We went out of the international break sitting 12th in the Championship, which is a position I think most of us would have happily accepted before a ball was kicked.
Three away wins, including victories at Bolton and Bristol City, represent a superb start. There will have been supporters who would have taken three wins on our travels by Christmas, never mind before the first international break.
Our home form has been harder to establish, particularly with Blackburn and Portsmouth among the visitors we might have hoped to beat. However, we have also faced Southampton and Middlesbrough, competed against some substantial clubs and collected points while dealing with injuries. Tom Hamer’s absence has been a blow, while several of the new arrivals are still being introduced gradually. Some supporters would like that process accelerated, but when we’re 12th with a starting XI that has arguably, at times, been weaker than the one that finished last season, there isn’t an awful lot to complain about.
The question now is what comes next. We have seven matches before another international break, and by the time that arrives, we will have played 15 league games. That is close to a third of the season and a much more substantial basis on which to judge our progress.
It is also a significant period for several players, because competition for places is increasing and January will start to appear on the horizon.
The Next Seven Games
Immediately, we have Sheffield United away and West Ham at home, which is a challenging way to resume. My initial thought was that Andrei Coubiș and Ivan Varfolomeev might both be on the bench at Bramall Lane after their international involvement. Ivan’s limited minutes for Ukraine perhaps make him more likely to start, but Andrei has played enough football for there to be a case for managing his workload. That is one of the decisions the coaches will have to make before we get into the wider questions about this next block.
Two or three points from those opening two games would be a very good return. We could go to Sheffield United and win, or take a point there and then hold West Ham at Sincil Bank. I dislike the phrase ‘free hit’, but there is certainly less expectation attached to facing West Ham than some of the other games coming up. That doesn’t mean conceding the points before we start, because we have already shown we can make life difficult for teams with much greater resources.
Across the seven matches, we face Sheffield United, Millwall, Watford and QPR away, with West Ham, Birmingham and Burnley at home. I have heard this described as a particularly tough run, but I don’t think it is quite as frightening as the names might suggest. Sheffield United are struggling, Millwall have been inconsistent compared to last season, Watford look vulnerable and Burnley have had a dreadful start. Birmingham will be difficult, but I don’t see why their visit should automatically be more intimidating than Southampton’s was.
The trips to Watford and QPR in quick succession look demanding, although even QPR don’t fill me with the same apprehension as going to West Ham, Wolves or Southampton would. They are using Alfie Lloyd regularly up front, and while I liked aspects of what he did for us, I saw a player suited to the upper end of League One. I didn’t come away convinced he would immediately become an established Championship striker. That isn’t a criticism of Alfie, but it does influence how I assess the distance between QPR and ourselves.
For me, ten points from these seven games would be an excellent return. Three wins and a draw would do it, as would two wins and four draws, and there are fixtures in that list where victories look possible. Sheffield United, Burnley and Watford all fall into that category, even if football rarely obliges by giving you points from precisely the games you identify beforehand. We might lose one we expect to compete in and take something from West Ham instead, but the overall target feels reasonable.
Ten points would leave us on 21 after 15 games, which is comfortably better than survival form. Maintain that rate across a full season and you are looking at around 65 points, although I am certainly not suggesting we should start discussing that as an expectation. It would actually represent our points-per-game return from the opening eight matches. That shows how good the start has been, and why another solid block would leave us in a strong position.
Tom Hamer’s Challenge
Beyond the fixtures, there are several players for whom this period feels important, beginning with Tom Hamer. I really like Tom, both as a player and as the sort of character who fits Lincoln City. Somebody at the club made an interesting observation to me over the summer about the size of our defenders. We have some enormous men at the back, but although Tom isn’t quite built on the same scale, he plays as though he is.
That competitiveness is a major part of what he brings, and I don’t think he would have lost his place had he remained fit. The injury has changed the situation, because he now has to win back a shirt rather than keep one. Deji Elerewe has established himself, Andrei is becoming increasingly influential, and Sonny Bradley and Ryley Towler offer strong alternatives. Tom’s ability hasn’t disappeared, but the route back into the starting XI has become more difficult.
There was previously another potential route through covering on the right, particularly if Tendayi Darikwa needed a rest or Josh Honohan wasn’t ready. Daniel Oyegoke’s arrival has altered that, because we have brought in a younger, dedicated right-back whom I expect to become a regular starter. Andrei has shown he can play there too, while Dom Jefferies remains an option. Tom still has plenty to offer, but these next seven games could be significant in determining where he fits within an increasingly competitive squad.
Where Does Rob Street Fit?
Rob Street is another player whose position will be interesting, although I am always careful about writing him off. I was critical of Rob during his early time at the club, then he went to Doncaster, improved and came back to prove me wrong. That experience ought to make anybody cautious about deciding he has reached his ceiling. Nevertheless, the team has moved forward again, and it is reasonable to ask whether he can make the next step with it.
His energy, application and willingness to work are obvious, and there are elements of Ben House in what he does. I think that was part of the attraction when we signed him, because we need forwards who contribute to the way we play without the ball. However, there is only one Ben House, and replacing him almost inevitably means losing something. That isn’t a slur on Rob, because Ben is exceptionally good at a role that can be difficult to appreciate fully from goals and assists alone.
Rob has also demonstrated that he can finish, both in League Two and as one of our leading scorers last season. I wouldn’t describe him as ruthlessly clinical, but there is a natural instinct there that has been useful to us. The question is whether he can continue to make that contribution in the Championship while the competition around him strengthens. Freddie Draper and Mikkel Ladefoged are options through the middle, while Chiedozie Ogbene, Tanto Olaofe, Ethan Wheatley and Mason Melia are all looking for opportunities elsewhere across the attack.
It may be that Rob drops down the pecking order without doing anything particularly wrong. If you improve the strongest options in a squad, somebody who was previously in the middle of it can find himself closer to the bottom. Dom has also made a strong case for minutes, which adds another complication. That doesn’t mean Rob cannot respond, but it does make this next period an important opportunity to show that he still belongs in the conversation.
The Value Of Dom Jefferies
Dom is interesting because he doesn’t have one obvious position into which we can neatly place him. He can contribute in midfield, at wing-back and on either side of the attack, which makes his squad role both difficult to define and extremely useful. I don’t think we can confidently say he will become a regular starter in one particular position. Equally, almost every discussion about somebody trying to break into the side seems to include Dom as another player competing for their minutes.
That applies to the attackers, to players covering wider defensive positions and to midfielders hoping to come on and help see out a game. You know Dom will work, follow the instructions and give you a committed performance, which clearly counts for plenty with our coaches. I also wonder whether Wales might eventually have to consider him, given that Joe Taylor has been selected while playing in League One. Regular Championship minutes ought to put a player into the wider discussion, even if Dom’s versatility makes him less straightforward to assess than somebody with one fixed role.
The Management Team Have Answered A Question
We have reached this point discussing plenty of topics without really needing to question the management team. For me, that is one of the biggest positives of the opening weeks. Ben, Freddie, Deji, Andrei, Conor and George Wickens have all earned praise, but Chris Cohen and Tom Shaw are the people leading the group. They have stepped into a demanding situation and ensured that the team has continued to function.
A quick glance at their CVs might have left somebody unfamiliar with the club unconvinced. Tom’s previous managerial experience extended to Gainsborough Trinity, while Chris hadn’t previously been the permanent figure in charge of a senior side. We know that tells only a small part of the story, because both had already played significant roles in our progress over the previous two seasons. From the outside, though, losing Michael Skubala and appointing two head coaches could easily have been presented as another reason to predict relegation.
Instead, they have continued doing what I think is an exceptional job, supported by Shaun Pearson, Paul McShane, David Preece and the wider backroom staff. There was naturally a question before the season about how the arrangement would work at this level. Their opening results and performances have provided a strong answer.
What I expect over the next seven games is for that work to continue, even if the results don’t always reward it immediately. By that, I mean our underlying numbers look good, certainly putting us a little higher than our current position, and if we continue to underperform our numbers, but overperform expectations, we’re in for a nice little run up to the next international break.
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