It isn’t easy to separate fact from fiction over the summer. I’ve seen a Twitter account from a guy claiming to be a Sun journalist with 83 followers putting a badly worded social media post out talking about Joe Taylor, and everyone believes it.
There’s a handful of people who know the facts; Rob Edwards and Mick Harford are two, Joe Taylor and his agent two others. Jez and Liam will have a good idea, as will other chasing clubs. However, for you and I, we have speculation. I appreciate that’s part of the fun of the transfer window, but let’s look at some speculation from a reasonable angle, shall we?
There are three likely scenarios for Joe Taylor, and so I’ve decided to look at each, and what that would mean for the Imps. I have then broken that down into percentage chance of us getting him, which might fuel a little debate, but hopefully sensible debate based on what we know and what we can reasonably assume.
The decision over Joe Taylor’s future is in the hands of Luton Town. There’s zero debate there, and in my eyes, there are four outcomes. Here are those outcomes, and here is what I feel they mean for us.
Luton Want Taylor At The Club
Firstly, it has to be suggested that Luton may want Joe Taylor at the club. He has played a role in pre-season, coming off the bench for them in their most recent friendly against Celta Vigo, and he scored in their opening game against Stevenage. There’s a possibility that they are keeping him around the squad, and the recent speculation has been fuelled by his name popping up in interviews and around local media, as with Michael Hortin’s chat with Michael Skubala.
Imps chances – 0%
Luton Want To Sell Taylor
If they don’t fancy him and they want to sell, we’re out. They won’t sell in the Championship, so it would have to be into League One. There’s only going to be a handful of clubs with the resources to spend the money on him. I’d imagine the fee for a striker of his ilk is around £750,000 – that’s Birmingham, Huddersfield, Bolton and Charlton all in the hunt, but Lincoln? Not a chance. If Luton want to find a buyer, then it’s highly unlikely to be Lincoln City.
Imps chances – 0%
Luton Want To Loan Taylor To Develop To Sell
This is interesting. If they see him as an asset but not one they feel will fit them, they may want to develop him to sell. If they go up to the Premier League, and he’s had a loan in League One and banged in 25 goals, they can comfortably sell to a Championship club in a year, getting more than they might right now from League One. They can’t do that now without strengthening a rival, so they may want to put him on to simmer, ready for serving in a year.
That would put us in the same position as if they wanted him to develop. The only difference here would be the remuneration. If, for instance, Bolton were willing to hit £6k a week of his wages (assuming he’s on that) and we were only able to hit £3k given our structure, Luton would have to strike a balance. Is the extra £156,000 they’d get from Bolton worth the risk of him not being a hit there? They know what we offer in terms of development, and you’d hope that Taylor likes us. A happy player is far more likely to be a success.
That said, it does make the deal more about numbers, and that begins to nudge us down the list.
Imps chances – 25%
Luton Want To Loan Taylor To Develop For Them
The fact he’s been playing could suggest they see value in him, but not for them right now. I guess if they don’t go up, and he does get a loan, then he could be Championship-ready next season. This puts us in a good position. They’re not going to loan him to a Championship rival, so it’s likely to be League One again. There will be a queue of course, and I imagine some sides will pay a bigger percentage of his wages than us, but he’s already excelled here, so we’re likely to be more of a draw. Also, would he be guaranteed a regular start at Bolton or Huddersfield? Possibly, possibly not. Here, he would.
We’d be behind clubs in terms of wages, but likely to be attractive for Luton. There’s also the Mick Harford angle; he likes us, he’s seen how we work and if they want their asset to accrue value, we do have the upper hand with him having been here.
Imps chances – 35%
Conclusion
I would suggest that the decision has yet to be made by Luton, and therefore all of the ‘in the know’ accounts are guessing, as I’m guessing here. However, there’s a difference between a guess intended to give you some context, and one intended to get you to follow someone on Twitter.
Joe’s mum has allegedly replied to someone about the Huddersfield rumours being rubbish and that someone rather ungraciously copied the message onto social media. The truth is nobody knows outside that list of four major players in the saga, and while we all think we might know what will happen, we don’t.
What I would say is it is likely to be fast moving, and once Luton make a decision, pieces will fall into place. Will, those pieces fall into place for us? Well, assuming all four scenarios are as likely, I make it around a 15% chance that Joe Taylor ends up in red and white next season.
Which is better than no chance.
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