Whatever happens this season, I think we can all agree on one thing: very few players, if any, have failed to impress. Dom Jefferies has certainly caught my eye in recent weeks, even as a super sub.
I said last season I felt we were a good side, but we had players at peak maybe 70% of the time. That was mainly due to injuries and players taking a while to come back. Remember, last season we lost Jovon Makama, Dom and Jack Moylan to injury, and had the likes of Reeco Hackett, Ben House and Ethan Hamilton having to come back. It took some of those players a while to get up and running and you could argue, certainly in the case of Hamilton, a hugely underrated player for us, he never really hit top form at all.
This season, even players who have been out injured have impressed. Jack Moylan missed a chunk of the season and has come back in on fire. Tom Bayliss and Ben House dipped out, were adequately covered, and then came back in full of hunger, and then there is Dom Jefferies.
When Dom first signed, it was something of a surprise signing. We didn’t need a central midfielder, which was how he was billed, but he felt very Lincoln City. Millwall and Fehervar were credited with an interest after he stood out for the Gills. It’s now known when we signed him, the issue that kept him out over the summer flagged up on the medical, and while it didn’t scupper the deal, it probably made him more available to City.
Here is the thing. Without the pre-existing issue that he has now sorted, we probably don’t get Dom Jefferies when he leaves Gillingham. The fact he had it, and we didn’t find an obvious spot for him in the first team, may have made his signing feel ‘small’, as in not a major capture. However, if Championship clubs, and top flight European clubs have you on their radar, it isn’t small when you join a League One club.
In fact, FotMob valued him at £440,000 when he signed for us, the highest value he has had on the site throughout his career. Harshly, that means they saw his value drop with us.
Dom impressed last season, but he never found a home. Left wing back was perhaps his preferred spot, but when we switched to a flat four, his role became less defined. I can’t forget the image of him being sent on, and then taken off, against Charlton on April 5th. He looked so frustrated going off the field, and with his surgery brought forward, that was the last Imps fans saw of him.
He’d had a decent season, three goals and three assists, but without grinding out a permanent role, it did feel like he was the man who patched things up. He had energy, endeavour, and often drew praise from Chris on the podcast for his ability to adapt to different positions, intelligent and reactive in his play.
It is this season that has prompted me to do this highlight piece. Normally, when a player comes back from injury, it takes a while, and I would argue very few miss pre-season, most of autumn and still have a huge impact for their club. I cite Hamilton and Hackett last season, but House the season before is another. If you miss pre-season, miss those frantic Saturday-Tuesday late summer months, you’re so far behind.
Dom came back in November, getting his first league start in December. By the time he got that first start against Barnsley, City had played 26 matches in all competitions, and friendlies as well. That’s a big chunk of the season he had to watch and work on his fitness, and he’d be forgiven for maybe being a bit-part player over the next few months.
He hasn’t been. He’s been involved a lot, 526 minutes, from the bench and as a starter. Rather than simply being a squad player, I think he’s raised his level to where he feels better than last season. Maybe he’s feeling fitter and stronger from the surgery. Maybe it’s the playing in a confident team, much happier brushing teams aside.
Maybe we’re just seeing the Dom Jefferies that Millwall and Fehervar wanted. Maybe we’re seeing that FotMob-rated £400,000 player. Whatever we’re seeing, I like it.
Dom Jefferies stats
Here is the bit Chris loves, some numbers. According to FotMob, across his 526 minutes this season, Dom has produced a strong attacking return relative to the chances he has been expected to convert. He has scored two goals from an expected goals (xG) total of 1.15, meaning he is finishing above expectation so far. That suggests a player taking good quality chances and converting them efficiently when opportunities arise. The same pattern can be seen creatively. Jefferies has two assists from 1.14 expected assists (xA), indicating that his final ball has also been productive relative to the quality of chances he has created. With nine chances created and two big chances fashioned, he has shown the ability to influence games both as a scorer and a provider.
There are also encouraging indicators in his broader attacking profile. His crossing numbers stand out in particular, with his successful crosses percentage placing him in the 96.9th percentile, a figure that highlights how effective he has been when delivering the ball from wide areas. In possession, he has been tidy rather than spectacular, completing 93 passes at 71.5% accuracy, while also attempting to carry the ball forward, completing four dribbles at a 50% success rate. His 18 touches in the opposition box further underline a willingness to get into dangerous areas.
Dare I say, that’s in conflict with the perception of him last season as a box-to-box midfielder, and maybe a wing back, but perhaps not quite the wide left player we needed in a 4-2-3-1 formation. He hasn’t redefined himself, but he’s redefined how Lincoln fans see him with some really impressive cameos, none more so than from the bench against Cardiff City.
Defensively, Jefferies has contributed without being overly reliant on ball-winning as a primary part of his role. He has recorded 10 tackles, five interceptions and 26 recoveries, while his physical competitiveness is reflected in 25 duels won, placing him in the 77.4th percentile, and seven aerial duels won (80.5th percentile). Perhaps most telling is the defensive impact of the team when he is on the pitch. We have conceded just two goals while he has been playing, a figure sitting in the 93.1 percentile, despite an xG against total of 6.52, suggesting the side has been difficult to break down during his minutes.
Or maybe that is a characteristic of the team late on in games, when Dom has had more of his minutes. There’s a flip side to every stat, I guess, but overall, the numbers paint the picture of a player contributing efficiently at both ends while outperforming the underlying attacking metrics available to him.
Conclusion
We’re playing well, players are thriving, but that’s a chicken-and-egg scenario. Which comes first? Is it players performing that drives a team forward, or does the flow of players doing well bring everyone along?
Whatever the point, Dom Jefferies started this season having been under the knife, and is finishing it stronger than I think he was at any point last campaign. I think perception is huge as well, and while last season he was seen (in my opinion) as a flexible squad option, this season he feels like he’s quickly got himself back to his levels, and is now a vital component of the success we’re seeing.
Michael Skubala obviously trusts him; he’s usually the go-to face on the bench when the first round of changes come in, and while he’ll be wanting more minutes and more starts, the general feel around him is a long way removed from the frustrated figure making his way down the tunnel at The Valley a year ago.
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