Lincoln City should be on the cusp of the play-offs in the early Championship table, at least according to the xG stats.
In what I am sure will be a hugely divisive article, drawing comments like ‘grow up, xG is rubbish’ to ‘good stuff, Gary’, I decided to look at the early xG table to see if we were outperforming our numbers or underperforming.
As my mate Matt correctly said, ‘anyone with a football brain knows performances have been good and we just need to convert our chances‘. Isn’t it nice to see that in numbers?
According to some xG stats, we should currently be tenth. That would include two wins, two draws and a single defeat. The only league game we’ve deserved to lose on the balance of chances is Middlesbrough, so we haven’t been overawed. I’ve used Football xG, and some models have slight variances.
That’s one of the issues with xG. It’s not data; it’s not a stat; it is an opinion based on factors, but it’s still an interesting read.
xG Positions
| Rank | League Position | Difference | Team | xG | xG vs Goals For | xGA | xGA vs Goals Against | Net xG | Net xG Variance | xG Points | Actual Points | Points Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | -1 | Middlesbrough | 10.5 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| 2 | 9 | -7 | West Ham | 11.9 | 0.9 | 6.6 | -0.4 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | -9 | Wrexham | 7.6 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | QPR | 9.8 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 9 | 10 | -1 |
| 5 | 13 | -8 | Norwich | 10.5 | 2.5 | 7.3 | -0.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | -4 | Wolves | 9.7 | -3.3 | 6.4 | -3.6 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| 7 | 7 | 0 | Millwall | 11.2 | 1.2 | 7.6 | -0.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 8 | 9 | -1 |
| 8 | 1 | 7 | Swansea | 8.1 | 1.1 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.9 | -3.1 | 8 | 11 | -3 |
| 9 | 18 | -9 | Lincoln | 8.7 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 10 | 8 | 2 | Southampton | 10.0 | -1.0 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | -3.3 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
What is interesting, certainly from this weekend’s point of view, is the teams that are underperforming. Us and Wrexham are currently nine places lower in the table than our data suggests we could be. That means we’re creating chances, be it lots of poor ones or missing some big ones, and for me, that’s not purely bad. It’s a ‘room for improvement’ situation, rather than ’cause for concern’.
However, one team is 11 places below where the data says they could be, and it’s a worry because it’s Preston North End. They’re currently bottom, but their xG data suggests that, instead of the three points they do have, they could well be on seven now, firmly placed in mid table.
Underperforming their xG stats
| Rank | League Position | Difference | Team | xG | xG vs Goals For | xGA | xGA vs Goals Against | Net xG | Net xG Variance | xG Points | Actual Points | Points Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 23 | -11 | Preston | 6.8 | 1.8 | 6.4 | -3.6 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | 12 | -9 | Wrexham | 7.6 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| 9 | 18 | -9 | Lincoln | 8.7 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 5 | 13 | -8 | Norwich | 10.5 | 2.5 | 7.3 | -0.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | -7 | West Ham | 11.9 | 0.9 | 6.6 | -0.4 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| 15 | 22 | -7 | Cardiff | 8.4 | 2.4 | 9.6 | 0.6 | -1.2 | 1.8 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | 24 | -7 | Burnley | 6.4 | 0.4 | 8.3 | -3.7 | -1.9 | 4.1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | -4 | Wolves | 9.7 | -3.3 | 6.4 | -3.6 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
Cardiff. Burnley. Preston. Wolves. Wrexham. It reads like a ‘who’s who’ of my first half-season watching the Imps in Division Four! Instead, it’s a list of teams who should be higher than their current position suggests, meaning they’re creating but not scoring.
If we do start converting chances, who knows, maybe Lincoln City can climb the Championship table.
What is Xg?