This is going to be an article I expect will create a lot of discussion.
We keep hearing about budgets, and some fans remain sceptical. After all, no matter what we spent, we could have done better. Key moments in some games let us down, and while we finished 11th on 61 points, we could easily argue that we should have been closer to 70.
Think about it – last gasp leveller for Huddersfield in the 2-2 draw. That awful Christmas run where we should have got something from Shrewsbury and Stevenage. Home and away against Rotherham, no points to show against poor opposition. Even the back-to-back draws with Exeter and Bristol Rovers early doors should have brought us a few more points.
Yep, there’s no doubt we could have done better than we did. However, we also finished in the top half of the table for a third successive season, and that’s massive as we outperformed our budget. This season we sank down the budget table, not due to a shrinking budget, but simply because bigger fish got thrown in our pond.
My understanding is pre-Christmas, we were 19th in the budget table, but at the end of the campaign, we’re around 17th. Who were our main rivals? What did other clubs spend, and how does it make the budget table look?
Thanks to an article published by The Real EFL, we do have a rough idea of what the budget table looks like.
Given the estimated table dropping, I’ve used that to determine an approximate cost per point for each club and how their overall league position equates with their budget. Hell, I’ve even gone all out and estimated a cost per goal, and where their budget puts them in relation to the xG table.
Yeah, I’ve gone all in on this, because I firmly believe that budget is important.
Budget Table
The top sides are pretty much as expected – Birmingham City with a first team wage outlay of around £16m, and a further £1.5m estimated on their academy, lead the way. After them, estimated total outlays of £13.8m by Wrexham, £11m by Huddersfield, £9.8m by Bolton, and £8.1m by Charlton complete the top five.
The haves are clearly spending, but the have-nots are a world away. The bottom four in our table are Shrewsbury Town (£2.7m), Crawley Town (£3.3m), Exeter City (£3.8m) and Northampton, Cambridge and Stevenage on around £4.1m.
I’m often told budget is something fans are sick of hearing about, but there’s a clear indication that the more you have, the higher up the league you finish.
Best and Worst Performing Sides
In terms of performance, the industry usually says that a manager who significantly outperforms his team’s budget position has done well, and that stands to reason. Should anyone be surprised that a team with three times more budget than half the division won it? No. I’m not taking away from Chris Davies, but Birmingham City topped the budget table and finished first. Wrexham came second. Those managers achieved what was widely expected of them.
Richie Wellens was the best manager in the division according to achievement. Orient finished 6th, but their budget is believed to be around 14th in the division, giving him a rating of +8. That’s impressive, huge respect to him for that, especially after the horror start they had.
After that, Michael Skubala (+6) and Gary Caldwell (+6) were next best. Alex Revell (+5) and Noel Hunt / Ruben Selles (+4) make up the top five. I think it is interesting they’re clubs that didn’t have a sacking all season as well, despite some feeling Wellens was in trouble early doors, and few dissenters calling for Skubala’s head.
The worst-performing sides all had changes. Bristol Rovers (-11) were perhaps the most striking, but Huddersfield Town (-7), Barnsley and Bolton (-4) and Rotherham, Wigan and Cambridge (-3) were all there. In fairness, there’s the level of spending as well – few could really criticise Cambridge, with a budget of one place above the relegation zone, for finishing in the relegation zone. On the flip side, Huddersfield’s huge outlay really wasn’t reflected in their dismal season.
Cost Per Point
Whereas we outperformed our position significantly, in terms of an estimated cost per point, we’re a little further down – we’re still ‘play-offs’ as it were, but a couple of managers did better. Gary Caldwell led the way with an estimated £67,857 per point, followed very closely by Richie Wellens on £67,949. Those are close numbers and, given our estimates, certainly open to differences of a couple of hundred quid.
Rob Elliott / Scott Lindsay were next, around £71,000 with relegated Crawley Town, while Alex Revell’s job at Stevenage continues to look like solid work with around £71,900. Then it’s us (£78,600) and Reading (£80,000).
At the other end of the scale, Huddersfield perhaps did worst, spending an estimated £171,875 per point. Birmingham, as expected, are next on £157,658, and finally Wrexham third on around £150,000.
In terms of performance, Orient’s CPP saw a difference of 17 league places (23rd in the CPP table, 6th in the actual table) with Stockport County (+13), Reading (+12) and Charlton (+10) all doing well. At the bottom, Bristol Rovers were the biggest losers (-17) with Cambridge United (-14), Burton Albion (-9) and Huddersfield Town (-9) all in the bottom five.
Birmingham, Wrexham, Blackpool, Crawley and Northampton all performed more or less as you’d expect, within one place in both tables.
For the record, we were plus nine.
Cost Per Goal
I know we’re getting tenuous here, but I also wondered about cost per goal. For me, goals are where the excitement is, and if you score a lot of goals, fans are surely getting entertainment. Therefore, if you’re able to score more goals than your budget suggests, you’re getting more entertainment for your money. I figured this might throw some perspective on the numbers.
The team with the highest cost per goal, and this won’t surprise you, was Birmingham City (£208,000 ish per goal), followed by Wrexham (£205,900 ish) and Huddersfield (£189,600). The teams with the lowest cost per goal were Crawley (£57,895), Shrewsbury (£65,800-ish), and Peterborough United (£72,000). Remember, these numbers are very close estimates based on the wage outlay.
For the record, after Posh it’s Orient, and then us. Orient have the biggest variance once again (15 places from CPG table to budget table) followed by Reading and us tied on +9. Bristol Rovers (-16) Wigan (-11) and Cambridge (-8) make up the bottom four.
Budget Table to xG
I know this will attract a few angry people, because it’s a table essentially based on guesswork, and a stat that’s actually an opinion. However, the xG table fascinates me, because I feel the more xG you produce, the more likely you are to succeed if you keep doing the same thing. Of course, xG can be 100 pot shots from distance, or it could two shots from the penalty spot, so it’s a little wild to use it in this context, but I like to live dangerously and welcome abuse on social media.
Using this xG table which changes the results of games based on the xG, and which doesn’t have Saturday’s games on it yet, and my wages table, we are the best in terms of cost per xG – a variance of 11 places. Stevenage are next on 10, with Wycombe (six) and Crawley (five) next.
At the bottom, Bristol Rovers (-11), Reading (-8) and both Wrexham and Bolton (-6) make up the worst four. Of course, Wrexham went up and we know Reading did well to finish seventh, but it suggests that they created less than their budget place. It doesn’t neccesarily mean they’re bad though, just a little les entertaining for the buck. In the case of Reading and definitely Wrexham, it merely suggests they’ve been more functional than thrilling.
Conclusion
Leyton Orient, Lincoln City, Exeter City and Stevenage – these are the teams that have impressed in industry terms, outperforming budget and producing finishes above expectation.
On the flip side, Huddersfield, Bolton Wanderers, and Bristol Rovers will feel they’ve had poor seasons compared to the outlay. It’s clear that the two polar opposites are Orient and The Gas, but it’s nice for us to be around the good performers, even if there’s a feeling we could have done even better.
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