What Is On-Field Success? Let’s Ask History….

There’s been some debate about what success looks like recently. 

I won’t get drawn into debate with some supporters anymore, as it isn’t worth it – we have differing views of what success looks like, and they’re best left in the box. Everyone is entitled to an opinion; how you express it is the key. Often, I get accused of being too rose-tinted in claiming we’re in a successful period in our history.

So, let’s check some facts, rather than perception.

What is success?

The first barometer of success, obviously, is promotion and trophies. Our most successful period with that in mind was 2016/17-2018/19, where we won three trophies, two divisional titles, and earned promotion to the third tier. This was only the fourth time in our history we were promoted to the actual third tier, rather than a watered-down regional version (the others being 1976, 1981 and 1998).

Following the war, we have had eight promotions, and of those, five have led to a sustained period in the division above (three seasons or more). Only two of those promotions, in 1948 and 1952, saw us enter the second tier, but back then, it came from the old Third Division North, one of two divisions at the same level. I’m not going to argue that our current run of three top-half finishes in a row is better than 2016/17-2018/19, nor that it trumps 1952/53-1960/61, where we spent nine seasons as a Second Division club.

I am going to argue that our current run is a history-buster, though.

Alternate success

I’m going to deal with post-war success, 1946/47 onwards.  If you’re not earning a promotion, which for us is 90% of the time, what does ‘success’ look like? Are we going to argue that not being promoted means a lack of success, and therefore 90% of the time from 1946 onwards, we’ve been unsuccessful? You could, but that would put the five-in-a-row play-off appearances on a par with the back-to-back relegations of 1986 and 1987. That’s obviously not the case. It would also put our final day disappointment from 2023/24 on a par with dropping out of the Football League in 2011.

I would argue that a top-half finish should be classed as success, certainly in the third tier. However, two or three in a row in the top half at any level show a sustained period of being better than more than half of the teams we consider peers, and again, that feels like a degree of success. The time we spent in the Second Division was a huge achievement, but did we establish ourselves in there, when only one season in nine saw a top-half finish?

Top half finishes

I’ve known enough Lincoln City seasons to know we tend to see a top-half finish, then a drop-off. In fact, since the end of World War II, the Imps have only thrice finished in the top half of a single division three or more seasons in a row, and only once was that in the outright third tier.

In terms of sustained top-half finishes in a single division, the 2002/03 to 2006/07 spell is the best. I know we hit the play-offs five years in a row, but it is also the only time since 1946 we’ve had five top-half finishes (in a single division) successively. We did it pre-war, 1927-1932, in the old Division Three North, but Keith’s side (and for one season, Schoeys) provided the most consistent top-half football of the modern era.

After that, the only time (until now) we managed three top-half finishes succesively in the same division was 1949/50-1951/52, achieved after dropping out of the Second Division, in our eagerness to get back to the Second Division. Again, that was effectively the third-and-a-half tier, given that the two were split. Still, it’s a great achievement.

That means that since World War II, the only time Lincoln City have achieved three or more top-half finishes in the outright third tier is right now, 2022/23 onwards. 11th in 2023, 7th in 2024 and 11th in 2025. It’s a run that, aside from what I deem as the Keith era, has not been matched. Not by Murph’s side, they did it twice (1982 and 1983) before dropping off.

Other great runs

Of course, there’s a caveat. We have achieved top-half finishes in three or more consecutive seasons across different divisions. In fact, we’ve done it four times, starting in 1971. Between 1971/72 and 1976/77, we finished top half of Division Four five times (Keith/Schoey’s run matched this), winning it in 1976, and finished in the top half of Division Three the following season. The seventies saw two periods of success, just, as we also achieved four top-half finishes between 1979/80 and 1982/83 – two were in the Fourth Division (7th and 2nd) and two in the Third Division (4th and 6th).

We did it again between 1987/88 and 1990/91, winning the GMVC and twice finishing 10th in Division Four, and finally we did it between 2016/17 and 2018/19 in all three of Danny Cowley’s seasons in charge.

However, it means that there have been just seven runs where we have had three or more consecutive top-half finishes since 1946. Four of those have leveraged a promotion, and one was bouncing back from a relegation. Only two, 2003-2007 and right now, have come from a standing start in a division, and only one (just to stress a point) has come in the outright third tier. You could argue 1972-1976 should be included as a standalone, irrespective of what was achieved in 1977, as it came from a lower-half finish in 1970/71.

Breaking the numbers down

How can we put a number on this? Well, we could add up the final placings in terms of where we finished out of every football club in the country, and then work out the average. How do I mean (you’re probably asking)?

Well (and I know some of you will hate this), we could work out our position in terms of the rest of the Football League. What I mean by that is that under Keith, when we qualified for the play-offs in 2003, we finished sixth. That means we were the 74th-best club in the country at the end of the 2002/03 season. Over the five seasons, we were 74th twice, 75th twice and 73rd once, meaning over the whole run we averaged 74th.

If in that period we were the 74th best club in the country, how did the other runs fare? Under Danny and Nicky, we won three trophies, but averaged out as the 79th-best club in the country. They showed the biggest jump with consistent top-half finishes – from 93rd (National League season) to 69th (winning League Two). 1988-1991 we were, on average, 83rd best, and 1972-1977 we were 71st best.

Under Colin Murphy, between 1980 and 1983, we averaged 61st, but this is where it gets a little complicated. Mixing the two regional divisions together (Division Three North and South), we would have finished fifth, seventh and first (out of the 48 Third Division clubs) between 1950 and 1952, making us, on average, the 53rd-best team in the country. Between 2023 and 2025, our most recent run, we averaged 54th. Whether we can safely compare the 48 teams of the old setup to the 24 we currently face is not for me to decide.

What it does mean is, in terms of our standing in the country, this run is one of two that has seen us not only finish in the top half of our division, but also in the top 55 team in the country (on average) across the period.

Incidentally, I don’t want to ever understate Bill Anderson’s run. Between 1953 and 1961, we were, on average, the 38th-best team in the country, putting us on a par with Stoke City this season. We may have been bottom half in all but one of those seasons, but we were still, on average, one of the top 38 clubs in the country.

Devil’s advocate

Of course, there will be those who remember the John Beck years (for instance) and class those as success – two top half finishes, a promotion and cup runs. I understand that entirely, because I enjoyed those seasons as well. Let’s not forget we’ve also had cup runs in the last three seasons – quarter final of the EFL Trophy, rounds three and four of the League Cup and the third round of the FA Cup.

It could also be said that three top-half finishes without a promotion are the epitome of failure. Three times we’ve troubled the top six and three times failed. I know exactly who will read this and think ‘finally, some sense’, but look at it this way – we had four top-half finishes before we won the Fourth Division title in 1976, and two before winning the Third Division North in 1952. There’s a lot to be said for becoming established in a division, even consolidated, and that’s where we are now. For the first time in our history, we are an established, long-serving member of the third tier.

Does it work the other way?

It’s all well and good saying these are good runs, but what about bad runs? How many times in history have we been on runs that have seen us finish in the bottom half of the table? Have I been selective in saying three top-half finishes, and in fact we rarely have back-to-back bottom-half finishes?

No.

The worst we have ever had was between 2007/08 and 2015/16, where we registered no fewer than nine back-to-back bottom-half finishes, starting with 15th in Peter Jackson’s first season, and ending with 13th in Chris Moyses’ last season. Before that, we finished in the bottom half on seven consecutive occasions between 1956 and 1963, albeit with five of those in Division Two (and one each in Division Three and Division Four).

We’ve had three runs of four bottom-half finishes in a row – 1965-1968 (all Fourth Division, thrice re-elected), 1984-1987 (two relegations) and 1999-2002 (one relegation). In each of those runs, we finished bottom or second bottom of the table at least once (1967, 1987,1999), proving that while I believe success breeds success, a lack of success also feels quite catching.

Make no mistake, Lincoln City finishing top half for three seasons in a row is not something we should take lightly at any level, let alone the third tier.

Conclusion

The numbers don’t lie. I am here to present facts, nothing more.

I may out a table together that outlines every season and our finish in terms of the rest of the country. I could then factor in extra points for cup runs etc. Maybe I will. Maybe I won’t as to avoid accusations on spinning things for a day. Who knows?

What I will say is this. Last season, we were the 55th-best team in the country, only the sixth time since the start of the sixties that we have achieved such a lofty position. That’s worth putting a bit of spin on, right?