Lincoln City might have changed shape since winning promotion to the Championship, but the numbers suggest our approach with the ball has remained remarkably consistent.
Eight league matches give us an early indication rather than a definitive verdict, particularly when comparing them with an entire promotion campaign. However, the emerging picture is interesting: we have adjusted our structure, retained much of our attacking identity and encountered opponents who use possession differently.
The biggest change might therefore be less about what we are trying to do and more about what the Championship allows us to do. There are fewer physical contests, longer opposition passing sequences and more work inside our own penalty area, while our attacking numbers have held up better than our actual goals tally.
A different shape, a familiar approach
Last season’s formation data was dominated by 4-2-3-1, although we used several variations. Our last six Championship fixtures have all been predominantly 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1, making the back three the clearest structural adjustment. This changes the distribution of players, with wing-backs able to provide width and the attacking players ahead of midfield operating in different spaces. However, an extra centre-back does not automatically mean a more direct approach, and the passing figures provide strong evidence of continuity.
Last season, long passes accounted for 19.44% of our total. This season, that figure is 19.06%, while average pass length has barely moved, from 22.35 metres to 22.48 metres. Our possessions also contain almost exactly the same number of passes: 2.87 now compared with 2.92 last season. Whatever the formation change has altered, it has not substantially changed the length of our passing sequences or our reliance on longer deliveries.
Better opponents are changing the game
We are seeing less possession, down from 43.11% to 38.35%, and attempting approximately 287 passes per match rather than 313, but again, remember that is 46 games compared to eight. However, the much bigger stylistic shift is in the opposition figures.
Their long-pass percentage has fallen from 12.63% to 8.06%, while average pass length has shortened from 20.45 metres to 18.76 metres. Their possessions contain 4.67 passes rather than 3.98, with passing accuracy increasing from 80.5% to 83.6%. That describes opponents who keep the ball through longer sequences of shorter passes. We were already comfortable operating without most of the possession in League One, but Championship sides are making us spend even more time without it.
It also offers a possible explanation for one of the most striking changes: the number of duels has fallen from 214.59 per match to 161.25. Our success rate in those contests has actually improved, from 47.1% to 50.2%. We are winning a larger share of the battles, but there are considerably fewer battles available through which to influence matches.
The attacking ‘decline’ is smaller than it looks
Our goals have fallen from 1.93 per match to 0.88, which understandably draws attention given that two of the 0.88 have been from the spot. However, our expected goals have declined much less sharply, from 1.72 to 1.45, while shots have dropped from 12 to 11.13.
The additional attacking figures reinforce that distinction. Penalty area entries are down from 24.61 to 23.75 per match, a reduction of just 3.5%, while touches inside the box have fallen by approximately 4.9%, from 19.07 to 18.13. Those are not bad changes given the step up to the second tier. We are still reaching dangerous areas with something approaching last season’s frequency, despite having less possession.
Our average shot distance has also shortened slightly, from 16.27 metres to 15.92 metres. Distance does not tell us everything about chance quality, but there is no evidence here that we have simply been forced into shooting from further out.
There has been some deterioration in how attacks develop. Positional attacks have fallen from 28.17 to 25.38 per match, and the proportion ending with a shot has slipped from 29.3% to 27.1%, but again, you have to factor in the quality of the opposition. No Exeter, Northampton or Port Vale; instead, we’re up against Blackburn, Southampton and Middlesbrough. It’s going to be more difficult.
Crossing volume and accuracy have also declined, while deep completed crosses have fallen from 5.72 to 4.75 per game. The switch to wing-backs has therefore not produced an increase in crossing, at least across these opening fixtures.
Turning opportunities into goals
The biggest attacking difference remains the relationship between chances and goals. Last season we scored more than our expected goals suggested; this season we have scored seven from 11.62 xG. I know people will jump all over me saying xG is meaningless, but actually, I’m more positive about the numbers this season. Missing chances isn’t optimal, but you can only miss what you create.
Our proportion of shots on target has dropped from 38.6% to 28.1%, which will raise eyebrows, but even the ‘eye test’ brigade will know we could have scored more than we have. Blocks, defensive pressure and shot selection all contribute, so it would be too simplistic to place the entire shortfall at the forwards’ feet. Nevertheless, the figures suggest a team struggling more with the outcome of attacks than with accessing the opposition penalty area, which is the side of ‘not scoring enough goals’ I like to be on.
That is a different problem from being unable to create anything, even if both can produce frustrating scorelines.
More defending, but signs of adjustment
Opponents are getting into our box more often, but we expected that, didn’t we? Their penalty area entries have increased from 24.22 to 27.38 per match, while their touches inside it have risen by approximately 31.5%, from 15.59 to 20.50. Their possession is therefore not all harmless circulation. Opposition shots have increased from 10.46 to 13.88 per match, with expected goals rising from 1.16 to 1.44.
Our PPDA has moved only slightly, from 11.29 to 11.83, indicating a modest increase in opposition passes per qualifying defensive action. That does support an argument that we are very much ‘business as usual’ in terms of pressing. There is also evidence of improvement within the current season. The opening two games brought 5.30 opposition xG, whereas the following six produced 6.21 combined, an average of just 1.04.
That improvement coincides with the consistent back-three, although the small sample size of opponents prevents us from crediting the formation alone. It does suggest our defensive adaptation deserves more attention than a simple season-average comparison allows.
We have changed our basic structure while preserving much of our passing approach and attacking access. The challenge is to withstand opponents who retain possession more effectively and reach our box more frequently, while getting a better return from the chances we continue to create.
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