Tight Margins: Imps 0-2 Blackpool

I know there are a section of supporters of supporters who love it when we lose, because they get to wait and see if I try to be positive about it.

They know who they are, and doubtless, they’ll be driving their taxi around Lincoln today, just eager to drop on social media and see what rose-tinted bull I’m serving up for breakfast this morning. Well, today I’m going to delight you, because despite us losing 2-0 last night, I’m happy with how we played.

Go on, get yourselves over to Twitter now, before you read on, and we’ll wait for you to pop back if you want. Go on, off you go.

Happy now? Great, so shall we get on with the review? No? You want something more to batter me over the head with properly? Okay, not a problem. The xG stats show we could, and should have won the game 2-1. Yep, that’s right, we had xG of 2.41, they had 1.54. We actually created more than we did against Posh at the weekend, and did pretty much exactly the same things as well.

I am certain there’s now there’s a second section of supporters eager to get over to Twitter for a bit of Gary-bashing. Not a problem, again, the rest of us will wait. We’ve got Bubs’ pictures to look at while you head off, we’ll still be here when you get back.

Okay, can we crack on now? I’m fairly sure there will be a group who stopped reading at xG, if they even got past us playing well. I confess xG isn’t a science, but the fact is that a respected stats website, Wyscout, believed there was more xG in our 16 shots than Blackpool’s 11. The fact is we had five more shots than we did against Peterborough, the same number on target, and had more of the ball.

In fact, statistically, there’s an argument for us being better last night than we were at the weekend. I’m not going to make that argument, I’ll leave that to Chris on the podcast, but aside from the result (the most important bit) we actually weren’t that bad at all last night. You can quote me on that.

Despite what the numbers say, I don’t think we were the better side, but few could have argued if the game had been drawn. Blackpool came out looking really lively, with lots of pace in key areas. I’ve raved about Tom Bloxham before, during a loan spell at Morecambe and when he was at Shrewsbury, and I’ll do the same again. He’s such a good player, tricky and fleet-footed, and I fully expect him to be Championship bound sooner rather than later in his career.

Ashley Fletcher has been in the Championship before and filtered down, not up, and he fired over in a frantic first few minutes. Sonny Carey had their first effort, and while it wasn’t one-way traffic in terms of possession, they had better chances. They broke at pace and were comfortable to let us have the ball, and when we did have it, they were organised enough to limit our chances.

I was a little disappointed in Ben House. He clearly picked up an early knock and didn’t come off, and he lacked mobility as we sought to break. He helped set up a chance for Draper, but it was one of those chances where Draper was looking for someone in the box, and nobody was there. He’s put his shot across Tyrer and almost scored, but it was a half chance. House did eventually go off, but it took a good half hour after the first contact, and it felt, at times, like we were playing with ten-and-a-half men. James Collins came on to a huge cheer and had our best chances later in the game.

The Blackpool goal is so frustrating to watch back. It’s just a punt upfield, as we do plenty, but it evades O’Connor. Roughan is then beaten in the air, but the ball falls harmlessly to Jacko, who makes an absolute hash of his clearance, missing the ball completely. Former Manchester United man Fletcher couldn’t believe his luck, but his smart finish, not unlike that from Collins on Saturday, felt like it was entirely our own doing.

At the other end, we were creating half chances, and Tom Bayliss was at the heart of most of our forward endeavour. Ethan Erhahon was, in my opinion, the best player on the pitch, always cool and calm, and I genuinely felt we’d be okay. I feel we would have been if we’d taken our big chance.

It was created by Roughan and Jeffries combining well, the former putting a great ball into Freddie. He’s level with the penalty spot, two defenders and the keeper in front of him, but it has to hit the target. It has to. I’m a fan of Freddie and I thought he had a good game, but if James Collins gets that chance, it’s 1-1 and game on. I’d wager nine times out of ten, if Freddie gets that chance, it hits the target. Instead, he slices it horribly, and our opportunity to draw level is gone.

Ten of our chances came in the first half and six of them were Freddie. I thought he looked hungry and battled really well, but as a striker, you’ve got to take the big chances. In the second half, we had six shots, and five of those came from James Collins. The difference? Freddie xG, in total, was 0.55. Collins was 1.41, and that’s without the offside, which we’ll come to. Is that Collins getting in a better position? Or just good fortune? Either way, I think both the strikers had decent games, but the one thing lacking, again, was actual goals.