The recent thrashing of Manchester City U21s was Michael Skubala’s fiftieth competitive game for the club, writes Dale Warner.
Now seems a good time to stop and take stock, and who better to use as a benchmark than our two previous managers, Michael Appleton and Mark Kennedy? All three managed the club in the same four competitions, and all three had at least two transfer windows in their first fifty games.
Wins, Draws, and Losses
Let’s start with Appleton. Managing the club through the hangover that followed the champagne partying of the Cowley era wasn’t easy, especially when you consider the impact Covid had on training players, sharing changing rooms, and the constant player testing. Not to mention the rebuild of the playing squad required after releasing a large portion of the team due to the financial uncertainty of playing games behind closed doors. For this reason, it should be commended that Michael won twenty-three of his first fifty games at the club, with eight draws and nineteen losses.
Shockingly, considering he had an entire pre-season with the club, Kennedy’s first fifty were not as impressive. Mark Kennedy was appointed Lincoln’s manager in the summer of 2022, following the club’s mutual agreement to end Appleton’s contract early. Mark had more time with his squad than any other manager reviewed in this article and consistently leveraged his connections within the game during his early days with the club, notably his “father” figure, Mick McCarthy. Kennedy only won seventeen of his first fifty games, drawing nineteen and losing fourteen. Losing only fourteen is somewhat impressive, but within that is a loss to Chippenham. Enough said.
So how does Skubala compare? More wins, more draws, fewer losses. In his first fifty games, he’s won twenty-four, drawn thirteen, and lost only thirteen. A great start, especially when you consider where Appleton took the club. Personally, I find Michael Skubala’s style of play more attractive on the eye. Perhaps Joe Taylor agrees; he certainly may have enjoyed watching from the stands against Northampton more than watching from the bench at Kenilworth Road.
Points Per Game
Stay with me, I can already hear the groan. I accept this could be considered an “unrealistic” measure when taken outside of the league, as cups and trophies can often throw up unexpected results against lower-tier opposition. But it does show an expected return from a manager, and if we input the wins, draws, and losses given above for each man’s first fifty games into a PPG calculation (three for a win, one for a draw, zero for a loss, and divide by fifty), we can see a definite trend. For Appleton, we get a PPG of 1.54, Kennedy gets 1.40, while Skubala sits comfortably at 1.7. Should we, as fans, be more expectant? The numbers suggest perhaps we should. I’ve gotten this far without naming him, but a certain “successful former manager” of ours from our National League days had a PPG of 1.86 while with the club.
Longest Unbeaten and Longest Without a Win
Let’s talk about stints in the first fifty games. Were we up and down week to week? Who had the best consistency? Starting with unbeaten runs, Appleton comes last with an unbeaten run of seven (one draw, six wins). Kennedy comes in second with an unbeaten run of ten (three wins and seven draws). Skubala had an unbeaten run of sixteen (six draws, ten wins) at the end of last year, with only Portsmouth spoiling it as we chased a play-off place. To my memory, the club record is seventeen.
Sadly, for Skubala, it’s not a clean sweep in this article. The longest run without a win has him highest, with ten games—the last three being the three draws at the start of his unbeaten run. Most of this winless run for Skubala came over a difficult Christmas period with a threadbare squad, no pre-season, and his first transfer window slowly approaching. Second again is Kennedy with a winless run of eight, while Appleton had a winless run of seven. Considering both Michaels came into the club mid-season with a squad of players set up for another man’s style of play, perhaps we should be praising how close both of these runs are when compared to Kennedy.
Conclusion
To conclude, I think Michael Skubala and the club should be incredibly proud of how our manager stacks up after fifty games in the dugout. He’s clearly the right man for the job and is rewarding the club for their commitment. When a club sells their manager halfway through a campaign, they are typically safe in the knowledge that they’ll be compensated by the buying club—perhaps enough to get a decent player or two at the next transfer window.
In contrast, when a club sacks their manager, it can appear to be a knee-jerk reaction, sometimes closely followed by a swift fall down the league. What Michael did last season was magic; it captured fans’ imaginations, and I am looking forward to what he does with his next fifty games in charge. He’s already slightly ahead of Appleton in numbers; perhaps he can go one better and get us to the Championship? Dare to dream? UTI
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