Part Two of our Championship predictions starts in the play-offs, as there are now six play-off places. Millwall made it last season, so let’s start at The Den.
7. Millwall
Last 5 Championship finishes: 3 – 8 – 13 – 8 – 9
Ground/Capacity: The Den (20,146)
Manager: Alex Neil
In: Jenson Metcalfe (Bradford, undisclosed), Tairyk Arconte (Rodez, undisclosed), Mathis Servasi (Mechelen, undisclosed), Mark Sykes (Bristol City, free), Elkan Baggott (Ipswich, undisclosed), Kyrell Lisbie (Peterborough, undisclosed), Danny Batth (Derby, free)
Out: Wes Harding (Plymouth, free), Barry Bannan (Sheffield Wednesday, undisclosed), Macaulay Langstaff (Salford, undisclosed), Adam Mayor (Hibernian, undisclosed), Billy Mitchell (Sheffield Wednesday, free), Danny McNamara (Charlton, free), Rafiq Lamptey (Chesterfield, loan), Kamarl Grant (Bromley, loan)
I really liked what Millwall did last year, and they are strong play-off contenders after retaining most of the squad that performed so well under Alex Neil. Femi Azeez remains central to their prospects after contributing 19 goal involvements, while his crossing provided a steady supply line for Josh Coburn. Billy Mitchell is a loss in midfield, but Kyrell Lisbie should add pace and another threat in attack, if he can elevate his performances to another division.
Their third-place finish was not simply an overachievement, with Neil having produced promotion-level results over an extended period and built one of the division’s strongest away sides. Millwall were dangerous on the break, hard-working and capable of creating chances in different ways, although the Championship appears stronger this time around. Late interest in key players could change their outlook, but keeping the core together should give them another excellent chance of reaching the play-offs.
8. Norwich City
Last 5 Championship finishes: 9 – 13 – 6 – 13 – n/a
Ground/Capacity: Carrow Road (27,244)
Manager: Philippe Clement
In: Bruno Alves (Cruzeiro, loan), Sam Field (QPR, undisclosed), Andre Brooks (Sheffield United, undisclosed), Darlin Yongwa (Lorient, free)
Out: Tony Springett (Leyton Orient, free), George Long (Southampton, free), Louie Moulden (Accrington Stanley, loan)
Norwich looked like genuine promotion contenders after Philippe Clement took charge last November, winning 17 of their next 31 league fixtures after sitting second from bottom. Only Southampton collected more points during the second half of the campaign, with the January arrivals of Ali Ahmed and Mohamed Toure playing an important role in that turnaround. Toure scored nine times in 11 appearances, while the Canaries’ attacking quality should ensure they remain among the division’s more dangerous sides.
Their summer recruitment also looks encouraging, with Andre Brooks arriving after an excellent season at Sheffield United and Sam Field adding experience in midfield. Clement has already shown he can get a great deal from this group, although recurring injuries to important players remain a concern, not least Jovon Makama, linked with England Under 21 duty before his injury. Norwich should be firmly involved in the play-off race and have enough quality to challenge for promotion if their leading players remain available.
9. Swansea City
Last 5 Championship finishes: 11 – 11 – 14 – 10 – 15
Ground/Capacity: Swansea.com Stadium (21,088)
Manager: Vitor Matos
In: Leo Walta (Sirius, undisclosed), Stephen Welsh (Celtic, free), Moussa Yeo (RB Salzburg, undisclosed), Elijah Just (Motherwell, undisclosed)
Out: Ethan Galbraith (Stoke, undisclosed), Josh Thomas (Fleetwood, free), Ricardo Santos (Sheffield Wednesday, undisclosed), Sam Parker (Wycombe, loan), Liam Cullen (Leicester, undisclosed)
Swansea produced play-off form after Vitor Matos took charge last November, improving from 1.1 points per game before his appointment to 1.5 thereafter. That progress makes them an intriguing prospect, although the departure of Ethan Galbraith leaves an important gap to fill. Retaining Zan Vipotnik would be a major boost, with his goals offering Swansea the platform to move beyond the mid-table finishes that have defined recent seasons.
Their recruitment has brought further attacking potential, particularly through Elijah Just, who impressed for Motherwell and scored three times at the World Cup with New Zealand. Josh Tymon remains one of the division’s better full-backs, while Matos should benefit from his first full pre-season with the squad. Swansea may not possess the depth of the leading promotion candidates, but they have enough quality and momentum to challenge for a place in the top eight.
10. Derby County
Last 5 Championship finishes: 8 – 19 – n/a – n/a – 23
Ground/Capacity: Pride Park (33,597)
Manager: John Eustace
In: Bobby Clark (Salzburg, undisclosed), Charlie Taylor (Southampton, free), Filip Bilbija (Paderborn, free), Sam Szmodics (Ipswich, loan)
Out: Callum Elder (Lincoln, free), Ben Osborn (Stockport, free), Danny Batth (Millwall, free), Liam Thompson (Mansfield, undisclosed)
Derby County should remain difficult to beat under John Eustace, with continuity provided by the retention of important players such as Sammie Szmodics and Bobby Clark. Making Clark’s move permanent is particularly strong business after the midfielder impressed both in a deeper role and further forward last season. Eustace remains one of the division’s most dependable managers, although the rest of Derby’s recruitment has not yet obviously raised the ceiling of the squad.
Inconsistency ultimately prevented the Rams from mounting a stronger challenge last season, with eight wins and eight defeats from February onwards following too many draws earlier in the campaign. Their attacking output remained relatively modest, while injuries and possible departures could expose a lack of depth. Derby should be competitive again, but in a stronger Championship they may narrowly miss out on the play-offs.
11. Cardiff City
Last 5 Championship finishes: n/a – 24 – 12 – 21 – 18
Ground/Capacity: Cardiff City Stadium (33,316)
Manager: Brian Barry-Murphy
In: Nathan Trott (Copenhagen, undisclosed), Jack Moylan (Lincoln, undisclosed)
Out: Ryan Wintle (MK Dons, free)
Cardiff City look the strongest of the promoted sides, largely because so many members of Brian Barry-Murphy’s squad already possess Championship experience. The Bluebirds earned 91 points last season with the second-youngest squad in League One, playing attractive, possession-based football while leading the division for passes and shots on target. Jack Moylan also looks an excellent addition after arriving from City, giving Barry-Murphy another technically gifted attacking option.
The step up in quality should not be underestimated, particularly for such a young group, and Cardiff may still need several additions before the transfer window closes. They do not yet appear significantly stronger than the side relegated from the Championship, but Barry-Murphy has already shown he can maximise this squad. A spectacular season may be unlikely, although they should possess enough quality and experience to avoid an immediate return to League One.
12. Birmingham City
Last 5 Championship finishes: 10 – n/a – 22 – 17 – 20
Ground/Capacity: St Andrews (29,409)
Manager: Chris Davies
In: Jhon Solis (Girona, undisclosed), Dael Fry (Middlesbrough, free), James Beadle (Brighton, loan), Luis Vazquez (Anderlecht, undisclosed), Kristoffer Lund (Palermo, undisclosed)
Out: Byron Pendleton (Shrewsbury, free), Kai Wagner (Philadelphia Union, undisclosed)
Birmingham acquitted themselves reasonably well on their return to the Championship, but a tenth-place finish still fell short of the expectations created by their record-breaking promotion campaign. Chris Davies now has a settled squad and greater experience of the division, while the arrivals of Dael Fry, James Beadle and Jhon Solis should strengthen the spine of the side. They also have the financial capacity to add again before the window closes.
The challenge is turning a capable mid-table team into one that can sustain a promotion push. Blues managed to recover only one of the 24 matches in which they fell behind last season, suggesting they need greater resilience when games turn against them. Improvement looks likely, but the division is getting more competitive, and there are still questions over whether Davies can lift this group into play-off contention.
Comments Welcome!