I love a predicted table, especially one from a supercomputer (not a normal computer, but a super one, no less). With that in mind, the latest Opta predicted League One table can be revealed.
Opta’s League Prediction model analyzes how teams will likely perform in a competition by estimating their chances of finishing in each possible league position. This allows fans and analysts to gauge the likelihood of outcomes such as winning the title, achieving a mid-table finish, or facing relegation. The model relies on a combination of data sources, including betting market odds and Opta’s Power Rankings, which reflect both historical and recent team performances. Phew. This computer needs to be super.
The model calculates the probability of each match outcome—win, draw, or loss—based on the odds and rankings to generate predictions. It factors in the relative strength of opponents and then simulates the entire remaining schedule of the competition thousands of times. By analyzing these simulations, the model determines how frequently each team ends up in various positions, resulting in a comprehensive and data-driven forecast for the league standings.
In short, it makes up the league table based on current data. It’s obviously not going to be spot-on, but it does give some fans food for thought. If it is to be believed currently, then you’d best keep the play-off semi-final weekend free.
Going Up?
It’s probably a surprise to nobody that Birmingham City are tipped to win the division. They’re the best team by a mile, and they’re sure to keep the pressure up and eventually pull away. The computer thinks Wycome are heading for the Championship as well, which makes Saturday’s game very interesting indeed.
Now, this is where we come in. The play-off spaces are set to be taken by Bolton Wanderers in third, Barsnley in fifth, and Huddersfield in sixth. You’ll notice I’ve left out fourth because, according to the supercomputer, Lincoln City will finish fourth. That means a play-off semi-final date with Darrell Clarke’s Barnsley before we (obviously, it’ll be us) meet Bolton or Huddersfield in the final. Imagine a Wembley date with the Terriers—we owe them, after all!
Bear in mind, the computer does work out a percentage, and our actual percentage likelihood of finishing top six is 51.34%. We’re only 7.12% for automatic promotion, and a slim (but still achievable) 1.62% for the title. Our expected points are between 75 and 76.
Not Going Up?
The computer has a few other interesting predictions. Mansfield might be flying, but they’re tipped to finish 12th, struggling to maintain their push. They remind me a bit of Stevenage last season, a real outsider coming from nowhere who may not quite have the legs to keep going, but they’re at 13% for a play-off place. Wrexham fans might be bothered as well – they’re set to finish seventh according to the computer, hopefully a slide started by us next week. That said, their playoff chances are 40%, so they are only marginally behind us. Big game coming up!
Peterborough in 10th and Charlton in 13th are also really interesting calculations. Posh are 23% for the playoffs, but Nathan Jones’ Addicks are worse, at just 7.16%.
Going Down?
Without looking, if you asked me who is going down this season, I’d say Cambridge, Shrewsbury, Burton and Crawley. The supercomputer agrees, with Shrewsbury predicted to be 97.14% assured of relegation and Burton 92.78%. It’s nice to be certain at this stage of the season, isn’t it? For the record, they were 0.02% likely to suffer relegation. Those are odds even Steve Tilson couldn’t beat.
Conclusion
Of course, this means nothing. The same computer had different predictions a month ago – back then, Birmingham and Wrexham were in the top two spots, with us, Mansfield, Wycombe and Stockport in the top six. In fairness, it was the same four to go down, which I’m sure isn’t good news to their supporters, but let’s be honest – there’s only one table that matters, and it ain’t this one.
We’ll have a better idea come Tuesday bedtime! UTI