It’s getting around to silly season, the time when everyone clamours for a ten-goal striker to sign, and whatever happens, that still might not be judged as good enough.
The winter window is reactionary in many ways. In fact, fans don’t accept anything other than a reactionary window, and that’s evident from 2020/21, when we signed Regan Poole, Cohen Bramall and Morgan Rogers, and everyone wanted a striker. At the time, that window was deemed a failure, but the year we signed John Marquis, Morgan Whittaker, Liam Cullen and a host of others, it was deemed a success. The biggest success from that window is surely Ben House, who barely played for us until the following season.
I think from a PR point of view, this is the toughest window for the club to navigate. Big spenders will flex their muscles, perhaps more so than in the summer. In the summer, there are a couple of months and a lot of choices of free agents, but this is the window where cash is king, making life very difficult for clubs who operate in the markets we do.
However, that’s not to say we won’t spend; we certainly have in the past if the right player is available.
Who Will Exit?
One variable that fans have to consider is exits. There will be players leave, perhaps on loan, and that’s something that could be both beneficial and detrimental. For instance, if a struggling Championship club drops by with £1.2 million and a desire for a holding midfielder, I think we’d lose Erhahon. Then we have players approaching the end of their contracts – Ben House, Paudie O’Connor, Lewis Montsma and Sean Roughan spring to mind. What bid would it take for them to leave? Roughan is a bit different to the others – he’s going to be 22 when his contract ends and if he goes somewhere else, we’ll be well protected.
It’s not usual for a big name player to leave the Imps during a winter window, but it is possible. However, it is usual to see a player’s loan terminated, and I think that’s almost certain to happen with Saxon Earley. He’s barely played, and losing him, with respect, wouldn’t impact the squad. Bailey Cadamarteri is different – he can’t play for anyone other than us or Sheffield Wednesday, so he may well stay. If he does, I think that may mean we don’t sign a striker, as we’ll be heavily loaded.
I can see Rob Street heading out on loan, he’s probably the only one around the squad that will have limited minutes even if we go deeper in the Vertu Trophy. With Tyler Walker coming back, I suspect we’re more likely to have a good look at him, with six months left on his deal, than Street who is an Imp for another three.
The other who may benefit from a loan for minutes is JJ McKiernan. Ben House recently played the attacking midfield role (of sorts), and with Tom Bayliss coming back and Jack Moylan fit and firing, McKiernan is perhaps a player who could do with minutes. Again, a four-year deal when he signed protects us, and if he goes out, it will be for minutes, nothing more.
What Sort of Player Will We Target?
Over the course of the last few years, our hunting ground has changed. We’ve been known to enter the loan market during the transfer window, and that is a possibility. Last winter, we signed two players, Zack Bradshaw and Jack Moylan, and two loans in McGrandles and Joe Taylor. The year before, Duffy and Erhahon were coming in, with Plange, Shodipo, and Harry Boyes on loan.
I could go back further, but it points to two very distinct profiles – we either pick someone up heading towards the end of their contract elsewhere who we can get a deal on, or it’s a loan. With the focus shifting from borrowed players of late, I would be surprised if we signed more than maybe on or two on loan, and perhaps one or two permanently. We’re not usually a team to do a huge amount of business in this window, aside from the last Appleton season, and I think the same will be the case here.
My gut feeling (and my gut is feeling sensitive, still, after the other weekend) is we’ll perhaps see three coming in, one loan, one immediate impact and one longer term project. That’s purely guesswork by the way.
Positions To Focus On
Where do we need to focus our attention in the winter window? This is the bit where I get a barrage of abuse, I know, so I’ll start with what I do not think we need. A striker.
I know, I know. Of course we need a striker, it’s Lincoln City in a transfer window. However, hear me out.
Firstly, we have Makama, Draper, House, Walker and Cadamarteri all vying for two places – between them in all competitions this season, they have 20 goals, and Walker has barely played. Even assuming House plays deeper, that’s still four League One quality strikers wanting a start. I can’t see us loaning out either of our academy products in the window, so put simply, unless there’s a deal to be had on a permanent player, I can’t see us bringing in a new face. I know some of you will argue Draper and Makama are not good enough, but we’re ninth in League One. You don’t get to be ninth in League One if you’re not a decent side with decent, if not outstanding strikers. If we were ninth, and had a strike partnership on ten goals each, we’d be raving about it.
Besides, fans will all be looking for a big loan, someone like Nathan Lowe on loan at Stoke. However, remember the last few ‘like-for-like’ loans. Whittaker for Johnson went well for many, didn’t it (I rated Whittaker by the way)? What about John-Jules for Walker? Trying to get back to the Joe Taylor era is fruitless. Unless we find £1.5 million from somewhere, we’re not getting Joe Taylor, and there is no point in us going for the next best thing because Cadamarteri was widely regarded as that.
I think it’s almost certain the priority is going to be a central defender or even two, and that could be permanent. Adam Jackson is out of contract this summer, and rumours abound that he is heading back up north. Sean Roughan is out of contract, as is Paudie O’Connor, and while a new deal may or may not happen for those players, it does leave the backline looking like it needs strengthening. As we did with Regan Poole, I imagine there may be summer targets that we could get earlier, but at a small cost. That’s where I think the bulk of our business will be done.
After that, I think we’ll be reactive. If someone leaves, we will look to replace. However, I don’t actually think there’s a pressing need for major changes. Of course, I may be wrong, but I can’t see us making a big marquee signing unless we have something on the boil in Scandinavia. I really feel (as I’ve stated on the podcast) that our big chance for the top six is next season, when the likes of Ring, McKiernan, Jeffries and others have settled, alongside some of our established players, if we can keep them.
Therefore, and this may disappoint a few, but I don’t envisage a massive window here. In real terms, we’re ninth, two places lower than last season’s finish, but I feel we’ve progressed. It is just that the division has progressed even more, and that’s not easy to cope with.
The last time this happened was 21/22, and I’m damn sure we’re in better shape than that window, even if we do no business as all.
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