League One Promotion History – Who Stays In The Championship?

I was asked on the Patreon page if I could put together a statistical analysis of promoted clubs from League One, looking at how they fare after their promotion.

With our strong start to the season, some fans are looking ahead and wondering what might happen if we were to go up. How do teams get on in the division above, not just the next season, but in terms of pure longevity in the Championship?

As we know, with parachute payments, the playing field isn’t always level, and clubs seem to struggle. The big question is this: do they? Or does the eye test tell us a different story? If we did go up, what might happen next season?

Firstly, it is important to remember that every club and every season is different. Relegation isn’t always just based on points, either, with clubs dropping out of the Championship due to points deductions, etc.

However, the numbers are here for you to peruse from the last ten seasons – that’s ten seasons from 2014/15, so we can get an idea of where the promoted club finished the following campaign.

First Season

Of the 30 clubs promoted from League One since 2014/15, only 27% have come straight back down, and only once have two promoted clubs been relegated at the same time. Those relegated are MK Dons (2016), Wigan (2017), Rotherham (2019), Charlton (2020), Rotherham and Wycombe (2021), Peterborough (2022) and Wigan (2023).

On just two occasions has a relegated club finished bottom of the Championship – Rotherham in 2021 and Wigan in 2023. Perhaps to spin it in a ‘glass half full’ way, 73% of promoted clubs stay up in their first campaign.

One club has been promoted in their first season, Ipswich, which speaks as much about the size of the club as anything.

The last two seasons are the first since 2018 where no promoted club has been immediately relegated again, with Plymouth, Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday keeping their places in 2024, and Portsmouth, Derby and Oxford staying up last season.

The average finishing position of a promoted club in their first season is 18th. Interestingly, League One champions average an 18th-placed finish, second-place average 19th and the play-off winners, on average, finish 15th.

Is the gap closing?

Second Season

Second-season syndrome is definitely a thing that should worry Derby, Oxford and Portsmouth, as another six of the 27 promoted clubs were relegated in their second season. Those clubs were Burton and Barnsley (2018), Bolton (2019), Wigan (2019), Blackpool (2023) and Rotherham (2024). That means of the promoted clubs, 53% are relegated by their second season (remember, of the 30, three are in their second season now).

If we were to add the 2013/14 teams in (Wolves, Brentford and Rotherham), all three stayed up in their second season, so the ten-year average would be around 54% of clubs promoted staying up beyond their second season, still a decent number and, I’d imagine, a lot better than the Premier League.

Only 10% have been promoted by their second season; Sheffield United gained promotion in 2019. The average place for a second-season side is 16th.

Third Season

It does seem that if you survive for a third season, then you’re in a good place. Of the 30 teams promoted, obviously, we don’t know how six will do in their third season (Ipswich have gone up and down again). However, only one team have been relegated after a third season since 2015, that being Barnsley in 2019.

Interestingly, getting to a third season does seem to offer some stability. Of the eight teams that lasted until their third season, the average place was 10th, but that is skewed by Barnsley. Taking them out, the average placing is seventh – Preston finishing there in 2018, preceded by Bristol City (11th, 2018) and followed by Millwall (eighth, 2020), Blackburn (15th, 2021), Luton (sixth, 2022), Coventry (fifth, 2023), Hull (seventh, 2024) and Sunderland (fourth, 2025).

Conclusion

I’d say clubs of a certain size tend to last beyond their third season. Bristol City, Preston North End, Millwall, Blackburn Rovers and Coventry are all big clubs and all are now Championship staples.

Which clubs that are Lincoln’s size have been promoted in the last ten years? MK Dons, Burton, Rotherham, Wycombe, Peterborough and Oxford probably fall into that category, and all bar Oxford have come back down, all within two seasons. Going further back, Doncaster and Yeovil are similar sizes and both spent a single year in the second tier.

Still, every club is different, so you never quite know what’s going to happen in the future.