In the aftermath of our defeat against Wycombe Wanderers, there seemed to be a degree of internet anger directed at Tom Bayliss.
I did not think he had the best game, but his numbers actually held up well. Of course, some will hide behind the fabled and untrustworthy eye test to say they know better, but the truth is that Tom Bayliss is a far better player than he seems to be getting credit for.
I said he is suffering from the same issue that McGrandles had last season, and that is, he is not his midfield partner. McGrandles was not Erhahon, and as such, he took a bit of stick. This season, the former Falkirk man is standing out, and by comparison, Bayliss is not him.
When we lose, there has to be a reason. I have noticed that I am guilty of it. On Saturday, we played well in the second half, but people lash out because we came away with nothing. Bayliss has been on the end of some of that in recent weeks, but the fact remains he is still one of our best players.
Not only that, but he has a unique profile within the squad that has no direct replacement. Before I deal with why he is so important, let me explain why, in my opinion, Ivan Varfolomeev is not a like-for-like replacement.
We play with two holding midfielders, double sixes if you want to give it the modern label. The belief is that we play with two men sitting in front of the back four in a 4-2-3-1 formation, like Alex Woodyard and Michael Bostwick used to do for Danny Cowley. That is not entirely accurate.
Formations are far more fluid now, and while Tom Bayliss and Conor McGrandles appear to be a duo in the middle, at times the formation is more of a 4-1-3-2. That is when our ten pushes forward to join the other striker, and penetration comes from one of our so-called dual sixes. That is Bayliss. At other times, while we play 4-2-3-1, you see Tom pushing further forward, more akin to a traditional number eight than a holding midfielder.
I liken him a little to Tom Pett in the 2018/19 title-winning side. Pett did not hold the midfield, but he played with back to goal just as easily as he did facing it. That is Bayliss. He is not Jack Moylan, a rampaging ten. He is not Freddie Draper, a robust target ten. He is not Conor McGrandles or Ivan Varfolomeev, the mopper-upper looking to break play. He is unique, and judgment should not be based on whether he is as good as our record signing.
I appreciate many judge using the eye test, and I do the same. That has proven to be wrong when I have singled out Conor McGrandles in the past as a weak link when he is not. I did it with Tom this weekend, and I have done it with others in the past. You have to understand that Michael Skubala does know what he is doing. He knows the players better than you and me, and he knows the game better than you or me. If he picks Tom Bayliss every week, then it is because he is critical to the side. It really is that simple.
But do not take my word for it. Why not take the word of industry-appreciated Wyscout, a stats program used to recruit players, to scout opposition, and generally accepted as a solid and robust numbers package that does not just say xG is good or whatever else stat-o-philes fear from their numbers.
Wyscout has a system called Player Indexes, which takes a collection of numbers across the League One season and works out the best midfielders in the competition. The Wyscout Index for midfielders is not a single unified score, but a system that combines various metrics to evaluate performance. For midfielders, top performers are identified by a mix of offensive and defensive contributions, including goals, chances created, key passes, pressing attempts, duels won, and the successful progression of play.
It is comprehensive, and it ranks Tom Bayliss as the tenth-best holding midfielder in the division, just two places below Conor McGrandles. That is above big hitters such as Josh Sheehan at Bolton (17th), Sean Clare at Orient (21st), Jordan Houghton at Stevenage (23rd), and Ethan Erhahon at Bolton (not in the top 28, where the ranking finishes).
What tempers those numbers, in my opinion, is that Bayliss is a more fluid player, not the out-and-out midfield enforcer, but one of the few who can get on the ball and progress play. Look at the chance on Saturday, where Collins should have laid it off to Ben House. If you watch it all the way back, that move is started by Tom Bayliss. He might not be on the end of an assist, and he would certainly like to add a goal or two, but his contribution goes beyond that. Should we criticise him because our actual ten is not, until Moylan came on, carrying the ball into the area? I do not think so.
My one criticism would be that he probably does need to be a little further forward at times, and perhaps his role is one of that dictates whether we are deep or attacking. He has not had a touch in the area since we played Rotherham, and since Orient, he has had more clearances (eight) than touches in the area (two) or shot assists (one). That is perhaps more reflective of the games than of his ability, but maybe with his ability, we could see him force it more. However, if he does, would he leave McGrandles exposed, and the whole game plan break down?
There is no doubt that when he can get further forward, and we are attacking, he can play a key role. He created eight shots in five matches in August and September, but just four since the Chelsea game. That says he is maybe not finding himself forward enough, but his other numbers are good: his dribbles have a 62.5% success rate, which is not bad at all.
I am not saying I think he has been outstanding, but he hasn’t been bad at all. I think there is more to come, and his passing accuracy in key areas can improve (final third 60.5% and forward passes 61.5% in League One), and his set pieces might have dropped off a little. Incidentally, against Wycombe, a game where he only played 60 minutes, both of those passing metrics were above average but in the same quantity (71% to the final third and 77% forward success).
However, I think he has that drive from midfield that, when utilised properly, is utterly crucial to the fluid system we play, and at present, his skillset is unique in a squad where like-for-like replacements cover almost every other position.
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