I recall that, early in 2017, I was asked what success looked like for Lincoln.
We were fighting at the top of the National League, vying for the top spot with Tranmere and Forest Green. It was a titanic battle from which we emerged victorious, and I remember being asked where the ride could end. My answer was ‘an established League One side’. I gave that answer because my Dad always used to tell me Lincoln weren’t a Division Four team. ‘We should be Division Three‘, he would always tell me. I didn’t realise the longest spell we’d had in Division Three (under a four-division structure) was five seasons, between 81/82 and 85/86.
Still, I always felt we could be a Division Three / League One/third-tier team, based not only on what Dad said but also on our club size. Fleetwood, Rochdale, Scunthorpe, and Southend all finished in the top ten that season, and I felt we were similar to those clubs. I felt if we were at the top end of the third tier, we’d get their crowds and attract the players they attracted. However, they were established League One sides, whereas we were stepping tentatively into League Two for the first time in six seasons. It was a big ask.
You also have to ask what established League One really looks like. Is it successive seasons? Is it the number of seasons? Is it yo-yoing between divisions, dropping in and out from above or below? How do you truly know when you’re an established League One club? Are we now that club? If we are, how ‘established’ are we compared to those around us.
I thought I’d crunch the numbers and look back over a decade of the third tier to see if it feels like Lincoln City are now a League One club.
Seasons
The first of the metrics has got to be how many seasons in the last ten a club has spent in League One. To be established, they surely have to be an actual League One club now, meaning the most established of them all, Fleetwood, miss out. They have spent every one of the last ten seasons in League One but were relegated this campaign. Oxford (8) and Portsmouth (7) were also up there and now are not.
Some of the others with many seasons under their belt might not see being established in League One as the position of strength I feel it is. Peterborough have spent nine of the last ten at this level but won’t be particularly chuffed about it. Charlton have spent seven seasons at this level, whilst Gillingham (8) can only dream of once again establishing themselves here.
The most established (and likely to be happy about it) are Shrewsbury Town. They have spent nine of the past ten seasons in League One, were promoted in 2014/15, and have not dropped out since. In that time, they’ve finished as high as third, but also 17th, 18th (three times), 19th and 20th. Clinging on, boys!
We have had a five-season stay, which is the same as a host of teams, including Barnsley, Wigan, Bolton, Wycombe, Bradford, Scunthorpe, Coventry, Southend, Walsall, Accrington, and Bury. There are some established names and some fallen giants. Bear in mind that if we’re taking a ten-year spell, we’ll make it six from ten next season, whereas Bradford, Walsall, and Scunthorpe will go down to four.
In competing in our sixth campaign next year, we’ll draw level with AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth, who both have six seasons in League One in the last nine years (making next season ten).
Average Finish
There are three teams who have an average finish of first – they’ve spent one season at this level in the last decade. That’s Luton, Hull and Bristol City, whilst Blackburn have one season in second. The only side with three or more seasons in League One over the last ten years with an average finish higher than fifth is Rotherham (4th, 2nd and 2nd), so no pressure on big Steve.
Perhaps the best side in terms of being established at the top end is Posh. Of their nine seasons, they’ve only finished outside the top ten twice and average an eighth place. Other clubs currently in League One with an average finish above tenth are Barnsley (6th over five seasons) Wigan (seventh over five seasons, with three titles) Bolton (eighth over five seasons), Wycombe (ninth over five seasons) and Stevenage with their ninth place last season.
Our average finish in eleventh, which is another pointer towards us being established. There are only ten teams with five seasons or more that have a higher average finish – aside from those mentioned above Scunthorpe (11th from five), Bradford (tenth from five), Oxford (tenth from eight), Portsmouth (sixth from seven), and Charlton (10th from seven). Bear in mind, we have a better average finish than Blackpool, Coventry, Burton and MK Dons, all with five or more seasons in the division over the last decade.
Consecutive Seasons
I think this is the real test of being established. Some clubs dip in and out, with Wigan having four spells in the last ten seasons and Rotherham now about to start their fourth. In terms of consecutive seasons, losing Oxford, Fleetwood, and Portsmouth really pushed us up the pecking order. Only Shrewsbury (nine) and Burton (six) have more. After us, Charlton (four), Bolton (three) and Wycombe (three) are the other long-serving members.
Churn
It’s interesting to note that over the last ten years, 61 clubs have played in League One. Of those clubs, one is currently in the Premier League, 14 in the Championship, 19 currently in League One, 18 in League Two and seven are in non-league, or folded and reformed. Five (Birmingham, Huddersfield, Mansfield, Stockport and Wrexham) will be new to the level in terms of the last decade.
If I had more time, I’d perhaps go back 20 or 30 years for a clear picture, but I think this serves my purpose. Once, my Dad told me we were a Division Three side. I wondered if we’d ever truly be one again, rather than a one-season wonder like in 1998.
It is safe to say going into the new season, we really are a staple of the League One calendar.
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