Valentine’s Day 2026. A game in which there will be no love lost between the two sides — and a day that could hold monumental significance in this year’s race for automatic promotion to the Championship, writes Kyle Fox.
Saturday’s clash is between the teams currently occupying second and third positions in the league. Lincoln are the most in-form side in the division over the last five games — and even beyond that — while rivals Bolton rank second over the same period. City currently sit second, holding a six-point lead over Bolton, having also played a game fewer, further increasing the importance of this fixture — arguably even more so for the visitors.
After blowing Barnsley away in the first half last time out, the Trotters were forced to endure a tense finish. Two goals in three second-half minutes meant Bolton had to dig in before eventually securing a 3–2 victory. Following a difficult spell from late December to mid-January, they have rediscovered their form in recent weeks to climb into third place. By contrast, Lincoln have remained consistent and are unbeaten since the end of November, maintaining the advantage they built over Bolton.
The Imps lead the league for scoring first in games this season (20 of 30 matches — 67%), for leading at half-time (19 of 30), and rank among the highest for average time spent ahead in games (43.9 minutes — 49%). It was therefore a rare occurrence last Saturday when Plymouth went 1–0 up in the first half. That lead lasted 27 minutes before City equalised, and from there they dominated the second half, adding three more goals to run out comfortable winners.
Bolton Wanderers Form
As referenced before, Bolton’s form has vastly improved lately and over the last six games they have won five and drew just once away at Stevenage. However, something to note is that in two of those games (Leyton Orient and Burton Albion at home) they ended up having to rely on the winning goals coming after the 90 minute mark. They also beat Wigan and Wimbledon away plus Barnsley at home in their last game. In those six matches, they scored nine goals and only conceded four.
Before this latest run of positive results, the previous six games saw them win just once, while losing three and drawing two. The defeats came against Wycombe, Peterborough (both away) & Mansfield (home). The two draws were 1-1 against Doncaster and a stalemate against Northampton, with the win coming at home against Rotherham. Bolton are second in the table for overall results at home in the league with Lincoln right on their tails in third. However, they actually rank a bit further down in the away results table where they sit in eighth at present. They have only won four games on the road, but two of those came in their last three away games which demonstrates their recent improvement on that front.
Although Bolton sit eighth in the away results table, they have actually scored in 11 of the 15 matches they have played to this point. They place 1st for xG, xG conceded, xG difference (xG for and against), touches in the opposition’s box and goals conceded per match. They also sit in 2nd for possession won in the final third per match, accurate crosses per match, average possession, accurate passes per match, big chances created and also big chances missed. In short, they are a very good team.
After having an inconsistent first half of the season, striker Sam Dalby has hit a purple patch recently with four goals and an assist in his last three games. Mason Burstow is Bolton’s top league scorer with eight goals alongside picking up three assists. Amario Cozier-Duberry will remain a huge miss for them (he tops their joint goals and assists chart). All Imps will also be well aware of what to expect from Ethan Erhahon and the quality he possesses after becoming a nailed on starter due to his performances lately.
Team News
Bolton head into this fixture with a massive double injury boost, after Steven Schumacher confirmed that both Josh Sheehan and Max Conway have returned to training this week and are available for selection on Saturday. Both could have a significant impact, with Conway having featured in 29 league matches this season and Sheehan widely regarded as one of Bolton’s standout performers. New striker Johnny Kenny could also make his debut, having been sidelined through injury until now. However, Amario Cozier-Duberry and Marcus Forss remain long-term absentees.
There were no updates on the injury front during Michael Skubala’s pre-match press conference this week, and little appears to have changed since last weekend. It seems both Adam Jackson and Josh Honohan are still not yet fit enough to compete for a place in the squad. The only potential concern surrounds Ivan Varfolomeev, who was involved in a head collision and withdrawn at half-time against Plymouth.
Changes to the starting XI this weekend are a possibility, however, after Skubala hinted at rotation in his press conference:
“The team will probably start to change — maybe for Bolton, maybe further on. I’m quite conscious that we’ve had a few games now and haven’t really changed the starting line-up. It will have to in the coming weeks to make sure we get the best out of the squad.”
Bolton Wanderers Predicted XI
Bonham, Johnston, Forino-Joseph, Toal, Conway, Erhahon, Sheehan, Apter, McAtee, Blackett-Taylor, Dalby.
Previous Meetings
These two teams have met frequently over recent years together in League One, with the game August 2025 being the latest one. Lincoln started ridiculously quickly, scoring within 20 seconds of the kick off. Bolton went on to utterly dominate the second half but only found an equaliser through a Tom Hamer own goal in the 97th minute.
Lincoln beat Bolton 4-2 at home towards the end of last season after losing the reverse fixture 3-0 in December 2024 plus an EFL Trophy defeat at home in January 2025. Prior to that, Lincoln were winless in the previous six meetings- drawing once and losing five.
Prediction
Lincoln 2-1 Bolton
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