We’re on the cusp of promotion. Let’s make no bones about it, we could be nine days away from securing Championship football.

If we’re promoted on April 3rd against AFC Wimbledon, we’ll actually be promoted earlier than Birmingham City were last season. Even if it is Monday 6th against Reading, we’ll still be two days earlier than the Blues, albeit a few points fewer.

Plenty of people have asked what might happen, and when it might happen, so here are the different elements to consider.

Current Table – Featuring Only Teams That Can Catch City

These are the only teams that can catch us, the current top six. We’re guaranteed a play-off place, but the automatics are so close we can almost touch them. If only we’d hung on against Bolton in our fixture back in August, we’d just about be there right now.

They are ifs and buts, same as we were saying at the beginning of the season, so let’s deal in facts. The first set of fixtures to look at is this weekend.

Who has whom to play

Firstly, while the uncertainty around our fixtures makes it possible for some teams to catch us, they can’t all do it. Stevenage, for instance, are 24 points behind and have eight games to play. They need to win every game, but as they face Bradford and Bolton, if they were to win those games, those two teams couldn’t catch us. Feasibly, other than Cardiff, only one team can, if one team were to win all their games.

Stevenage would have to win every game and overturn a +37 goal difference. This season, they have scored just 38 so far.

Stockport are 21 behind us, with 24 to play for, so they could overtake us by three points, should we fail to win another game. They’re +37 goals behind us as well, and they face Bolton on Easter Monday.

Bradford have 21 points to play for and are 19 behind us, and their run-in looks favourable. They do have Stevenage and Bolton to play, but crucially, they have to play away. They’re 12th in the away table, having won just five of their 20 away games. They have Wycombe, Barnsley and Exeter to play away, and dropping any points would leave them with a +35 goal difference to overturn.

Bolton Wanderers are the biggest threat, 18 points behind us with 21 to play for. We just need to match one of their results, as goal difference probably gives us the edge, ours is +24 better. If we matched one of their results, then lost every game 2-0, and they won every game 2-0, that would draw them level, and we’d still go up on goals scored.

So, what might happen, and when?

29th March

We’re interested in just one game this weekend, Stockport and Wimbledon. If Stockport win, they’ll move on to 63 points, 21 behind us, and they’ll have 24 to play for. That could feasibly put them level with Bolton Wanderers, so they’re still a ‘threat’ in the mathematical sense. If they draw, they’ll be 23 behind with 24 to play for, and if they lose, 24 behind with 24 to play for.

We’ll assume they have won this for now, but if they do not, then they’re already (almost) out of the equation.

Good Friday

This is the earliest we can clinch promotion.

If we win

If we beat Wimbledon, we’ll be on 87. Bolton are at Plymouth, Bradford host Northampton, Stockport host Wycombe, and Stevenage are at Rotherham. Any result for us rules out Stevenage. A win rules out Bradford City.

Assuming Bolton and Stockport all win, we would then already be virtually assured a top-two spot, but goal difference would come into play. So, if we win, they have to overturn those massive goal differences.

If we draw

Assuming Wimbledon get something, which they have in ten of their 19 away matches this season, we’d be on 85 points. Bradford would still need to win to keep the hunt alive; a draw or defeat for them would rule them out of the automatic race.

Bolton and Stockport, if they won, would gain two points, taking the hunt to Easter Monday. With Bolton at Plymouth, the in-form team fighting for the final play-off spot, I think they could draw. The same goes for Stockport hosting a decent Wycombe side. If either side drops points, and we do too, it goes to Easter Monday.

Easter Monday

Whatever the outcome on Good Friday, we go into Easter Monday knowing that the clubs below us (bar Stockport) have moved onto 40 played, so there are only 18 to play for. That’s our gap now, so the best teams can hope for is to close that gap by bettering our Good Friday result.

The smart money would be on Lincoln City confirming promotion to the Championship on Easter Monday. Reading away is no easy task, but remember, Bolton and Stockport play each other. Assuming both won on Good Friday, one still has to drop points here. Whichever one does is out of the race.

By now, the ‘ifs and buts’ are too many to factor in, but if Stockport win their next two, they’ll go to Bolton on 66 points with 21 to play for. If Bolton win on Good Friday, they’ll be on 69 with 18 to play for. The maths for both is a total of 87. One of those teams is coming away from that game without points, and that would rule them out of catching us. If we’ve won either of our games. My head hurts.

Bradford go to Wycombe, and given their away record, you wouldn’t back them there. Even if they’ve stayed in touch on Good Friday, you’d wager Easter Monday would be a big ask for them.

The different points tallies for those teams rely on one thing: us dropping points. The fact is, if we pick up four points from our final seven games, we’ll go up. That could be a win against Wimbledon and a draw against Reading. It could be draws against Wimbledon, Orient, Port Vale and Doncaster.

Whatever it looks like, the ball isn’t just in our court; it is in our hands. It is our ball, and we’re putting it in our bag and we’re about to go home from the park. All of these different outcomes have set my head spinning, but as Michael Skubala will say, the only thing he cares about is the next three points, and if he collects those on Good Friday, with one on Easter Monday, we’re up, and the others can scrap for whatever points they wish.

Fact: Lincoln City could be a Championship side by April 6th, earlier than Birmingham (April 8th), Portsmouth (April 16th), and both Plymouth and Ipswich (April 29th).

In fact, if we were to secure promotion at Reading on April 6th, we’d be confirming a promotion even earlier than Burnley’s record-breaking promotion from the Championship to the Premier League, which happened on April 8th, although that was with seven matches remaining, and we’d have five.

I have crunched some numbers, because I don’t really have a life, and nobody in the history of League One (since 2004) has confirmed a promotion before April 6th. In fact, I have gone back over every single third-tier promotion race under three points for a win, and not found a single team promoted earlier than we could be.

Not one.

Up the Imps.