Lincoln City may have taken only a point from their goalless draw with Blackburn Rovers, but the statistics underline how close they came to claiming all three.
Despite having significantly less possession, the Imps were comfortably the more threatening side, creating more chances and producing a much greater expected goals total. The clearest indication of City’s superiority comes from the xG figures. Lincoln finished with 1.69, compared with just 0.45 for Blackburn. City attempted 17 shots to the visitors’ seven, although the frustration lies in the accuracy of those efforts. Just one Lincoln attempt was on target, while Blackburn tested George Wickens twice.
That disparity between chance creation and shooting accuracy helps explain why a performance worth 1.69 xG did not produce a goal. City reached the right areas and created sufficient volume, but the final effort was too often blocked or directed wide of Aynsley Pears’ goal.
Possession Without Penetration
Blackburn controlled 61.37% of possession and completed 456 of their 530 passes, giving them an accuracy of 86.04%. Lincoln completed 269 of 341, recording 78.89% accuracy while seeing just 38.63% of the ball.
Those figures suggest Blackburn dictated the contest, but much of their possession was relatively harmless. They made 189 more passes than City yet produced ten fewer shots and accumulated less than a third of Lincoln’s xG. The Imps did much more with considerably less of the ball.
City produced 32 positional attacks, ten of which ended with a shot. Blackburn constructed only 21, with three resulting in attempts. That meant 31.25% of Lincoln’s established attacks concluded with a shot, compared with 14.29% of Blackburn’s. Neither side recorded a counterattack, so City’s threat was not generated solely through quick breaks. They built attacks against Blackburn’s defensive shape and found ways to establish pressure around the penalty area.
That pressure is also reflected in the crossing and corner statistics. Lincoln attempted 19 crosses and completed eight, an accuracy rate of 42.11%. Blackburn delivered 14 but found a teammate with only three, giving them an accuracy of 21.43%. City therefore completed more than twice as many crosses despite having much less possession. They also won five corners, with two leading to shots, while Blackburn had seven corners and generated attempts from two of them.
The visitors were required to make 46 clearances, compared with Lincoln’s 30. That is another indication of where much of the pressure was applied, even if City could not find the decisive touch.
Winning The Physical Battle
Lincoln won 76 of the match’s 146 duels, giving them a success rate of 52.05%. Blackburn won 70, or 47.95%. It was not an enormous difference, but City came out on top overall despite facing a side which enjoyed far more possession. The aerial battle was also tight. Both teams contested 43 aerial duels, with City winning 23 and Blackburn 20. Lincoln’s 53.49% success rate helped them maintain pressure and prevent the visitors from establishing complete control.
City also won 35 of their 56 defensive duels, a rate of 62.5%. Blackburn recorded a slightly higher percentage, winning 26 of 38, but they were required to contest significantly fewer defensive duels.
Blackburn’s attacking output offers the strongest evidence of how well Lincoln defended. The visitors managed seven shots and an xG of only 0.45 across 97 minutes. Wickens had work to do, but he was not subjected to the level of threat Blackburn’s possession might imply.
The Imps lost possession 118 times, compared with Blackburn’s 140. City also recovered it 88 times, while Blackburn managed 78 recoveries. Lincoln recorded 15 high recoveries, five more than their opponents, which points towards an effective pressing performance rather than a side simply retreating and absorbing pressure.
The Missing Goal
Almost every major attacking statistic favoured Lincoln. They led 17-7 on shots, 1.69-0.45 on xG and 10-3 on positional attacks ending in attempts. They completed eight crosses to Blackburn’s three, won the overall duel count and forced the visitors to make 46 clearances.
The significant weakness was the finishing. One shot on target from 17 attempts is not enough, particularly when a team creates the territorial pressure and opportunity volume that Lincoln managed.
The statistics support the sense that this was an opportunity missed rather than a point rescued. Blackburn controlled possession, but Lincoln controlled the areas that mattered. City created the better chances, generated substantially more pressure and limited their opponents to very little in front of goal. The performance offered further encouragement about their ability to compete at Championship level, even if the lack of a finishing touch ensured the result did not fully reflect it.
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