The right result against Pompey today could, with other scorelines in our favor, see us moving above our opponents into tenth place, writes Tom Morton
Portsmouth’s visit to the Bank might have been a mass homecoming for ex-Imps. As it is we will likely see Joe Morell (player of the season for 19/20) and Sean Raggett (that Burnley goal!) on the pitch. We won’t see Josh Griffiths between the sticks after he was recalled by West Brom in late January. And, of course, the Cowley’s will not be gracing the opposition dugout.
Danny and Nicky were let go after a disappointing 3-1 loss to Charlton on the first day of 2023 capped a difficult period. Portsmouth did start the season brightly. The first ten games saw them win six, draw three and lose only one. After that, though, they managed just one win in fourteen outings. That run took them from potential contenders for an automatic slot to mid-table.
Since bringing in first-time manager John Mousinho their form as improved. Wins against Exeter, Burton and Fleetwood are counter-balanced by losses to Plymouth, Bolton and Peterborough. Despite what looks like a turn in form, I’d say those results reflect the mid-table position Pompey are in.
Squad Changes
In the January window, apart from being forced to switch Goalkeepers, Portsmouth didn’t do a huge amount of business. However, they did bring in a couple of defensive players who have slotted straight into the starting eleven.
Ryley Towler is a well-rated product of Bristol City’s academy who has been with Wimbledon in the fourth tier for the first part of the season. Towler signed a three-year deal and looks to have been a target for the club. In addition, Di’Shon Bernard joined on loan from Man United. He’s most recently had experience with Hull City in the 21/22 season, playing twenty-six times at the Championship level.
Alongside Ragett and Connor Ogilvie (who I do rate), this is a fairly solid backline to close the season out with. The other bit of business worth mentioning is the last-minute move of Paddy Lane from Fleetwood to Pompey. Lane is a very handy player who impressed in our 2-2 draw with the Cods back in late August.
Key Stats
Portsmouth have a pretty consistent home and away form, picking up thirty-something percent of wins in each case. However, their recent away form is pretty poor. They picked up an away win at Fleetwood a few weeks ago but you then have to go back to late October for another win. Obviously, our home record stands for itself which continues to suggest an edge for us.
By the way in case you are interested. Currently only Lincoln, Burnley, and Newcastle have not lost a game at home this season across all four tiers. Internationally only about seventy-five teams have achieved this feat and we sit seventh in that table by matches played. That’s third in the table in England, after Burnley and Notts County (and thankfully above Wrexham!).
Hopefully I haven’t put the mockers on us. But our resurgent form should prove problematic for Pompey today. We are looking a lot more threatening in front of goal. Against Accrington and Bristol, we managed twenty-two and nineteen shots respectively. When our average for the season is under twelve this is a big shift.
Tactics
Pompey look likely to line up 4-3-3 with Morell and Lane on either side of Midfield. They seem to have limited injury worries, with Benard and Marlon Pack recovering from niggles, so should field a strong team. Tactically they don’t look the paciest side, preferring a slower build-up and working the ball into the box. Cutting out the first balls, something we are pretty sold at this season, will potentially snuff out their main threat.
Equally going forward, pace and a high press is something they look to struggle with. Against Plymouth, they couldn’t contain the forwards either on the break or under pressure playing out from the back.
You can still see overtures of the Cowleys in their approach, and as much as that can be effective I think we know how to beat it if we can take the game to them. Top-scorer Colby Bishop (twelve league goals) is handy in the box, but take him out of the game and the rest of the team are not prolific in front of goals (the next highest scorers have only four each – and one of them is Ogilvie).
Head to Head
Our long-term record against Portsmouth isn’t great. Yes, we picked up a draw earlier in the season and a win away from home in January 2021. But since 2019 they’ve recorded five wins, and not only that have scored more than once in four of those encounters.
Prior to our recent history, it was back in the 1980s we last faced Pompey, in then division three. In fact, through the 60s, 70s, and 80s we did face off quite a bit and Portsmouth generally came out the victor. Overall we’ve managed just six wins to their thirteen (sharing six draws). Not a standout performance.
Indeed to set the scene, our first two games against Portsmouth were in 1939 and 1952. Both FA Cup ties, Pompey walked away 4-0 winners on both occasions.
Today’s game should be a good one. The resurgent form and strong away following should mean a full crowd (correct me if I am wrong, but this is the first game the Season ticket buy-back is in operation?). With a good atmosphere, a decent amount at stake, and two teams with strong performance trajectories I’d expect a good encounter.
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