The Imps have the opportunity to crown themselves champions this Saturday in a clash against play-off-pursuing Stevenage at the Lamex, writes Kyle Fox.
After a damaging defeat away to play-off rivals Bolton, Stevenage now sit sixth in the league table on 67 points, three points adrift of Stockport in fifth, who also have a game in hand. The gap to Luton Town in seventh is now just three points, and they will be flying high and brimming with confidence after an upturn in league form and their recent Vertu Trophy final win at Wembley. Both Huddersfield in eighth and Plymouth in ninth trail Stevenage by only four points, although Huddersfield have played a game more.
Boro also top the table for the fewest goals conceded at home, with just 11 over the course of 20 matches. Despite being one of the lower scorers in the division, they have scored in each of their last nine home games. The hosts have won three consecutive home matches heading into this fixture and have not conceded a single goal in any of them. They are joint second for goals conceded, with 74% of those 43 goals coming away from home. Of the 26 times Stevenage have taken the lead this season, they have only conceded an equaliser on seven occasions, which translates to a rate of 27%.
Stevenage Form
After Christmas, Stevenage went on a run of seven games without a win, including damaging defeats to Cardiff, Luton and a heavy loss away at Exeter. This poor run of form continued until the start of February, with their only victory coming at home to Peterborough at the end of January. A defeat away to Northampton at the beginning of February made it one win in 11 games since 20th December.
Following that run, Boro’s form dramatically improved up to the present day. This recent period has seen them rack up eight wins, one draw and four defeats. Losses to Wycombe, Leyton Orient, Plymouth and, most recently, Bolton were damaging. However, victories over Bradford, Reading, Stockport and Huddersfield have all been hugely important in Stevenage’s pursuit of a play-off place.
Prior to their heaviest defeat of the season on Tuesday night, Alex Revell’s side went four games unbeaten, keeping a clean sheet in each of them. The hosts sit fourth in the form table over the past ten games, with six wins, three losses and a draw, scoring and conceding nine goals apiece. Having a goal difference of zero over that period, and just +1 overall, is unusual for a side so high in both the league and form table. They also rank eighth for form over the past six games, with three wins, two losses and a draw, and a goal difference of -2.
Stevenage rank second for goals conceded per match with just 1.0, placing them just behind the Imps, who lead the way on 0.9. Both sides are also joint top with 17 clean sheets apiece, while the home side rank third for set-piece goals conceded with only ten.
Going forward, they place 15th for shots on target per match (3.5), 22nd for big chances created (70) and 17th for touches in the opposition penalty area (832).
Jamie Reid remains the main attacking threat for the home side, with 13 league goals and three assists. Harvey White and Dan Kemp are also key players, with 11 and nine combined goals and assists respectively. The centre-back pairing of Charlie Goode and the infamous Carl Piergianni have also played a vital role in their impressive defensive record.
Credit Graham Burrell
Team News
For City, Michael Skubala explained in his pre-match press conference that the injury situation remains the same following the Leyton Orient game last Saturday. He spoke about the likes of Josh Honohan, Freddie Draper and Adam Jackson, and the fact that it is essential they are not rushed back with pre-season and the start of next season in mind. They all may feature before the end of the season, but only if it is right and will not jeopardise their injury situation or cause them any issues further down the line.
Alex Revell revealed that key defender Lewis Freestone will now be out injured, potentially up until the start of next season after a knee injury he sustained ten minutes into their win away at Bradford last weekend. Freestone will have surgery to rectify the issue with his knee. At the start of the Easter weekend, another defender, Luther Wildin, was substituted due to injury 18 minutes into their clash with Rotherham. He should be back within the next week or two but will miss this fixture. However, they have had two defensive players return from injury lately, with former Imp Saxon Earley playing 51 minutes against Bolton while Dan Butler returned to the matchday squad in the same game for the first time since November. Another defender, Dan Sweeney, also went off injured in the first half of that fixture. Midfielder Daniel Phillips will also miss this game after being sent off on Tuesday evening. Both forward players Harry Cornick and Chem Campbell haven’t featured since February. Striker Gassan Ahadme has been sidelined since early December.
Predicted Stevenage XI
Marschall, Piergianni, Goode, Earley, Pattenden, Houghton, White, Roberts, Kemp, Reid, Phillips.
Credit Graham BurrellPrevious Meetings
Both teams have met frequently over recent years in both League One and Two. The Imps have the better of those meetings overall with five wins. The latest one of those coming back in October in a dominant display that ended in a 1-0 win at home.
Lincoln are unbeaten in the last four meetings with two wins and two draws. That included their last victory at the Lamex in August 2024.
The last win for Stevenage in this fixture came in October 2023 which was also Michael Skubala’s first game in charge.
Prediction
Stevenage 0-1 Lincoln
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