Before we start, I don’t think this is a bad draw.
It’s not great – we would like to have been at home, and we’d have liked to have got a Premier League giant, but in the grand scheme of things, it could have been worse. Bristol City, Brentford, Bournemouth, Preston, Wigan, Plymouth… the list of away games that would be worse than this goes on and on.
In fact, a year ago, this would be a decent draw – they are (in terms of size) a top-end Championship club, and a trip to a ground like St Andrews would be a bonus. The issue is they’re now in our league, so there’s no novelty. Even my suggestion of QPR away would have been better, in terms of a new ground.
@thestaceywest Why Birmingham away is not the worst of FA Cup draws #imps #weareimps #kro
Still, while it isn’t a glamour tie in terms of league placing, it is a trip to a big club in the Third Round. The issue is we’re now also a ‘big’ club if you take into consideration who we have played in league action over the last few seasons. Sunderland, Ipswich, Portsmouth, Derby County, Birmingham City… the list of teams we’ve faced as equals goes on. That’s why a trip to Birmingham doesn’t feel particularly glamorous; we’re used to big matches.
It is a winnable game, especially if they put out their second string, as they did this weekend. There was no Iwata, no Willumson, and no Klarer as they beat Blackpool. It’s still a mid-table Championship squad they have, so Lyndon Dykes and Lukas Jutkiewicz played, but if they underestimate us, there’s no reason we can’t win. Would it be a rubbish draw if we won and then went into the next round? Only as rubbish as Brighton in 2016/17, for example.
🏆 City will head to Birmingham City in the third round of the @EmiratesFACup – the tie will be played in the second weekend of January.#WeAreImps
— Lincoln City FC 🇺🇦 (@LincolnCity_FC) December 2, 2024
FA Cup Curse?
However, it is another Third Round game where the Imps are not at home. Now, do you know how many times we’ve joined the FA Cup in the First Round, got a home draw against a top flight club Third Round? Twice. How many times have we won a Third Round tie at the Bank after coming through the first two rounds? Never. Yep, never. We have never got past the first two rounds and won a home tie at first time of asking in the third. that said, we’ve only got past the first two rounds and won a Third Round tie twice in our history, once against Ipswich (which we did eventually win at home) and in 1975/76 when we had four away draws on the spin, losing to West Brom. Are we cursed?
In our history, we have reached the Third Round, having entered in the First Round (or earlier) on 20 occasions, starting in 1926/27 and finishing this season. We’ve had to work hard as well – of those 19 runs, 13 have started with an away draw, as this season has. Of the times we’ve hit the Third Round after going through two others, we’ve only been drawn at home on six occasions, and only two of those were against top-flight opposition – in 1928/29 we got Leicester City, who finished second, and in 1963/64 we got Sheffield United who finished 12th in the First Division. Preston (26/27), Forest (46/47) and Sunderland (98/99) were all second tier, and Coventry City (62/63) were in the Third Division. That game was famously postponed 15 times, a run spanning 63 days.
What’s truly crazy is that 11 of our last 12 FA Cup Third Round games have been drawn away, a run stretching back to Rotherham in the 1964/65 season. We have been to St Andrews at this stage before, that was 1968/69, and we have had top flight opposition away, including Bolton Wanderers, Crystal Palace and Everton.
Cup Curse?
I got to wondering, are we just cursed in cup competitions at present? After all, we rarely seem to get a decent home draw in any cup competition. I decided to crunch some numbers, going back to the 2016/17 season, to see how many times we’ve been drawn at home in cup games that are one tie, or one leg. So, FA Trophy semi-final, for instance, doesn’t count. Also, the first round of the EFL Trophy doesn’t count, as that’s not an open draw – group winners get a home tie anyway.
In the League Cup, we’ve played 17 ties since 2016/17, all of which can be drawn home or away. We’ve had just four home draws, Liverpool, Everton, West Ham and Harrogate Town, and 13 away draws. All four of the home draws have, unsurprisingly given the opponents, ended in defeat. One of those, arguably the biggest, fans were not allowed in the ground.
In the FA Cup, we’ve had mixed luck – 21 matches (not including replays) with ten home draws and Birmingham City making it 11 away. We’ve won eight of our ten home draws, losing to Morecambe and Hartlepool United. In all that time, the last time we drew a side above us in the league structure (not in our league) at home was Brighton in 2016/17.
The EFL Trophy is a little different – for instance, we got Everton U21s at home a season or so ago, but Under 21 sides have to be away. However, the season we got Chelsea Under 21s, they played some games at Stamford Bridge. Also, there’s an automatic away draw for finishing second in the group, so we’ve actually only been drawn ‘fairly’ on seven occasions. We’ve had more home ties than aways in these draws, Peterborough, Chelsea Under 21s, and Accrington (twice), but we’ve actually played away more.
Finally, I have included the FA Trophy where we got to the semi-final in 2016/17. In that season, we had four away draws, Nantwich, Gateshead, Welling and Boreham Wood. The only home game we had was two-legged against York City, so we didn’t actually get a home draw at all.
In total, I think we’ve had 49 different draws since the start of the 2016/17 season, 17 in the League Cup, 21 in the FA Cup and 11 in the other cups. Of those ties, we’ve been drawn away 31 times, which is 63% of the time. Perhaps we are cursed, after all! The only way to disprove that is to smash Birmingham in the next round and then, finally, get the plum home tie against a top-flight side in the FA Cup for only the third time in our history.
As a Birmingham fan I wouldn’t say we’re exactly thrilled with this tie either. Still its at home and gives us a good chance to progress.