Rest of the Bottom Half
20th Shrewsbury Town (19th)
Ins – Luke Leahy, Matthew Pennington, Ryan Bowman, Mark Marosi, David Davis, George Nurse
Out – Scott Golbourne, David Edwards, Ro-Shaun Williams, Sean Goss, Ryan Sears, Brad Walker, Donald Love, Curtis Main, David Davis, James Rowland, Ryan Barnett, Leon Clarke
Shrewsbury were the unluckiest club when it came to Covid last year and Steve Cotterill went to hell and back with his own suffering. It’s great he’s fully recovered and back in the hot seat, but I think a season of struggle lies in wait. They struggled for goals home and away last season and I’m not convinced Ryan Bowman is the answer, nor Daniel Udoh who has done well in pre-season. They will be robust and tough to beat, which could be the difference between survival and relegation.
19th Cheltenham Town (21st)
Ins – Owen Evans, Elliott Bonds, Callum Wright, Taylor Perry
Out – Alex Addai, Dan Bowry, Tahvon Campbell, Tom Chamberlain, Chris Clements
I see a bit of the Danny Cowley in Michael Duff, in that he knows how he wants to play and he sticks to that plan. They were champions of League Two and rightly so last season. It was no accident, they were the best team and they’ve kept the bulk of that squad together. They’re organised, hard to beat and they are unlikely to cave against bigger opposition. The key is holding on to Duff, he’s a manager I shouted (when pushed) as one I’d like at Lincoln if we were to ever lose our boss, and I stand by that. He’ll move up eventually, but if it isn’t this season I expect the Robins to survive.
18th AFC Wimbledon (20th)
Ins – Darius Charles, Zaki Oualah, Aaron Cosgrave, George Marsh, Luke McCormick, Aaron Pressley, Henry Lawrence, Dapo Mebude
Out – Archie Proctor, Joe Pigott, Callum Reilly, Shane McLoughlin, Luke O’Neill
I’ve seen some tipping Wimbledon for the drop: no chance. In fact, as I’m typing this, I’m concerned I haven’t got them far enough up the table, because I saw good things from them at the end of the season. They happily created chances, with an xG of two or more in eight of their last nine matches (we kept them to 0.32). I say xG is a good indication of a team doing well, and success comes not from individuals alone, but good processes. I think they have that, and will be clear of the bottom six. How clear depends on them avoiding them finding an adequate replacement for Joe Pigott amongst the new arrivals.
17th Doncaster Rovers (15th)
Ins – Ben Close, Kyle Knoyle, Ro-Shaun Williams, Jordi Hiwula, Tiago Cukur, Aiden Barlow, Matt Smith
Out – Brad Halliday, Reece James, Danny Amos, Madger Gomes, Ian Lawlor, James Coppinger
We will beat Doncaster at some point this season, and what a relief it will be! They have won six of our last six encounters, a run going back to the days of Yeo and Taylor-Fletcher. Whilst we haven’t done well against them of late, they’re now going through a transitional period, not relying on loans as they have in the past. I’m not sure how well Ritchie Wellens will settle back into League One, and it will take him time to mould his squad. I think this season for them will be like the first six months of Michael’s reign for us, one of experiments, development and evolution. Won’t go down, but will have little to play for beyond February.
16th Burton Albion (13th)
Ins – Cameron Borthwick Jackson, Omari Patrick, Deji Oshilaja, Bryn Morris, Louis Moult, Fraser Blake-Tracey, Tom O’Connor, Conor Shaughnessy, Ellery Balcombe, Jacob Maddox, Aaron Amadi-Holloway
Out – Colin Daniel, Jevan Anderson, John-Joe O’Toole, Owen Gallacher, Neal Eardley, Stephen Quinn, Luke Varney, Mike Fondop, Reece Hutchinson, Ben Fox, Tom Armitage, Ben Hart
Played four, won for, aggregate score 11-3. That’s our record against the Brewers under Michael and it’s one he’ll look forward to building upon this season. I confess, my opinion on Burton has changed after listening to the NTT20 podcast. I was under the impression their recruitment had been strong, but with Moult injured, it’s been average in places. Everyone looks at Hasselbaink’s form when he took over a manager, but he took 17 points from a possible 39 at the end of the season, and the squad isn’t that much better. They’ll be safe, but calls of a promotion run are built on foundations of sand and, like I had, incorrect perceptions.
15th Crewe Alexandra (18th)
Ins – Chris Long, Shaun MacDonald, Kayne Ramsey, Tommie Hoban, Callum McFadzean
Out – Omar Beckles, Ryan Wintle, Eddie Nolan, Daniel Powell, Olly Lancashire
There are lots of people tipping Crewe to struggle this season, but I’m not one of them. What I like about them, apart from the three wins we took last season, is the constant evolution under David Artell. I remember going there and hammering them 4-1 in 2017/18, thinking they were doomed under him – they’ve haven’t been as bad as that since. They were poor at ours last season (3-0), but those one-off games are often sandwiched between four or five very good performances. Also, looking at their recruitment is only half of the story – you never know what gem they’re going to pull out of that academy next, and their secret weapon is more likely to be a lad they’ve developed themselves than one they’ve signed.
14th Accrington Stanley (14th)
Ins – Harry Pell, John O’Sullivan, Joel Mumbongo, James Trafford, Archie Proctor, Liam Coyle, Joe Hardy, Josh Woods, Jack Nolan
Out – Mark Hughes, Joe Maguire, Lamine Kaba Sherif, Jack Bolton, Reagan Ogle, Zehn Mohammed
Bold prediction: no team with Dion Charles and Colby Bishop up top will struggle in League One. It matters not they’re a ‘small’ club in terms of stature, nor that they always seem to harness the underdog mentality to good effect. They’re an established League One club with probably the best manager at this level at taking seemingly average footballers and turning them into a superb unit. I think the standard has gone up a bit this year, and a top six challenge would be a big ask, but the bottom four won’t be embracing them either.
13th Gillingham (17th)
Ins – Olly Lee, Ben Reeves, Max Ehmer, David Tutonda, Danny Lloyd, Aaron Chapman, Rhys Bennett, Daniel Phillips, Jamie Cumming
Out – Jack Bonham, Jordan Graham, Sacha Bastien, Tyreke Johnson, Connor Ogilvie, Dominic Samuel, Matty Willock
As usual, the team with the smallest budget anywhere in the English Football League have recruited relatively well and will use their unique style to upset many apple carts, hopefully not starting with us tomorrow. I’ve actually picked them as my dark horses for a top six run, because of him. Evans is a throwback, a man who probably doesn’t believe half of what comes out of his own mouth, who is so seemingly detached from reality that he should exist in another dimension. However, he knows how not to lose football matches and nobody likes playing against Gillingham. In my eyes, they’ll never go down with him at the helm, it just depends if their football appeals to fans when (or if) they get stranded in the no-man’s-land of 13th all season.
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