Burnley
Burnley might appear on plenty of people’s lists of Championship surprises, but there is a distinction for me between struggling and struggling quite this badly. The depth of their fall has been unexpected, but I didn’t have them down as a team that would simply come back into the division and march straight towards promotion. I thought they might be around the edge of the play-offs, perhaps just outside them. The managerial change, the squad and the general direction of the club all left me with questions.
There is still an assumption that relegation from the Premier League comes with such a financial advantage that an immediate return should follow. Sometimes it does, and Burnley themselves have shown that in the past, as have Sheffield United. However, dropping out of the Premier League can also expose problems that money alone doesn’t solve. Leicester and Luton have suffered successive relegations, while Sunderland provided an earlier example of how quickly a club can slide when the first drop is followed by another.
Wolves and West Ham look likely to be there or thereabouts this season, but I never felt Burnley belonged automatically in the same conversation. Having parachute payments doesn’t guarantee that the squad fits together, that the manager gets the best from it or that the club responds well to relegation. I certainly didn’t predict quite such a spectacularly poor start. Equally, I can’t pretend their failure to establish themselves among the leading sides has come as a complete shock.
Bristol City
Bristol City’s relatively good start hasn’t surprised me either, even allowing for us going there and beating them. I tipped them to finish in the top eight, and that is where they sit at the break, with 13 points. They are level on points with sixth-placed QPR and only two behind West Ham in second, which represents a decent opening to the campaign. There is plenty of football left, but their position broadly reflects what I thought they were capable of.
Their recruitment was interesting because bringing players up from League One doesn’t always translate into Championship success. Lorent Tolaj, Dom Ballard and Sam Tickle were significant players at Plymouth, Leyton Orient and Wigan, but none came from a side that won promotion last season. There was a boldness to that approach, even if those weren’t their only additions. You could look at the squad and see how it might work, but there was also enough uncertainty to understand why somebody else might have been less convinced.
There was a question over Michael Skubala as well, just as there had been over our management team before he left. Winning League One was an outstanding achievement, but he did it as part of a very good group of people, and the Championship presented another test. Bristol City also brings a different kind of pressure, with a big stadium and, in my opinion, a club ready for Premier League football if the team can get it there. Our coaches have shown they can handle the step up, and so far, he has too.
My confidence in Bristol City came largely from my confidence in Michael. Whatever role he occupies, I believe he will approach it meticulously, work to a clear plan and surround himself with good people. If something isn’t working, I trust him to understand why and make the necessary adjustments. That doesn’t guarantee success in every match, as we demonstrated at Ashton Gate, but it is why their place in the top eight feels entirely plausible to me.
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