Early in the second half came the double hit of the post, and I completely understand thinking that a goal there finishes the contest. Reach does really well, Draper peels off and produces a good header against the woodwork. I’m not going to hammer a striker for that effort, because there’s a lot to like about it.
Jefferies then looks certain to score, but I actually think his technique is good. He’s trying to find the nearest part of the goal rather than send the ball across the keeper and through the bodies, and he hits the inside of the post. You can say he should score, but sometimes that goes in or comes back for another finish. We’d already scored twice from xG that didn’t fully amount to a goal, and I don’t think that moment alone proves we’re wasteful.
Millwall gradually worked their way back, with Luke Cundle having a big chance before Lisbie scored. Camiel Neghli’s cross should have been dealt with better, although Coubis made an excellent initial block. George Wickens had committed towards that first effort and the bounce wasn’t kind to him, while Deji Elerewe was on the line. You’d usually expect somebody to keep it out, but it got through.
There were shades of Tahith Chong’s goal at Sheffield United in the way the danger developed down our left, although the angle wasn’t quite as tight. I don’t want to be overly critical of Wickens for having moved to deal with the original threat. It was frustrating, but you expect Championship opponents to create problems.
Actually, Millwall felt like the most toe-to-toe contest we’ve had. I didn’t get the same feeling of quality I had watching Leo Scienza at Southampton, Yu Hirakawa at Bristol City or Samuel Iling-Junior at Bolton, where somebody gets the ball and you immediately worry. Lisbie was their best threat, which we knew from his Peterborough days, but much of what Millwall offered felt familiar: hard work, physicality and a battle we could match.
Then came the chance which really hurt, because we should have restored the two-goal lead. Jefferies helped create it through his work, before Varfolomeev showed lovely technique to feed Draper into the channel. Chris Cohen praised Jefferies’ technique afterwards, and I thought he played well, although I see his biggest strengths in his graft, movement and getting into useful positions.
Draper’s opportunity was difficult, but he did what a striker should and forced a save from Max Crocombe. Then it was Gazza in 1996 all over again, with Hackett arriving a few yards out and the ball running across him. Any touch surely puts it in, yet he couldn’t turn it home. Wyscout records it as an attempt, so there appears to have been contact, which makes watching it disappear behind even more painful.
That’s the one where I’m saying you’ve got to score. At 3-1 I think we’re writing it up and going home with three points, but the escape gave Millwall another reason to believe. It was a huge opportunity, although it shouldn’t erase the quality of our finishing before the break.
The balance shifted as Millwall threw more attacking players on, and Wickens produced an outstanding save when Romain Esse’s deflected cross put Lisbie clean through. Their second-half xG was 3.15, but that needs some explanation. The big Cundle chance and the cluster of efforts around the equaliser account for a substantial chunk, with roughly 0.86 in one moment and 0.98 in another.
You can rack up plenty of xG from repeated attempts in a single scramble, which is why I want to look at the actual incidents as well as the total. That doesn’t mean Millwall weren’t applying pressure, because they clearly were. From around the 77th minute onwards, the game was increasingly theirs.
Their equaliser came from the corner where the ball bounced around, with Caleb Taylor involved before Jake Cooper scooped it in. My initial instinct was to defend our defending because of the chaos, but watching it again, it does look like we had chances to clear. We wanted to create chaos in their area and didn’t deal particularly well with it in ours.
At 2-2 I didn’t think we were going to win: quite the opposite, I feared a defeat. The balance had shifted, the crowd that had been on Millwall’s backs at half-time was behind them, and there were still eight minutes plus stoppage time to negotiate. I’d back us to defend for that spell, but then Elerewe was sent off.
For me, it wasn’t even a foul, never mind a red card. The ball was running away, Wickens was getting there, and Elerewe used his body to shrug Zak Lovelace off, something you see defenders do time and again. Watching it, I couldn’t see either official initially give anything, then out came the red. It was a disgraceful decision, and I sincerely hope we try to overturn it.
The officiating was utterly abysmal, with the inconsistency almost as infuriating as the dismissal itself. Callum Elder was wiped out off the ball during a Millwall attack, and nothing was given, yet Elerewe’s use of his body brought a sending-off. Ten yellows from 25 fouls, six of them to Millwall, tells part of the story; compare that with two from 17 at Preston or three from 23 against Swansea.
I’m not claiming a referee has to hand out cards at a particular ratio, but this one looked completely out of his depth, and he is one of the fast-track referees I had an issue with in League One. There were challenges going unpunished and other moments attracting cards when they scarcely merited a free kick. As things stand, we face Burnley without Hamer, Elerewe and Draper, and I think two of those absences stem from incorrect decisions.
Still, referee aside, consider what we did after the red card, with Wednesday still in those legs and Millwall throwing everything at us. We reorganised into a 4-4-1 and defended stoically, protecting the point under really difficult circumstances. I thought we were excellent in that final spell, which deserves acknowledging alongside the disappointment about the chances.
I didn’t feel particularly generous about any of this yesterday. I was ill, upset that I couldn’t be there, and angry about the referee, the missed chances and the lead disappearing. That’s why I try to sleep before writing these assessments, rather than turn the adrenaline of the final whistle into an opinion I’m then obliged to defend for days on social media.
This morning, imagine being upset about drawing away at the team that finished third last season, at a ground everyone tells you is a horrible place to go. It felt like Luton in January, when a 2-0 lead became 2-2, and the point felt like a defeat. Reverse the order of those goals, and we’d all be celebrating a brave, battling comeback. The effort deserves the same recognition whichever order they go in.
We had nine shots, three on target, and scored twice, outperforming our 1.69 xG. Millwall had 18 shots, six on target and also scored twice. Nobody takes every chance, and saying we needed to be more clinical shouldn’t obscure the fact that clinical finishing put us two up. We can be heartbroken about Hackett’s miss and still recognise that.
And yes, I’m going to mention the budget again, because people will tell me I can’t keep going on about it. We’re 24th in the budget table, with our players paid less than the other Championship squads. You can demand that we stop mentioning it, but that won’t make the difference disappear. Luke Graham scored Stoke’s winner at Derby yesterday, and Barney Stewart scored in West Brom’s 3-2 victory over Blackburn. We wanted those players and were priced out as the fees and wages went beyond us. That’s a practical example of what money buys, and anybody insisting budgets are irrelevant to the quality available in this division, with respect, probably doesn’t understand the game.
Of course we can still ask questions about defending or missed opportunities, but I can’t assess our performances as though everybody started with the same resources. Add those resources to Wednesday’s exertions, the suspensions, the travel and the early kick-off, and yesterday was a very good point. West Ham also had two away trips this week, including Swansea yesterday, but at least their Saturday game started at three.
One point from nine, eleven conceded, and two scored makes this a horrible week on paper. Even our three xG figures add up to 4.78, which shows we’ve created opportunities without suggesting every one ought to go in. I can accept the lack of clinical finishing being an issue at Sheffield United, or against Blackburn Rovers, but not at Millwall. Yesterday we answered some of the questions about our response to adversity, and we did it against a side with every reason to make life difficult.
Now we have a full week to get bruised and battered bodies back in and concentrate on Burnley. There are no must-win games at this stage, but with their position in the table, next Saturday is a massive opportunity to get that first home victory. Four points separate us in 18th from Blackburn in tenth, while Millwall in 11th are only three ahead, so there is plenty within reach.
My mate Pete messaged this morning, calling it a great point, hoping the red gets overturned and pointing out the back-to-back home games. When Pete is so glowing positive, it does make me think a little, and as the fog of disappointment clears this morning, I’ve felt so much better about the result. When you take a breath, he’s right, however painful those missed opportunities remain. It’s been a tough week, but Lincoln City have come out of it swinging a few punches, showed a cutting edge in some moments, and I’m happier recognising that this morning than I was yesterday afternoon.
Up the Imps.
Comments Welcome!