A few weeks ago in commentary, there were a lot of questions asked about the team’s attitude. There was a comment about us being ‘on the beach’ before we drew with promotion-chasing Charlton away, and I’m sure there were fears from some who listen and don’t always watch, that we might be on the beach again.
Well, while a lot of people were on the beach yesterday, there was no fear of City being there. The first half was excellent, a showing of what we should expect next season (and what I fear we perhaps should have shown more of post-January through until early March), while the second half we were a little more resilient, but no less impressive.
We didn’t create a huge amount in the second period, just two efforts, but one came from someone I’ll term as the man of the moment. Freddie had played well, but came off on 65 minutes for James Collins, who will almost certainly start on Monday. Collins took up a position for a free kick, and Reeco Hackett delivered. It was a decent ball, but it needed a top-quality centre forward to get on the end of it, and luckily, that’s what we have. Collins’ header was perfect, down into the ground so that it bounced up and over the keeper’s despairing dive. That’s why he played in the Championship, and it was a little flash of why we should be quietly excited for next season.
We’ve always needed that sort of striker, but I think we’ve shied away from the veteran in the past. How often have we seen it, though, an ageing striker making a big difference in the lower divisions? I go back to Jack Lester and Michael Bridges, but even this season, Lee Gregory was great for Mansfield early doors. Collins is different class, a player who many thought might be impact from the bench, but who looks to me to be the focal point of our attack next season.
Just perhaps not Saturday/Tuesday. Remember that, when the team drops on a wet and windy night at Field Mill next season.
After that it was just a show of resilience. Reading have some real quality in their ranks, but perhaps lack the steel we’ve now added. They need a Tendayi Darikwa, Ethan Erhahon and James Collins to help guide these younger players, and help balance out the flair they have with some strength, dare I say. If they do get taken over, I’d back Reading for a top-three finish with some good recruitment, and towards the end they did get forward a bit. Not a huge amount though – xG had us winning 1-0. We won 1-0.
Rightly or wrongly, I do love xG, and I find real solace in the fact that we’re sixth in the xG table. That’s not just on xG created, but on individual games, on a game-by-game basis. Okay, we’ve underperformed both xG for and against, but it underlines that we’re doing things the right way, but haven’t always had the finishing touch, and occasionally we’ve exposed a soft underbelly. I feel there’s the makings of a good side in here, no need for wholesale changes. It feels like an unseasoned dish in a restaurant. You know it’s good, but it just needs something adding.
Is that Sam Clucas? Joe Gardner? Something else? I don’t know, but what I do know is we haven’t really missed Paudie O’Connor since his suspension. I did a bit of number crunching, obviously, and we’ve lost him for seven games this season through suspension – our record in those seven fixtures is three wins, three draws and a defeat. That’s 1.71 points per game, but 1.28 goals conceded per game. With him in, across 36 matches, we’ve averaged 1.27 points per game, conceding 1.13 goals per game. I like Paudie, and I’d love him to stay, but the stats don’t suggest he will be irreplaceable. Also, the games he’s missed include Charlton, Reading, Barnsley and Peterborough away, plus Huddersfield at home, all good sides.
That’s why yesterday gives me hope for the future. That win, it wasn’t a one-off. We outperformed our opponent in terms of xG, but the numbers say we’ve done that plenty this season. We’re all scared of losing the captain, but the numbers suggest we can absorb that and still be a decent side. We’ve conceded sloppy goals, but yesterday was another clean sheet, a solid keeper performance and a resolute defensive one.
It’s strange, because I know some fans don’t feel the love for this Imps side, much like many didn’t for Michael Appleton. It could be the form between January and February which cost us our play-off ambitions. It could be the Sam Clucas transfer not turning into the fairytale everyone hoped. It could be because we have suits and ties, such as Jez and Liam, that for some reason get some sections of the support frothing at the mouth. I’m the other way of course. I see recent performances as reflective of how we’ve got something to build on. I see the signing of James Collins as a reason to be positive about next season. I have no issue with our wider recruitment, nor the way the club is run.
Funny, we’re all looking at the same thing, but see something different.
The only thing we cannot see that is different is the cold, hard facts from yesterday. We beat Reading, a top-six contender, and we did so deservedly, with a strong performance from back to front. That’s fact, but the rest is up for interpretation.
Apologies, turns out I did go all Coco Pops on you, after all.
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