There is just one round of games left in our EFL Trophy group, and while it is still everything to play for, qualification for the next round is more or less assured, once again.

City have only failed to get out of the group stages once since coming back into the EFL in 2017/18, and that was in 2019/20. That season, we also had Manchester United Under 21s, one of the two teams we have brushed aside in this year’s competition.

We opened with a 3-0 win against Notts County, then beat Manchester United Under 21s 3-0 to give ourselves a strong chance of getting through. Results elsewhere have (slightly) conspired against us, and a freak pair of scorelines in the next round could, in theory, see us eliminated.

This evening, Barnsley put five past Man United, but they have already lost to Notts County, 2-1. That leaves the table finely poised, with all to play for in the final round. As things stand, all four teams could still qualify.

Northern Group D

On November 4th, Notts County host Manchester United Under 21s.  That’s a huge game – Man Utd U21s would have to win BIG if they were to go through, we’re talking minimum 6-0. If, as expected, Notts County win, they’re looking to overhaul a plus-eight goal difference, although that would be reliant on our game against Barnsley a week later.

If that game is drawn and goes to penalties, we’re through. If Man Utd win, we’re through. The only outcome that can stop us going through is a big Notts win. How big? That depends.

We go to Oakwell a week later and need to avoid defeat. If we do, we’re through; it is that simple.

Assuming Notts have won, and have won big, then Barnsley would also need to beat us big. If Barnsley were to beat us 1-0, we’d still top the group on goal difference. The only way Barnsley overtake us is if they win 2-0 or more. A 2-0 win for them would see them go above us, because we’d both have plus four goal difference, but they would have scored more, and beaten us.

Does your head hurt yet? It gets worse.

If we were to lose to Barnsley by two or more clear goals, then the combined goal difference swing for Notts County would have to be plus nine. There is currently an eight-goal difference, but as we’ve scored six, and they’ve scored two, they’d have to score five, moving on to seven. With that, we’d have to lose 3-0. If they won 4-0 and we lost 4-0, the goal difference would be the same, goals scored would be the same, but we beat them, so we’d still be second.

The nuts and bolts are these – if we avoid anything other than a 2-0 (or more) defeat, we’re through. If we do lose by more, progress is reliant on Notts having a big win against United’s kids. We’ll know on November 4th what we need to do for certain, and we’re likely to qualify without kicking a ball (again, obviously, we bagged six in two games to actually qualify).

My head hurts. I need an aspirin.

It’s likely we’d then play the next round on or around either Tuesday, 2nd December, or Tuesday the 16th. I’d be keeping those date free for now, although don’t take my word for it, as that’s only a guesstimate based on when it was played last season, and the fact we (ironically) play Barnsley in the league on the other Tuesday before Christmas, 9th.