Goal Difference

Goal difference could come into play. Hull and Peterborough both have a much better goal difference than we do, Hull are +19 better and Peterborough +12, so we need to better their points in the unlikely event of automatic promotion. Sunderland are +6 better, but the tallies needed for us to finish top two really make that almost irrelevant. Below us, Blackpool are -4 on us, Charlton -9, Oxford -7, Portsmouth -9 and Doncaster -20.

Play Offs

This is a little more complicated, but try to stay with me. I’ve worked out the maximum points a team can currently get, which gives you a picture of whether they can catch us or not. I’ve only included those outside the top six, because those inside can reel us in all they want, but if we don’t drop below sixth, we’re in.

Oxford are seventh on 65 points, with nine to play for, meaning a maximum of 74. Therefore, one win will ensure they cannot catch us, as it would move us onto 75. Pompey are eighth, they’re on 65 but have 12 to play for. That means we need to get five points to reach 77, so two wins would be enough to cement our spot in the top six at their expense. Below them, Gillingham (62 with nine to play for) and MK Dons (61, nine to play for) cannot catch us. Ipswich and Accrington are both are on 61 points with 12 to play for, so they could get to 73, meaning we need two draws from five matches to essentially rule them out. Finally, Doncaster Rovers are on 60, but have 15 to play for as we do, so again we need to make up four points.

Whilst Oxford, Portsmouth and Doncaster can all catch us, the likelihood is they won’t Doncaster have won one in their last 11, with eight defeats in that time. I don’t think they’ll take much from games against Peterborough, sadly, and they’re not a serious threat to us anymore, only a mathematical one. Oxford are the biggest threat, but even if we completely collapse they have Plymouth, Shrewsbury and Burton to play. One would imagine those teams will all have little to play for, so perhaps they could get their nine points, but we only need a single win (or three draws) to not be bothered anyway. Portsmouth are the biggest threat, with Accrington to play twice, as well as Bristol Rovers and Wimbledon, they could viably get maximum points, although Stanley do still have a shout of the play offs, especially if they were to beat Pompey twice.

Of the others, Charlton have played the same games as us and are six points behind. They’re in good form, but their final five fixtures are Peterborough, Crewe, Accrington, us and Hull. Even if they do reel us in, the chances of us dropping out of the top six is small. The same goes for Blackpool, four points behind us and on the same games. They play Shrewsbury, Sunderland, Accrington, Bristol Rovers and Doncaster and it is likely only one of those sides, Sunderland, will have a great deal to play for when they do.

Sunderland

I haven’t mentioned Sunderland, because they’re stuck in limbo when it comes to us. All of the automatic promotion talk is based on us winning our game in hand, and that would take us above them anyway, so they’re not a threat in that respect. They play Blackpool, Accrington, Plymouth and Northampton in the run in, so don’t really have any bearing on us at all. They might finish above us, they might finish below us, but that is entirely down to us, there is nothing they can do to stop us being above them if we win matches.

There is a permutation that involves us and Sunderland in an automatic battle, but it is drawn out. Supposing we won three and drew two of our remaining matches, including beating Peterborough, we could be above Posh depending on their results. We’d have 83 points, and we’d assume Posh would be on 82 or fewer. Now, Sunderland could, in theory, have won all four of their games and be on 84 points. It’s unlikely, they’re without a win in five, so it is highly unlikely. still, I wanted to include it, because if it happens someone will screenshot this.

Conclusion

Keep that diary free week commencing May 17 for the play-off first leg, and again around May 21 for the second legs. After that? well, much depends but I will tell you this – Blackpool and Sunderland are coming out of form at just the wrong time, whilst we are bringing players back and looking stronger by the week. If we get to May 9 against Wimbledon with Walsh, Bridcutt and Hopper back, Grant match fit and remain injury-free across the rest of the squad, I would back us against anyone from Sunderland to Doncaster. They’re all beatable, as we have proven, and we have got to this position on half a squad. Imagine where we might have been if we hadn’t lost Grant and Walsh, or Bridcutt and Hopper?

My guess is we’ll pick up around eight from our last five matches, given how tough Hull and Posh will be away from home, and given that Charlton may have plenty to play for. That would be enough though to get us over the line and I’d like to think from there on in, we’d be as competitive as anyone else. Who knows, the dream of Championship football, the dream we thought had been snatched away a couple of weeks ago, could still become a living, breathing reality.