst Spurs is estimated at around £613,000. Liverpool, at £476,000, would be fourth, and the fifth-best club we could draw, should they advance, would be Chelsea on £399,000.

Liverpool away would be worth a few quid – Credit Graham Burrell

That’s the top end of the scale, but at the bottom, we could get a real stinker. Ties against Gillingham (£13,000), MK Dons (£13,700) and Derby County (£31,700) would not be attractive. Oddly, according to my numbers, Charlton and Blackburn would be worth roughly the same amount (£37,100), whilst Sheff Weds (£96,200) would be a better draw than Brighton, Fulham, Palace, Bournemouth, Forest and Burnley.

Of course, these numbers are pure conjecture, and they don’t take into account the pomp and ceremony of the occasion, whereby we’d rather go to Forest than Hillsborough, nor any possible TV money, but hopefully, they make interesting reading. The full table is below.

 

ST Prices (£)Per Game (£)Av LC GateOverall Revenue (£)45% (£)Adjusted (£)
Arsenal               927          49           58,447           2,850,060           1,282,527         961,895
Manchester United               532          28           72,568           2,031,904              914,357         685,768
Spurs               807          42           42,817           1,818,596              818,368         613,776
Liverpool               514          27           52,199           1,412,120              635,454         476,591
Chelsea               595          31           37,842           1,185,052              533,273         399,955
Aston Villa               531          28           34,862              974,301              438,436         328,827
West Ham               299          16           60,000              944,211              424,895         318,671
Wolves               590          31           28,798              894,254              402,414         301,811
Leeds Utd               450          24           34,154              808,911              364,010         273,007
Newcastle United               417          22           30,082              660,221              297,099         222,824
Manchester City               350          18           30,959              570,297              256,634         192,475
Leicester City               435          23           21,163              484,521              218,035         163,526
Southampton               399          21           17,931              376,551              169,448         127,086
Sheff Weds               510          22           12,860              285,157              128,320           96,240
Brighton               545          29             8,838              253,511              114,080           85,560
Fulham               385          20           11,299              228,953              103,029           77,272
Crystal Palace               500          26             8,222              216,368                97,366           73,024
Nottingham Forest               385          20           10,142              205,509                92,479           69,359
Bournemouth               550          29             5,746              166,332                74,849           56,137
Burnley               478          21             6,329              131,396                59,128           44,346
Charlton               455          20             5,629              111,356                50,110           37,583
Blackburn Rovers               479          21             5,283              110,024                49,511           37,133
Derby County               455          20             4,747                93,908                42,259           31,694
MK Dons               474          21             1,969                40,579                18,260           13,695
Gillingham               423          18             2,127                39,072                17,582           13,187