League One Play-Off Analysis: Reading Miss Out, Plymouth To Gatecrash The Top Six

The League One promotion race is entering its final stretch, and the maths tell us half the division could still make the top six.

Ignoring the stats, the eye-test tells us, in my opinion, that anyone down to 13th could feasibly make the top six. I’d discount Peterborough in 12th, but not (quite) Barnsley in 13th. In 14th, AFC Wimbledon have 50 points and would, in my opinion, be out of the hunt as well.

Below is the table as it stands, with Cardiff and us setting the pace. The smart money for the autos is on us and the Bluebirds, and while we’re taking nothing for absolute granted, this article is working on me predicting we’ll both be Championship sides next season.

With that in mind, who do I see as being the sides likely to contest the battle for the third spot in the Championship? Here’s my breakdown.

Fringe Teams

There are a handful of teams I think are fringe contenders, at best. Peterborough are probably out of it by their own admission, and while Barnsley have games in hand, they’re highly unlikely to find themselves much higher than tenth when everything settles down.

Luton Town, currently in 11th, have a relatively favourable run-in. Their only ‘big’ game is against Bolton on the final day of the season, but I don’t think they’ll be around in then. There is a lack of joined-up thinking at the Hatters, which feels odd given that it was coherence and a clear plan that put them in the Premier League. They could have a trophy, though – I fancy them, for the EFL Trophy, which they’ll contest with Stockport on April 12th.

Huddersfield are another side lacking joined-up thinking. Liam Manning has had to take compassionate leave, but he inherited a bit of a mess. They’ve got good players, but nobody seems able to arrange them in such a manner that they can win football matches. With Reading, Cardiff, Bolton and Wycombe to play, they have a chance to reel some sides in, but their lack of identity will likely see them outside the top six with Luton. Two huge teams to watch out for next season.

Finally, Wycombe. I had a gut feeling they’d climb the table and be a real player in the hunt for the top six, and I may underestimate them given their 4-0 thumping of Port Vale and their win at Cardiff. It’s the inconsistency they need to address – those results came either side of defeat at Orient, with Luton victors in the game prior to that. They’ll keep up the pressure, but come the final day, I think they’ll be playing for pride, not places.

Serious Contenders

My predictions are fairly loose, and while I have Wycombe and Stevenage tied on points, I think Wycombe will win on the final day to hit 71, while Stevenage will go into the final day still capable of hitting the top six courtesy of maths. They face Wigan, a side to watch next season under Gary Caldwell, and I think it will be a step too far.

A word on Stevenage: while the Imps will grab the headlines for the budget-busting performance this season, the job Alex Revell does there should not be discounted. Since Evans left, he has continued their ‘us against the world’ approach, and a club of their size shouldn’t be ahead of Luton Town, with four times the budget. Revell won’t get the plaudits; he won’t be on Championship clubs’ radar for their next manager for his direct style, but he should be, he’s worked miracles at Stevenage.

Their run-in features us, Bradford, Bolton and Barnsley, all in the promotion frame (just, in Barnsley’s case) and I think it could just be a step too far. If it isn’t, nobody will want to face them in the play-offs.

Just outside the top six, I have Reading. I can’t work the Royals out, but their next four games are where they’ll lose ground. They face us, Cardiff and Huddersfield, and they need five points from those games, five points I don’t think they’ll get. They host Blackpool on the final day, they’ll need a win and hope results go their way elsewhere and that puts a lot on the Seasiders, who may need a win to stay up.

If you’d asked me early March how I felt about Reading, I’d have backed them for the top six, but they’ve had some injury issues, and losing to Mansfield and Stevenage recently showed their soft underbelly. Another to watch next season, but a side I think fall short this campaign.

In the top four

My guess is that four points could separate sixth and third, but they’ll be a crucial four points. I’ve got Bradford City in sixth, and that might actually suit them. Sixth will play third at home first, and Bradford are good at home. If they finish sixth or fifth, it gives them a platform to build a lead on, to take away in the second leg. It is perceived that a home fixture first is a disadvantage, but I’d back Bradford, if they had a lead, to keep it. If they’re away in the first leg, they’re much more likely to go into the second game needing something.

They’re winless in three, their form has dropped off, but I think they can just about get over the line. It will be close, and while Exeter should be cannon fodder on the final day, Bolton and Plymouth are hugely challenging matches prior to that. Both are at Valley Parade, though, and that’s crucial.

In fifth, I have Bolton Wanderers. Their run-in is just horrible, and their recent form is baffling. After an 11-game unbeaten run, Rotherham, Doncaster and Port Vale should have been the spell where they got the points needed to make their cushion comfortable. Instead, two draws and a defeat will knock confidence, and every single one of the fixtures they have left features a team in this article, a team with something to play for at present. That is going to be crucial, and I think it sends them to my dark horses for promotion in the play-offs, a repeat of the game they’ll play on Good Friday.

I’m backing Plymouth not just to make the top six, but to win the play-offs. I’ve been impressed with them every time I’ve seen them, even though we bagged four. That first half to Home Park was as tough as we’ve had almost all season, Lorent Tolaj is due back soon, and alongside Bim Pepple, that’s fearsome. They’ve got some real quality across the pitch, from Alex Mitchell to Ronan Curtis, and they’re unbeaten in five, including matches against Huddersfield, Reading and Stevenage.

Good Friday is vital for them. If they can topple Bolton, they’ll be in with a serious chance of getting into the top six and if they get there, in my opinion, they stay there.

My final pick is obviously Stockport County. They were another side that impressed me recently, and were it not for us being relentless, they’d have two draws rather than two defeats against us. After Wycombe and Bolton, their run-in looks fairly comfortable, although the fixtures do pile up with a cup final wedged in there. Still, with Exeter, Wimbledon, Barnsley and Port Vale on their fixture list, as well as a Mansfield side who will have nothing to play for by the time they clash, I think Dave Challinor’s team finish third.

Top Two

Finally, while I said the top two were academic, I did predict Cardiff and us at the same time as the play-off hopefuls. The running joke on the podcast is that I always go for 1-1 draws, but I haven’t this time. I’ve got Cardiff picking up 19 points, the same as Plymouth over the next month, and more than us.

However, I have us getting 15, maybe a bold pick given we have Stevenage, Reading and Wycombe to play, but we’ll see. If we do, we’ll be one shy of the 100-point mark, which is madness, and hopefully, three ahead of Cardiff by the time the curtain falls.

The title race will be interesting, but first and foremost, let’s get promotion sorted, and then we can have some fun.

Final Predicted Table