Lincoln City can make a later playoff push – that’s according to site reader Andy Chapman.
Earlier in the week, Michael Skubala said: “We need to be looking up because why can’t we go on a run? We will try to get some wins and then see where we are at the end of February as that is when things will become clearer,” writes Andy.
With that in mind, I have been looking up and looking back at previous seasons to try and figure out what we need to do to make the playoffs this season! (I would like to preface this whole article by saying if you offered my 8th, 9th or 10th, I would snap your hand off right now!)
Looking backwards
To begin, I went back over the last 11 seasons (ignoring the early finish COVID season) and looked at what points totals got teams into the playoffs.
23/24 – 77 points
22/23 – 83 points
21/22 – COVID
20/21 – 74 points
19/20 – 73 points
18/19 – 71 points
17/18 – 73 points
16/17 – 74 points
15/16 – 69 points
14/15 – 74 points
13/14 – 74 points
Looking at all of this, you can see that in eight out of those 10 seasons, 75 points would have got you into the playoffs, so this is the target number I will use as I start to look forward. My only slight issue is that the two seasons that 75 points would not have got you into the playoffs have been the last two seasons, but let’s just ignore that for now!
Looking up
Currently we sit in 10th place on 45 points with 13 games remaining. Over those 13 games, we would get to 58 points if we took 1 point per game, 64 points if we took 1.5 points on average per game, 71 points if we took two points per game, and the magic number for my scenario is 2.3 points average as that gets us to 75 points!
Looking forwards
Game 1: Saturday 24th Feb – Port Vale (A) – Port Vale are scrapping down at the bottom of the table at the moment and even though they have a new manager, I can’t see their form improving when we head over. I think this will be our first win of the run in. My prediction is a 2 – 0 win.
Game 2: Tuesday 27th Feb – Shrewsbury (H) – Shrewsbury are another team down towards the bottom of the table. As an Imp whose closest away game in Shrewsbury, I can tell you that we never seem to play well against them away so luckily this game is at the LNER. I think our unbeaten run will continue. My prediction is a 1 – 0 win.
Game 3: Saturday 2nd Mar – Stevenage (H) – This is the first game where I think our unbeaten run is under a little threat. Steve Evans knows what he’s doing, and while they are on a bit of an indifferent run at the moment, I think this game will cause us problems. My prediction is a 2 -1 loss.
Game 4: Saturday 9th Mar – Barnsley (A) – Another tricky game against a team who are battling for automatic promotion. We will put up a good fight, but I think this will be another tough game. My prediction is a 2 – 0 loss.
Game 5: Tuesday 12th Mar – Cambridge (H) – Cambridge are going to finish the season midtable and we should be winning this game so I think this will be a nice game to stop the run of two losses. My prediction is a 2 – 1 win. (Macauley Bonne will 100% score for Cambridge!)
Game 6: Saturday 16th Mar – Bristol Rovers (H) – Another team who will probably end the season solidly in mid table and another game that really if we are looking up towards the playoffs we should be winning at home. My prediction is a 3 – 2 win.
Game 7: Saturday 23rd Mar – Oxford United (A) – At this point, Oxford will be one of the teams we are chasing for the final playoff spot. With this game being away, I think we will put in a solid defensive display and grind out a draw. My prediction is a 1 – 1 draw.
Game 8: Friday 29th Mar – Leyton Orient (H) – Following Oxford are another team that will be sniffing around the playoffs. This is the sort of game that could probably go either way, but with us being at home I think we will sneak it. My prediction is a 2 – 1 win.
Game 9: Monday 1st Apr – Carlise United (A) – Carlise are going to get relegated. They might even be relegated by the time we play them. It’s a long trip on Easter Monday but we will win. My prediction is a 2 – 0 win.
Game 10: Saturday 6th Apr – Reading (A) – Another game against a team who will be scrapping down at the bottom of the table. This won’t be easy as Reading will not have been relegated yet and will be in fight for every point. I’d still like to think positively and give us the 3 points on the road. My prediction is 1 – 0 win.
Game 11: Saturday 13th Apr – Wigan Athletic (H) – At this stage of the season, Wigan could either be chasing the playoffs or could be confirmed as mid table. Either way it won’t be a straight forward game but I think with a fit and healthy squad and a home game, we will have enough to get past them. My prediction is a 2 – 1 win.
Game 12: Saturday 20th Apr – Cheltenham Town (A) – This game is a game we should win. Cheltenham will be scrapping for survival at this point, or could have already been relegated. Either way, we should win. My prediction is a 2 – 1 win.
Game 13: Saturday 27th Apr – Portsmouth (H) – The final game of the season will bring Portsmouth to the LNER and I think they will already be champions by this point and have nothing the play. On the other hand, I think we will be in a possible win and get into the playoffs scenario. Either way it sets up for a fantastic final game. My prediction 2 – 1 win with Draper scoring the winner.
Prediction
My predictions have us winning 10, drawing 1 and losing 2 of the remaining 13 games (very optimistic I know but we have fit players now, strikers who are scoring and are unbeaten in 7 games!) That run of results would get us to 76 points and if we do manage to get up to that many points who knows what will happen!
As I have said, I think Portsmouth will be champions. I think Derby will go up with them. I think Bolton and Barnsley will be joined by two out of Peterborough, Oxford, Stevenage, Blackpool, Leyton Orient or us. Anyone for Lincoln vs Blackpool on Saturday 18th May? Stranger things have happened.
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