Someone Always Comes From Nowhere – Is This a Play-Off Myth?

February 23, 2024 Gary Lincoln City, Stat Attack 0

I do love a challenge, especially one that I decide to take up when in the bath, and that then makes me get out, come to the office, and strike up Soccerbase.

We’re currently 10th, with 45 points from 33 games. Realistically, we’re going to need 30 points from those games to touch the top six, so 2.3 points per game. It’s cool though, because there’s always one team, isn’t there?

Isn’t there?

Well, I thought I’d have a quick look. I’ve only done League One because in League Two, you only have to finish seventh, so it has no bearing on our efforts.I need to see if any team has come from tenth, got 2.3 points per game, and finished top six. If not, I can at least show there’s always one team.

There must always be one team.

FYI – the images i’ve included show Imps in action from the years I’m talking about. They’re just for fun!

Credit Graham Burrell

2022/23

The playoffs consisted of Sheff Weds (96 points), Barnsley (86), Bolton (81) and Peterborough (77). The side that were furthest down the table on February 23rd were Peterborough in ninth, with 47 points from 30 matches. No precedent to start with.

2021/22

MK Dons (89), Sheff Weds (85), Sunderland (84), and Wycombe (83) made the play-offs, but on February 22nd, Sheff Weds were the furthest down, in eighth with 55 points from 32 matches. Damn, we go on looking.

2020/21

You may already notice something here, but we’ll press on anyway. In 2021, Blackpool (80), Sunderland (77), us (77) and Oxford (74) made the top six. We were second on Feb 22nd (painfully), but Blackpool were 14th, with 40 points from 26 games. Now, they may have come from nowhere, but they averaged 40 points from 20 games, a run of two points per game. Even if we matched that run, we’d have 68 points, not enough for a top six finish.

Credit Graham Burrell

2018/19

I’ve skipped 2019/20 because I didn’t feel the COVID-19 season was a fair reflection. So, in 2018/19, Charlton (88), Portsmouth (88), Sunderland (85) and Doncaster (73) made the cut. In February, the same four teams made up the top six.

2017/18

Whilst we were making our own lateish run to the top seven in League Two, Shrewsbury (87), Rotherham (79), Scunthorpe (74) and Charlton (71) were staking their claim for a place in the Championship. On Feb 22nd 2018, all four were in the top six.

2016/17

Whilst we were tearing up the National League, Scunthorpe (82), Fleetwood (82), Bradford (79) and Millwall (73) were making up the top six in the division. Of those four teams, all were already in the top seven. The pattern emerging here is quite emphatic, but we’ll keep going backward.

Credit Graham Burrell

2015/16

Walsall (84), Millwall (81), Bradford (80) and Barnsley (74) were the sides that made up the play-offs in 2015/16, the last BC (before Cowley) season at Sincil Bank. The furthest down the table in February at the same stage were Barnsley in tenth, with 46 points from 32 matches. That’s pretty close – they had one more point from one game fewer, meaning they made up 28 points.

2014/15

I can’t draw a comparison between this season in terms of Lincoln because almost everything between 2011 and 2015 blurs into this horrible mess where all I can see is the Ebbsfleet and Dartford kits. Anyway, in League One, Preston (89), Swindon (79), Sheff Utd (71) and Chesterfield (69) made up the top six. Only Chesterfield were outside the top six – they were 10th with 42 points from 32 matches. In 14 matches, they made up 27 points so it can be done… however, they were only three points outside the top six in February.

2013/14

Okay, I kinda want to give up now, but I also have this morbid obsession with finding the one (more) season where we could go, ‘yes, it can be done’. Is that season 2013/14? No. Orient (86), Rotherham (86), Preston (85) and Peterborough (74) were the play-off teams, and all were in the top six on Feb 23rd.

Credit – Graham Burrell

2012/13

The further we go back, the more bizarre the combination of teams feels. Brentford (79), Yeovil (77), Sheff Utd (75) and Swindon (74) made up the top six. All were top seven on Feb 23rd.

2011/12

What a season this was in Yorkshire – Sheff Utd were second in Feb, but finished third. Who were third in Feb and finished second? Sheff Weds. Huddersfield were fourth in Feb and finished fourth. MK Dons (80) and Stevenage (73) made up the rest of the top six, but they were also fifth and sixth in Feb,

2010/11

What a shitty year this was. As we lost our dignity and our league status, Huddersfield (87), Peterborough (79) MK Dons (77) and Bournemouth (71) made up the top six. Did one of them come from nowhere? No. They were all top six in February.

Credit Graham Burrell

2009/10

The adage ‘there’s always a team that makes a late push’ should probably be ‘there’s hardly ever a team that makes a late push’ – certainly not as late as Feb 23rd onwards. In 2009/10, Millwall (85), Charlton (84), Swindon (82) and Huddersfield (80) made the grade. How many of those came from outside the top seven in Feb? Zero.

2008/09

I kinda feel I want to go back to the beginning of the century – if you’re still reading, it feels like I owe it to you. MK Dons (87), Leeds (84), Millwall (82) and Scunthorpe (76) contested the play-offs. Only Leeds were outside the top six in Feb, and they had 51 points from 32 games, sitting eighth.

2007/08

Doncaster (80), Carlisle (80), Leeds (76, but deducted 15) and Southend (76) were the teams in the top six, but not going up automatically. Leeds, again, were furthest back in Feb, but only ninth with 47 points from 33 games. Mind you, that’s a haul of 29 points from 13 games. Now, if we took 29 points from our remaining 13 games, we’d be on 74 – is this another precedent? Could 73 be enough? It would have been in six of the seasons that have followed.

Credit Graham Burrell

2006/07

The final season of our own little play-off adventure, where we should have gone up automatically, was one where 75 points were required in the division above. Blackpool (83), Forest (82) Yeovil (79) and Oldham (75) made up the play-off teams. Blackpool made a late-ish run; they were eighth in Feb, with 48 points from 31 games. In their last 15 games, they bagged 35 points, or 2.3 points per game. The same run for us would bring around the 30-point mark, taking us to 75….. I think this is the fourth precedent showing it can just about be done

2005/06

It seems to be that if we were in the mid-2000s, we might stand a chance. Brentford (76), Huddersfield (73), Barnsley (72) and Swansea (71) were the four teams in the play-offs, but all were top six in Feb.

2004/05

Tranmere (79), Brentford (75), Sheff Weds (72) and Hartlepool (71) made up the top six. Brentford were 10th on Feb 23rd, with 50 points from 31 matches – five more than we have now from two fewer matches.

Credit Graham Burrell

2003/04

I’m going back to 99/00, and that’s it. So, in 2003/04, do we find another precedent that gives us that little bit of hope? Kind of. We are now talking about League Division Two, not League One, but it is still the third tier. Bristol City (82), Brighton (77), Swindon (73) and Hartlepool (73) are the four play-off teams. In Feb, Hartlepool were tenth, with 44 points from 31 matches. That’s one point fewer than we have now, albeit from two fewer games.

2002/03

I’m clutching here. In 2003, Bristol City (83), QPR (83), Oldham (82) and Cardiff (81) contested the play-offs. All were in the top six in February. No late runs, no last-gasp push.

2001/02

I’m going to whizz through these because I think we all know the outcome by now. Brentford (83), Cardiff (83), Stoke (80) and Huddersfield (78) made up the play-off teams. Guess how many came from outside the top eight teams in the division? yep. None.

2000/01

Reading (86), Walsall (81), Stoke (77), and Wigan (75) ended up in the play-offs to decide a place in the second tier. All were top six in February. We have one season left…. has another team come from 10th in the years between our stints in the third tier?

1999/00

No, of course not, because it is pie-in-the-sky. Gillingham (85), Wigan (83), Millwall (82), and Stoke (82) made up the top six sides, and of those only Gillingham could be touted as having made a late run – they were eighth with 49 points from 28 games on February 23rd. Four points more and having played five games fewer than us right now.

Conclusion

“Someone always comes from nowhere to grab the last play off place” – I’m afraid that’s bollocks. It has been done, and occasionally a team has climbed from tenth, twice with the sort of points-to-games ratio that we need to stand a chance.

That said, it would have taken 100 years of research to find a non-league team contesting an FA Cup quarter-final place had I done an article in 2015/16, but a year later, we tore up the record books, so never stop dreaming!

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