Is There a Manager of the Month Curse?

The Manager of the Month nominees for September have been announced, and it’s no surprise our own head coach, Michael Skubala, is among those listed.

He should be a shoo-in, given that we we the only side undefeated in September, but I guess you never really know. The announcement will be made on Friday, meaning if he wins, he’ll avoid the ‘curse’ weekend as we’re not in action.

Every time there is an award nomination, the so-called curse gets rolled out. I did an article in the past on the curse, and concluded that there was evidence that clubs statistically don’t win matches after their manager is honoured.

Has that changed since March 2024?

Oh no @Staceywestblog the curse of manager of the month award 🤣🤣 https://t.co/ZmNwbJVN7P
— Sam 🔴⚪️🔴⚪️ (@SammyImp) October 8, 2025

I have gone back four seasons in League One as a sample. Granted, to get a full picture, we’d need to look at every award across every division, but frankly, I still don’t have the time.

Still, this feels like a decent section to assess.

League One Manager of the Month

There have been 37 awards given over my chosen time period, starting with Lee Johnson for August in September 2021 and finishing with Brian Barry-Murphy for August, announced this September. The evidence actually suggests there is a curse of sorts! I know, I can’t believe it either. However, these are the facts.

In 2021/22 two managers lost the game immediately after their award. One was Liam Manning, the September winner, and the other was Gareth Ainsworth. Painfully for Sir Gareth, the game he lost was the play-off final! Only two managers were able to win the game after their award – Danny Cowley in December after getting the November award and Ryan Lowe the month before with Plymouth.

The other winners, Lee Johnson (twice), Liam Manning, Paul Warne, and Steven Schumacher, all drew the game after winning the award. Johnson’s draw in September was the only game in eight that his side did not win, and it came against Fleetwood, hardly a powerhouse of the division.

In 2022/23, the results are equally as mixed. Michael Duff (November and February) and Steven Schumacher (September) were the only managers to win after receiving their award. Duff (again) lost his first game after picking up the December award, but in fairness, he had also lost the two previous before being nominated. Paul Warne (January) also lost after getting the award. Danny Cowley (August), Steven Schumacher (October) and Kieran McKenna (March and April) all drew their next games. The two draws for McKenna were the only two games they failed to win in 15, pointing absolutely to a curse!

After winning the October award, Schumacher’s draw in November was against us.

In 2023/24, the ‘curse’ was not been as evident. There were nine winners, and five won their next game – Liam Manning, John Mousinho, Ian Evatt and Paul Warne (twice). Only Ian Evatt, John Mousinho and Richie Wellens have won the award and have not won their next game, meaning the percentage is quite a bit higher. Matt Bloomfield, the final winner, won it with no games remaining.

Last season, three managers lost their first game after winning the award: Phil Parkinson at Wrexham (3-1 to Birmingham), Steve Bruce at Blackpool (2-1 against Barnsley) and Richie Wellens (harshly, 2-1 to Manchester City in the FA Cup). Wellens also drew a game, Derby in the FA Cup, but won on penalties. Parkinson also drew a game after winning the award, while Matt Bloomfield (twice) and Chris Davies won their next games after the award (Davies beating us, 1-0). Davies also won it in April and had no game after, but they did draw on the opening day of this season. Not sure if that counts!

Overall, since the start of the 21/22 season, after winning Manager of the Month, 37% of managers have won their next game, which was the same percentage when I last did this in March 2024. 28% have lost, slightly up, and 34% have drawn. Or, to put it another way, 62% of managers have failed to win their next game, which is again, the same percentage as March 2024.

Is that a curse? If you consider they’ve been awarded the accolade for winning games the previous month, it does seem quite a high number, and it seems to be consistent.

Think of it this way – you’d almost always accept that a three-way split in terms of outcomes – a win, a draw or defeat. But, when you consider the award is given for performing well, usually winning games, statistically, you’d expect those managers to be more likely to win their next matches.

Curse? Maybe.