Whenever a Championship job comes up, teams in League One who are doing well panic a bit.
The thought is this: will our manager get a call? It happened a lot with Danny and Nicky; we feared calls from Sheff Weds and Ipswich, and eventually got one from Huddersfield. Last season, Wycombe’s run to promotion was seemingly derailed when Matt Bloomfield left, while at one stage, Michael Appleton was linked with West Brom.
I’ve noticed Michael Skubala has started popping up on bookies’ odds for Championship jobs – he’s been on the list for Norwich and Swansea in recent weeks. He’s often a fair way down, anything from 16/1 to 33/1, but it shows he’s doing something right that bookies are trying to tempt money from punters with his name.
In our Patreon Discord channel, it was mentioned that a few managers actually go and do well in the Championship after leaving League One, and I thought it smelled like a good article. So, I went through all of the managerial changes in the third tier over the last decade, picked those that were between League One and Championship sides, and then worked out their win ratio.
The outcome? Even the most successful could be seen to have failed!
Here are the highlights
The Good
The best manager in terms of win ratio when stepping up to the Championship is Darren Moore, but that doesn’t really tell a story. He left promotion-chasing Doncaster for relegation-haunted Sheffield Wednesday and was relegated a couple of months later.
His win ratio is 51% in total, but only 20% in the Championship. He did win promotion with Wednesday, eventually, but in terms of success, it’s a blurred story.
The same goes for the next best win ratio, Neil Harris. He was sacked by Gillingham in League Two, appointed by League One Cambridge and then jumped to Millwall in February 2024. His win ratio was decent, 42.9%, but he left after just 35 games, days after claiming some fans were ‘thickos’.
Dean Smith is by far the most successful when all things are considered. He left Walsall for Brentford in 2015 and earned a 39.9% win ratio with the Bees. He built what was described as an entertaining side on a shoestring budget, finished ninth twice in a row and is credited with being a driving force behind their promotion to the Premier League.
The Bad
The worst three will surprise very few. Gareth Ainsworth was flying high with Wycombe when he left for QPR, a side he’d been caretaker at twice. It just didn’t work for our hero at Loftus Road, and with just five wins in 28, he was sacked. He’s since been at Shrewsbury and is now building momentum at Gillingham in League Two.
Nathan Jones is a success story coming out of League One. He’s managed in the Premier League and is now doing well in the Championship with Stoke. If anything, he’s evidence that staying put is the best thing to do. The Luton side he left were promoted anyway, and his spell at Stoke was a disaster, with just six wins in 38. He went back to Luton, got them in the Championship play-offs, left again only to flop at Southampton. However, he stayed put at Charlton when Cardiff came knocking, and look what happened.
The worst manager to make the move is Paul Hurst. I say ‘worst manager’ but that’s unfair – he was excellent at Shrewsbury, taking them to Wembley twice. He then went to a post-Mick McCarthy Ipswich and bombed, with one win in 15. He has since struggled at Shrewsbury, Grimsby and Scunthorpe United.
The Average
The average spell for a manager coming out of League One is 75 games, with a 36% win ratio. In Lincoln terms, that’s Peter Jackson levels (he was 34.1%). It’s not bad, but few do really well.
Some are boosted by relegation. Steve Evans left Stevenage for Rotherham, got relegated and then struggled again, so while win ratio can be used, context also needs to be brought in.
In terms of the ‘next big things, ‘ very few achieve what they hope to when they leave. Matt Bloomfield, Ruben Selles and Danny Cowley all managed fewer than 50 matches with their new clubs.
Some managers are successful, but not immediately. Rob Edwards only lasted 11 matches at Watford after leaving Forest Green, but has now jumped back into the Premier League for a second time. Phil Parkinson was okay at Bolton, but is back in the Championship now with Wrexham.
Ryan Lowe and Lee Johnson went over the 100-game mark without relegations on their CV, while Grant McCann took Hull down and back up in his 136-game tenure.
The Clubs Left Behind
It’s widely accepted that the big losers are the clubs that get left behind. We all feel that teams are cost position when a manager goes, but the truth is very different. In fact, only two clubs have dropped ten places or more since losing their manager to a Championship side. Shrewsbury, who finished third under Hurst, and then 18th the following season. However, he left in midseason.
The biggest drop off of the last ten years is actually us. Danny left us in fifth, and Michael Appleton guided us to 15th, a ten-place fall. Next worst is Doncaster, sixth when Darren Moore left and 15th at the end of the season.
Typically, the change in position is no worse than three places (Exeter, Wycombe losing Bloomfield, Oxford, and Doncaster losing McCann). On six occasions, a club has dropped one or two places, on three occasions not at all (assuming League Two champions Forest Green’s position of 24th post-Edwards were the same).
Luton post-Jones and Walsall post-Smith both climbed a place, Barnsley climbed six places after Lee Johnson left, and MK Dons went from 13th under Russell Martin to third under Liam Manning.
Win Ratios
| Team From | Manager | Team To | Date | P | W | D | L | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster Rovers | Darren Moore | Sheffield Wednesday | 01-Mar-21 | 129 | 66 | 34 | 29 | 51.2% |
| Cambridge United | Neil Harris | Millwall | 21-Feb-24 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 42.9% |
| Walsall | Dean Smith | Brentford | 30-Nov-15 | 143 | 57 | 35 | 51 | 39.9% |
| Doncaster Rovers | Grant McCann | Hull City | 21-Jun-19 | 136 | 53 | 29 | 54 | 39.0% |
| Barnsley | Lee Johnson | Bristol City | 06-Feb-16 | 217 | 84 | 54 | 79 | 38.7% |
| Plymouth Argyle | Ryan Lowe | Preston North End | 07-Dec-21 | 125 | 47 | 31 | 47 | 37.6% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | Matt Bloomfield | Luton Town | 14-Jan-25 | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 36.4% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | Russell Martin | Swansea City | 01-Aug-21 | 99 | 36 | 27 | 36 | 36.4% |
| Stevenage | Steve Evans | Rotherham United | 17-Apr-24 | 50 | 18 | 11 | 21 | 36.0% |
| AVERAGE | AVERAGE | AVERAGE | 75 | 27 | 20 | 28 | 36.0% | |
| Oxford United | Liam Manning | Bristol City | 07-Nov-23 | 85 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 34.1% |
| Lincoln City | Danny Cowley | Huddersfield Town | 09-Sep-19 | 40 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 32.5% |
| Reading | Rubén Sellés | Hull City | 06-Dec-24 | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 32.1% |
| Bradford City | Phil Parkinson | Bolton Wanderers | 10-Jun-16 | 157 | 49 | 34 | 74 | 31.2% |
| Barnsley | Michael Duff | Swansea City | 22-Jun-23 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 28.6% |
| Burton Albion | Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink | QPR | 04-Dec-15 | 47 | 13 | 19 | 15 | 27.7% |
| Forest Green Rovers | Rob Edwards | Watford | 11-May-22 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 27.3% |
| Exeter City | Matt Taylor | Rotherham United | 04-Oct-22 | 55 | 10 | 18 | 27 | 18.2% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | Gareth Ainsworth | Queens Park Rangers | 21-Feb-23 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 17.9% |
| Luton Town | Nathan Jones | Stoke City | 09-Jan-19 | 38 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 15.8% |
| Shrewsbury Town | Paul Hurst | Ipswich Town | 30-May-18 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 6.7% |
Placings
| Team From | Manager | Position When Left | Position End of Season | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury Town | Paul Hurst | 3 | 18 | -15 |
| Lincoln City | Danny Cowley | 5 | 15 | -10 |
| Doncaster Rovers | Darren Moore | 6 | 14 | -8 |
| Wycombe Wanderers | Matt Bloomfield | 2 | 5 | -3 |
| Oxford United | Liam Manning | 2 | 5 | -3 |
| Exeter City | Matt Taylor | 11 | 14 | -3 |
| Doncaster Rovers | Grant McCann | 6 | 9 | -3 |
| Barnsley | Michael Duff | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| Wycombe Wanderers | Gareth Ainsworth | 7 | 9 | -2 |
| Reading | Rubén Sellés | 6 | 7 | -1 |
| Cambridge United | Neil Harris | 17 | 18 | -1 |
| Plymouth Argyle | Ryan Lowe | 6 | 7 | -1 |
| Burton Albion | Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Stevenage | Steve Evans | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Forest Green Rovers | Rob Edwards | 24 | 24 | 0 |
| Bradford City | Phil Parkinson | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Luton Town | Nathan Jones | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Walsall | Dean Smith | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Barnsley | Lee Johnson | 12 | 6 | 6 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | Russell Martin | 13 | 3 | 10 |
Conclusion
It’s not always cut and dried, but rarely does a manager make the step up and be successful. It has happened, but I think the choice of club is very important. QPR, Swansea, Bristol City and Rotherham have often dipped into this division with mixed success.
I’d suggest moving to a ‘big’ club, like Stoke or Sheffield Wednesday, can be a challenge, but the right club with the right ambition, such as Preston and Bristol City, is a route to regular success.
As for finding a way to regular Premier League football, I’m not sure there is a path from League One through the Championship, as only four have achieved it, and only Dean Smith and Russell Martin on a smooth trajectory without a sacking.
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