A long-delayed encounter with Burton Albion tonight gives the Imps a chance to solidify a top-10 finish and pay back a disappointing boxing day encounter, writes Tom Morton.
At this point of the season, it all comes down to mathematics. Three points tonight would give us a nice buffer going into the last two games aiming to secure tenth place. On the other hand, Burton need one point from their last four games to be absolutely certain of safety.
That does seem a fairly leisurely ask, but it’s worth looking at the Brewer’s run in. Lose to us tonight and they face three very tough games. At the weekend they take on league leaders Plymouth who need to keep winning to guarantee their automatic place. Then for their last two games, they face Cambridge and MK Dons – both teams who, with the right results, could pass Burton at the last minute.
It’s unlikely, for sure, but manager Dino Maamria will certainly be keen to pick up that single point somewhere – and he may well see tonight’s encounter as the “easiest” of the four matches his team face.
Burton definitely had a slow start to the season. Of their first ten games they won just once (and that was in mid-September, nine games in). Till Christmas they picked up just three wins and languished right down at the bottom of the table. Of course, they then turned us over on a miserable Boxing Day encounter – which does feel quite far away.
And to be fair that was a turning point for the Brewers. By no means has this been an easy season, but at the time of our original home match (on the 21st January) my notes say they were second from bottom and I used the word “languishing” in the unpublished scout file.
In the second half of the season, Burton have picked up ten wins which has been enough to see them pretty much safe. That includes a 3-2 home win over Sheffield Wednesday a couple of weeks ago which is probably their best result of the season.
Let’s be clear though; Burton have been one of the poorest sides in our league, and on Boxing Day it felt like we essentially gifted them a win. They are conceding on average more than two goals per game away from home and they have just one clean sheet in the last ten games. Overall they have a goal difference of -23. This probably bodes pretty well for us; yes they are picking up goals as well (on avg 1.33 away) but against one of the toughest defences in the league? It’s a very winnable game on those numbers.
As you can imagine for a team in such dire straights, Maamria brought in quite a few new faces since taking over from Jimmy Floyd-Hasselbank in early September. During the January window, twelve new faces joined the squad whilst eight players were let go. Most of those looked like signings from the former regime, but they did also lose then-top-scorer Victor Adeboyejo to Bolton.
Players to watch will include Charlie Kirk, on loan from Charlton. On the left wing he’s scored a few since joining in January in and clips looks a decent threat, certainly a decent player at this level. Leading the attack is Dale Taylor. This is the nineteen-year-old’s first serious loan, after joining Nottingham Forests youth setup in 2020. He seems to have done well, leading the Brewer’s attack for the second half of the season and putting away four goals – potentially a talent worth tracking.
Overall you feel today is more than just a winnable game. Recent encounters haven’t just been good performances, but felt like very manageable games – and I saw on Twitter recently a stat that says we are about the fourth best-performing team in the league over the last six games. With a top-ten finish within our grasp tonight feels like the opportunity to extend our run and set up for the close season.
You must be logged in to post a comment.