Freddie Draper has been a name on Imps’ fans’ lips since his goals against Watford for the U18s a few years back.
Since then, he’s had an interesting time, breaking into the first team, then disappearing before an explosive loan at Walsall. Last season, much was expected, but he perhaps flattered to deceive, and was mainly used as a sub.
Now, he’s looking impressive, bullying Premier League defenders and getting on the scoresheet a couple of times.
The eye test suggests there’s been a shift in his mentality, and in a BBC interview after Harrogate, he admitted he had to do just that.
“My target is not having another season like last year – that just isn’t me,” he said. “I know I’m never going to be the fittest anyway but it’s about putting myself in the right way. I was at Drogheda and then I went to Walsall and I went straight to Lincoln, I only had about a week in 18 months where I had a holiday.
“Then I probably went on too many holidays and tried to enjoy my break, so this season, I planned it a little bit better. I made sure I did all the runs, made sure my weight went down – I got leaner, stronger and more athletic.
“Last season was the biggest learning curve of my career. I don’t want to let that happen again. I want to do everything I can: control the controllable.”
Has that been the case? The eye test might suggest so, but what do the actual numbers tell us about Freddie Draper? Can he follow Jovon Makama into the £1 million bracket?
Freddie Draper in Numbers
I have compared his 2024/25 stats with his current 2025/26. Obviously, he played more games last season, so we’re looking at per 90 minutes numbers.
The headline is all about productivity per minute. Last season, Draper logged 1,887 minutes and scored five, roughly 0.24 goals per 90. Across the first 706 minutes of 2025/26, he already has three, which lifts him to 0.38 per 90.
That uplift sits alongside an improvement in his shot profile. He averaged 2.00 shots per 90 in 2024/25; this season, it is 2.55. The on-target rate has jumped from 35.7% to 50%, the sort of leap that suggests cleaner contacts and better shot selection rather than simple streakiness.
Expected goals give that some context. His xG sat at 5.5 across last season, about 0.26 per 90. This term it is 0.30 per 90. Shot volume is up and chance quality is broadly similar, so the story is a forward getting into the same sorts of areas a touch more often and hitting the target more frequently.
Touches in the box support that picture. Draper registered 213 touches in the penalty area last season, which works out at just over 10 per 90. He is tracking in the same lane this season at a shade above 10 per 90. Progressive runs have ticked up from around 2.7 to just over 3.0 per 90, hinting at a slightly more assertive carry game.
His dribble success has nudged from 40.4% to 43.8%, with attempts per 90 very similar. None of that screams reinvention, but it does suggest incremental gains, the small edges that turn half-chances into shots and shots into goals.
The most obvious expansion is on the creative side. Draper did not register a league assist in 2024/25. By late September, he already has two in 2025/26, and sits at 0.25 assists per 90. Shot assists are running at 0.64 per 90, which marries with the eye test from recent outings where his first action has often been to take up pockets between the lines and slide play forward.
That owes something to usage. Last season he was almost exclusively a centre forward, with a few cameos off the front line. This season there has been a clear split between CF and the ten role, plus a brief look off the left in the cups. The ten role minutes show up in the passing and chance creation and explain why crosses per 90 have appeared on the ledger, even if none have found a target yet in a small sample.
There is a trade-off with that more elastic role. Offside runs per 90 look to have crept up, which is natural for a forward trying to dart beyond centre backs while also stepping into midfield to connect. The benefit has been felt in transition, where he has drawn more contact. Fouls won are up to around 1.5 per 90 from roughly 1.3, a modest rise that helps flip pressure and win territory. Those free kicks matter for a side that are strong on set-plays.
Aerially, there has been a welcome step forward for a big, physical player. His aerial win percentage last season hovered in the low twenties, which is a drag for any striker asked to contest first balls. This season it is closer to thirty. It is still not dominant, but the direction is positive and keeps attacks alive more often.
By contrast, defensive duels won have dipped from the mid-fifties to the mid-forties. That can be a function of where the majority of his duels are happening. In the ten role, he is contesting more tackles and loose-ball duels in tighter central areas rather than setting the press from the top. Those are harder to win and often involve tactical fouls. The cards tally bears that out. Three yellows in 706 minutes is a caution roughly every two and a bit full matches, so he will need to manage the aggression to avoid suspensions.
Minutes and match rhythm frame all of this. In 2024/25 he built towards starts after a run of short cameos, finishing at just under 21 full games worth of football (as in minutes, not actual full games). In 2025/26, he is already above seven and a half full games, and the pattern of selections shows the staff trust him in both roles, starting and finishing matches in league and cup. The early goals at Bolton and Northampton, plus the assist against Luton, are the sort of high-leverage contributions that keep a forward on the team sheet even when the overall sample is small.
If you zoom out, the significant changes are threefold. First, the efficiency gains. More of his shots are hitting the target, and his per-90 goal rate has climbed without relying on a spike in chance quality.
Second, the creative layer. Assists and shot assists have appeared because of the ten role minutes, and he looks more comfortable playing the last pass when he receives to feet. Third, the aerial improvement. He is still growing in that department, but the win rate is better, and that matters if he is to lead the line against back threes who ask their strikers to fight for direct balls.
What has not changed is almost as important. He is still getting into the box at a healthy clip, still carrying the ball forward a few times a game, and still operating as a physical presence who draws contact and occupies centre halves. Add the extra creative thrust and a small bump in finishing, and you have a forward trend upwards.
The caveat is volume. It is early. The foundations, though, look solid, and the versatility across the attack gives Lincoln two ways to use him depending on the opponent and game state. Keep the on-target rate near fifty per cent and the goals will continue to follow.
Conclusion
There is a saying ‘numbers don’t lie, people do’ and in the case of Freddie Draper, it’s the underlying numbers telling the story. The eye test can deceive at times; we see what we want to see. This season, we see Freddie getting better, and the numbers confirm our thoughts.
He’s had a tough time here. He was dropped in too early when we had a striker crisis, and then discarded by Mark Kennedy after the Chippenham debacle. That was his cue to go away and prove a point, which he did with Drogheda and Walsall, but then, by his own admission, he dropped off.
That takes a real strong character to admit when you’ve been in the wrong, and that is what he has done. The result? A new and improved Freddie Draper, with his old positive traits still in place, but a fresher approach, and maybe a slight positional tweak, bringing him into first XI contention every single week.
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