Lincoln City are back on home turf this weekend with the task of facing relegation-threatened Rotherham United, writes Kyle Fox.
The Millers currently languish in 22nd position and are six points adrift of safety, looking up at 20th-placed Wigan with envy. The gap to 21st-placed Blackpool was extended to five points after they defeated Port Vale with an 81st-minute winner on Tuesday night, while Rotherham suffered a heavy defeat.
The most pertinent news in the build-up to this match is that head coach Matt Hamshaw was relieved of his duties the morning after a 5-0 defeat to a Peterborough United side that simply ran riot. His replacement was named just four hours later in the form of former Birmingham City manager Lee Clark, who has been out of work since 2022 following his spell with Al-Merrikh SC in Sudan.
Clark could hardly have a tougher start, with the South Yorkshire outfit travelling to face the current league leaders. Although his arrival represents a fresh start, Rotherham’s recent record will be a major concern. They have failed to win their last four matches, lost their previous four away games, failed to score in any of those, and have kept just three clean sheets in 18 away matches.
Rotherham Form
In their last nine outings, Rotherham have won just once — a home victory over Plymouth — alongside six defeats and two draws. During that same period, they lost all four away matches, conceding eight goals and failing to score. This run has seen them drop to the bottom of the away table (3W, 2D, 13L), becoming the joint-lowest scorers away from home with just 13 goals while conceding 29.
Prior to this run, the Millers lost every league match throughout December. That streak continued into January, including an EFL Trophy defeat, resulting in an eight-game losing run in all competitions. They then went three unbeaten, drawing with Wimbledon and beating Northampton before producing a shock 4-0 thrashing of fellow relegation rivals Exeter away from home.
As expected, Rotherham rank poorly across most key metrics, both attacking and defensive. They sit 23rd for expected goals (37.5) and touches in the opposition box (647), 20th for shots on target per match (3.3), 22nd for goals per match (0.9), and bottom for big chances (just 60). Out of possession, they rank 20th for goals conceded per match (1.5), 21st for xG conceded (56.4), 18th for clean sheets (8), and 22nd for possession won in the final third per match (2.7).
Sam Nombe remains their main threat at the top end of the pitch, with nine goals and one assist in the league this season. No other player has more than three league goals, with midfielder Denzel Hall and defender Joe Rafferty joint on three each. Joe Powell is arguably Rotherham’s standout player and currently leads the team for league assists with four.
Team News
Following the arrival of Lee Clark, most questions focused on his background and reasons for joining, rather than team news during his first interview on Thursday. As a result, there was little update on injuries, aside from the new head coach stating that “the injury situation is not ideal”.
Former manager Matt Hamshaw revealed that 14 first-team players were unavailable for the trip to Peterborough on Tuesday night, which resulted in a rotated side and a youthful bench. He also provided updates on several players who either missed that match or were forced off through injury.
Powell’s injury could be a recurrence of a previous hamstring issue after he was substituted in the 33rd minute, while Lino Sousa went off with a groin problem in the second half. Liam Kelly and Reece James both missed the game through illness but are expected to return to contention. Emmanuel Adegboyega suffered a shoulder injury against Bolton the previous weekend, while young loan striker Harry Gray has a minor hamstring issue and will be assessed ahead of this weekend.
Defender Thomas Holmes has not featured since Boxing Day, while midfielder Kian Spence has been absent since the end of February. Hamish Douglas and Marvin Kaleta have not played since the Burton game on 17th February, and midfielders Daniel Gore and Dru Yearwood have been sidelined since 3rd March. Striker Jordan Hugill has not featured since 24th January, Denzel Hall since New Year’s Day, and Shaun McWilliams since 7th March.
Lincoln will be without Adam Reach for this fixture after he limped off injured on Tuesday night against Huddersfield. He is now awaiting a scan to allow staff to assess the severity of his injury. Adam Jackson and Freddie Draper both remain out for the foreseeable future, whereas Josh Honohan is now being slowly integrated into full first-team training.
Predicted Rotherham XI
Cann, Baptiste, Jules, Agbaire, Rafferty, James, Benson, Martha, Kelly, Nombe, Watmore.
Previous Meetings
Rotherham have dominated recent meetings between the two sides, winning the last four and two of their last three visits to Sincil Bank. Lincoln have managed just one draw in that time — a 1-1 result in September 2021 — with their most recent victory coming in November 2019 in an EFL Trophy group-stage match. Their last league win came away at Rotherham in August 2019.
The defeat at the New York Stadium in November last year remains Lincoln’s heaviest loss of the season, as it is the only time they have been beaten by a three-goal margin in what was an extremely uncharacteristic performance.
Prediction
Lincoln 2–0 Rotherham
You must be logged in to post a comment.