This season, Tom Bayliss has made an encouraging start at Lincoln City, with the early numbers highlighting his quality in possession and ability to recover the ball further up the pitch.
As I am ill at home, not at Deepdale, I thought I’d choose to do a quick article on Tom. Why? Because he’s been picked by Chris and Tom for this afternoon’s game, and there has been an outpouring of anger, which is not entirely justified. We saw the same last season after we lost to Wycombe, which I’d forgotten until I started this article.
Did I think we’d start with Tom? No. Would I have picked Tom? No. However, suggestions that he somehow isn’t up to scratch are slightly rubbished by stats. I appreciate there will be some eye-test warriors who see football better than coaches, but I tend to think like this: if the people at the top of the game use stats to measure performance, and such an approach helped put Brentford in the Premier League, then maybe they’re onto something?
So, Tom Bayliss in 2026/27. The midfielder has played 280 minutes across six appearances in all competitions, including a full game against Bournemouth and 73 minutes in the Carabao Cup victory at Blackpool. It remains a relatively small sample, while comparing an individual player with wider team figures is not always straightforward. Tom’s numbers are calculated per 90 minutes, whereas City’s figures represent the team’s average output per match. However, the success rates provide some useful indications of where he has performed above or below the collective level.
Passing is perhaps the clearest strength to emerge. Tom has completed 85.2% of his passes, comfortably above City’s team accuracy of 77.2%. He averages almost 37 passes per 90, giving him a significant share of the ball whenever he is on the pitch. His long passing has also been effective. Tom has completed 80% of his attempts, compared with a team rate of 51.5%. The volume is low at 1.61 long passes per 90, suggesting he is selective rather than regularly attempting ambitious balls from deep.
That pattern is also visible in his crossing. Tom has found a teammate with two of his three crosses, producing a 66.7% success rate against City’s collective figure of 36.7%. Three attempts are not enough to establish a reliable trend, but the early signs are positive. There has already been a tangible attacking return. Tom scored and provided an assist during the cup victory at Blackpool, leaving him with 0.32 goals and 0.32 assists per 90. He has a second assist as well, playing a role in the goal against Southampton last weekend.
He has attempted only two shots across his six appearances, hitting the target once against Blackpool. His 50% accuracy exceeds City’s team figure of 30.8%, but he is not yet getting into shooting positions regularly enough to be considered one of the side’s primary attacking threats.
His work without the ball is arguably more revealing. Tom averages 11.89 recoveries per 90, and almost 65% of those have come in the opposition half. That is a particularly interesting number within a Lincoln City side which looks to press and force mistakes in advanced areas. It suggests Tom is not simply collecting possession in deeper positions, but actively contributing to the team’s attempts to win the ball closer to goal.
He also records 3.86 interceptions per 90. Combined with his recovery figures, that points towards a midfielder who reads play well and can help City sustain pressure after losing possession.
Physically, Tom has competed reasonably well. He wins 54.3% of his overall duels, slightly better than City’s team rate of 52.2%. His 50% success rate in defensive duels is marginally below the collective figure, but he has won two-thirds of his aerial contests. The latter is a useful return for a central midfielder, although it comes from a limited number of challenges. As with the attacking statistics, more minutes will be required before it can be considered a settled pattern, but we’re talking here about a player people suggest can’t make the step up, so we can only work with numbers from the step up.
Tom has also been relatively secure in possession. He loses the ball 8.68 times per 90, but only 22.2% of those losses occur in his own half. Most of the turnovers therefore come when he is operating in more advanced and less dangerous areas.
The early picture is of an efficient and dependable midfielder, not really one to be scapegoated. I appreciate this article could be ill-timed, and a poor performance against Preston could be telling. Still, Tom is passing with greater accuracy than the team as a whole, competing well in duels and making a notable contribution to regaining possession in opposition territory. He has not yet produced a high volume of shots, crosses or ambitious passes, while his goal and assist at Blackpool account for all his direct attacking output, aside from the second assist. However, the underlying numbers suggest he has brought composure and intelligence to the midfield, and while he may not be everyone’s first choice, the level of hate levied at him is grossly unfair.
The next step is to produce those qualities consistently over a longer run of Championship minutes. For now, though, Tom Bayliss appears to be performing above the wider team rate in several important areas.
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