On The Cusp Of History: How Many Third Tier Teams Have Been Promoted In Early April

This weekend, Lincoln City could be promoted.

If we win at home against Wimbledon and results go our way, we’ll be a Championship side next season. On Good Friday, if we haven’t secured the result we need, we could be promoted away at Reading. With Bolton and Stockport facing each other, by the time the curtain comes down on Bank Holiday weekend, we’ll know which teams can catch us, if any, and what we need to do.

Put it this way, if we are not in the Championship in eight days time, it won’t have been a very good Easter weekend for the best team in the country. If we are, we’ll officially be one of the best teams in history.

That’s not a bold prediction; that is a fact, depending on which metric you wish to use. Birmingham City are the best team ever to grace the third division, with 111 points, while Plymouth could be collectively described as the best as they’ve managed five title wins across the whole spectrum (Third Division North/South, Third Division, League Division Two and finally League One). However, there is a huge shout for us being mentioned as legends of the division as well.

Why? Well, if we do win it, we’ll move on to four titles at this level, which would put us second in the most wins race, level with Bristol City, Doncaster Rovers, Hull City, Wigan Athletic and Portsmouth. That’s not the reason why, but it’s impressive.

The reason is that a promotion by April 6th, against Reading, would be the earliest in a calendar year any team has confirmed promotion from the third tier. I’m not saying it’s the earliest in terms of games remaining, but in terms of dates, it is. A few have come close, none more so than in 1960/61. This is hugely ironic, because the team going up top in 1960/61 replaced none other than Lincoln City, rock bottom of the Second Division.

1960/61

Technically, Bury were not quite promoted on April 6th. Bear in mind, it was two points for a win, they were top and had 60 points from 41 matches. The promotion race was still technically open, but the maths strongly favoured Bury.

Walsall had also played 41 games and had 53 points, meaning their maximum possible total was 63. Queens Park Rangers had 53 points from 40 games and could still reach 65. However, Grimsby Town, despite being in the promotion race, had only 46 points from 40 games and could only reach a maximum of 58, which meant they could no longer catch Bury.

The only other realistic threat came from Barnsley, who had 42 points from just 37 matches and still had nine games left to play. That meant they could theoretically earn another 18 points and reach 60, the same total Bury already had. However, their goal average was far worse than Bury’s, with Bury on 2.295 and Barnsley on just 1.076, so even matching Bury on points would almost certainly not have been enough for Barnsley to finish above them.

There was also another factor in Bury’s favour, Barnsley and Walsall still had to play each other, which guaranteed that at least one of the chasing teams would drop points.

So while it was still mathematically possible for Bury to be caught, the combination of maximum points totals, goal average, and fixtures between the chasing teams meant that promotion was, in reality, almost certain and that they would replace us in the Second Division.

They still had to wait until April 15th, after a surprise draw with Bournemouth. What is amusing is that the weekend of April 8th, effectively the same weekend we could seal promotion in 2026, was the weekend we were relegated from the Second Division all those years ago, losing 1-0 at Brighton.

The best of the rest

All the other instances of being really close have come this century, probably as the football season has changed, and it tends to finish earlier. Last season, Birmingham City had 92 points by April 6th and looked certain to be promoted, but it was not yet mathematically done. Wycombe Wanderers were on 75 points in third and still had 18 points left to play for, meaning they could theoretically reach 93 and just catch Birmingham. In reality, Birmingham only needed a couple more points to make it official, but at that stage, promotion was not yet confirmed.

Coventry City and Rotherham United were in a very unusual situation in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic. On April 6th, the season had been suspended but not yet cancelled, so neither side knew they would be promoted. When the season was later curtailed and decided on points per game, both teams were promoted, but on April 6th they were still technically waiting for a decision and promotion had not been formally confirmed.

In 2017, Sheffield United were in a commanding position with 85 points and were 13 points clear of third-placed Fleetwood Town with five games left to play. Fleetwood could still theoretically catch them, so promotion was not mathematically secured, but United were so far ahead that promotion felt inevitable rather than uncertain.

In the old Division Two in 2003, Wigan Athletic were 15 points clear of third-placed Oldham Athletic with both sides having five games remaining. Oldham could still mathematically catch them, although their goal difference was 14 fewer than Wigan’s. Cardiff City, who were fourth, were 16 points behind but still had 21 points available, so they were also mathematically still in the race, although in reality they never got close and eventually finished sixth.

In 2002, Brighton & Hove Albion had played 44 games and had 86 points. Brentford had 81 points from the same number of games and could still reach 87, while Reading were also on 81 points with a game in hand and could still overhaul Brighton as well. Brighton were therefore extremely close to promotion by April 6th, but it had not yet been mathematically secured.

If we do it this weekend, Good Friday or Easter Monday, it will be the earliest a team has confirmed third-tier promotion, in terms of dates, since the war.

History in the making, no pressure Michael and the boys, no pressure…..