Obviously, Michael Skubala and Lincoln City want to win every game. We hear it all the time: every game is worth three points.
He’s right, it is, but as fans, we look at games, runs and wonder what we might need. Shall we break it down a little, for fun (not for those who do not want to think about it)? The key here is, what do we need to do to get promoted? Yes, get more points than Bolton, and Stockport, Bradford and Huddersfield. I guess 19 points and a game in hand make Huddersfield unlikely to catch us, but what of Bolton?
Our run-in
Firstly, let us look at our run-in. We have home games against Stockport, Rotherham, Orient, Wimbledon and Wycombe. On our travels, we have Cardiff, Huddersfield, Exeter, Doncaster, Reading, Stevenage and Port Vale. There are a few tough fixtures, we play all five of the sides that have beaten us this season, one of which, Exeter City, felt really tough until they were tonked this weekend.
Obviously, the worst case is zero points, and the best case is 36, which is simple maths.
If we take our worst league run of the season, we are talking the 1-1 draw at Mansfield to the 3-2 defeat at Wycombe. That was 12 matches, and we took three draws, four defeats and five wins. So, our worst run of the season has brought us 18 points from 12 matches. Bear that in mind.
Bolton Wanderers
Let us put it simply, if Bolton win all of their matches, they will have 94 points. It is unlikely, but if they did, we would need to win eight of our remaining 12 matches. Do that, we hit 95 points, and we are up. So, we can lose four of the next 12, win the rest, and nobody can catch us.
If they were to win their home matches and draw their away matches, they would hit 23 points. Wanderers’ best run of the season over 11 matches was seven wins, two draws and two defeats, which brought them 23 points. Their most recent run of 11 matches has brought them 22. If they now match their best run of the season, then they would have 84 points, meaning we would only need four wins and a draw, if the current +16 goal difference we have over them remained the same.
I think they could, feasibly, get 13 from the next 15, Wycombe (H), Rotherham (A), Doncaster (H), Port Vale (A) and Stevenage (H). That is a big run, but they will need to hit their points tally, because after that, it is not great.
Plymouth (A) is a lot tougher than it was for us. Easter Monday they play Stockport, a massive challenge, followed by Cardiff away a week later. They then host Huddersfield and go to Bradford, both teams that will be scrapping for points for the play-offs. Finally, they face Luton, who I think will be out of it by then.
Points prediction from me, using a normal human brain and not a supercomputer? I have got them on 24: 13 from the next 15, then a point at Plymouth, three from Cardiff and Stockport, four from Huddersfield and Bradford, and then three against Luton.
What we need
So, if they do get 24, which seems about right, then we need 15, which would be five wins. With 12 games to play, that is doable, we took five wins in our worst run of the season, as well as three draws. Of course, it means we could probably get four wins, three draws and five defeats, doubling our number of defeats for the season.
When we break it down like this, it feels achievable, but week by week, the changing gap is the issue, is it not? I was worried when they went 1-0 up this weekend and we were 0-0, but why? Because we would only be eight points and a game in hand ahead? Silly Lincoln fan.
The games are running out for them, and they have got a really tough little spell. I think the automatic promotion race will be defined by two short runs of games, our next four and their post-Easter run. If we come out of the next four games with six or seven points, we are in a good place, and the pressure shifts to them and their solid little spell after Good Friday.
One thing is for sure, the gap that we have opened means we are going to be in the hunt over the Easter Weekend whatever happens, we could lose our next five, they win their next four, and we would still only be two points behind them going into their critical Easter period.
Ifs, buts, maybes, and conjecture. It is all pointless, is it not? We win games, and we go up. If we win our next eight fixtures, we are promoted by mid-April. If we do not, then all eyes will be on Lancashire.
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