Analysis: Could Sheffield United Defeat Be The Catalyst For Change Lincoln City Need?

We needed to begin the second half with enough threat to make them uncomfortable again, creating the chaos and uncertainty. Instead, Joe Rothwell’s opportunity immediately after the interval was a warning, and watching it back, Tom Bayliss might be disappointed with how he doesn’t track Peck. Within seven minutes they had doubled their lead: Tahith Chong plays the ball, continues his run and gets in behind Dom, and again a City man track his opponent. Chong’s movement needed following, because once he receives the return, we are already trying to rescue the situation.

Even then, the angle looks tight enough that I would like George Wickens to do better. That is my reading of it, and it doesn’t absolve the defending which allows the shot in the first place. There are two opportunities to prevent that goal, tracking the run and dealing with the finish, and neither happens. Suddenly, a game that had been competitive before the interval becomes much harder to recover. In fact, I wrote in my notes ‘game over’ and that’s not pessimism, but realism.

The changes we made after were understandable, particularly introducing Chiedozie Ogbene and Mikkel Ladefoged, but I did wonder whether Tanto Olaofe might have offered something while we were chasing as well. Rob put a shift in, and I am not questioning his willingness to work, but Tanto’s pace, strength and directness felt worth considering, especially if we wanted to ask questions. Simply, we didn’t create enough before the third goal made the outcome clear. At 2-0, a goal for us could unsettle the fragile Bramall Lane crowd; they knew that and managed the game excellently.

The third goal was frustrating for different reasons. I’m not convinced the foul for which Tom was booked should have been given, but once the free-kick is awarded, we still have to defend it. In fairness, the referee was decent all game, no complaints generally, and the one decision wasn’t game-changing. Still, once the ball comes in, Mikkel misses the first contact on the long delivery, which is disappointing given his size and how important winning those balls is to us. That leaves the next player receiving it with an opportunity to develop the attack.

I would have liked Rob to get tighter before the cross, although that is the least significant of the issues in the sequence for me. The bigger problem is Bamford arriving at the far post with Dom and Tom nearby, yet still having room to finish. They should be stuck to him like sick on a tramp’s shoes, and instead he’s as free as a plastic bag in the breeze, going where he wants.  It is a good strike, but somebody needs to be close enough to make it difficult or block it. Again, Sheffield United have good players capable of exploiting the situation, but doesn’t everyone at this level? We have given them a situation we should have prevented.

That distinction is why I don’t think 3-0 tells the full story. The xG figures from Wyscout are 2.33 for us and 0.99 for them, alongside ten shots apiece, with five on target for Sheffield United and four for City. Those numbers don’t award us a theoretical victory or mean they were somehow forbidden from scoring three. They do suggest the quality of the opportunities was closer than the scoreline implies, with finishing and individual moments making a substantial difference. Game state matters: Mikkel’s chance accounts for almost half of our xG, but we’d still have been marginally ahead without that.

His late chances also need examining, even if the game was already gone when they arrived. He gets into a promising position, as he did against Southampton, but the first effort goes at Michael Cooper, and the follow-up goes over. We cannot use those opportunities to pretend we were threatening a comeback, but neither should we ignore them when discussing whether our forwards ever get chances. They happened, and they were chances we would expect to finish better.

I think Mikkel needs time. His route here has taken him through Denmark and Swedish football, and adapting to the Championship involves more than being tall, scoring elsewhere or carrying a substantial transfer fee. I believe there is a very good player there, but I don’t think we have bought somebody who will automatically be fully adapted after a handful of appearances. Patience and wanting to see more from him can exist together.

I can understand the concern about us being the lowest scorers in the division, particularly when going behind away from home makes getting a result feel that much harder. The argument I have seen is that our narrow wins have perhaps disguised a lack of attacking threat, and that being more aggressive, changing the formation or giving the new forwards more minutes could help. There is a reasonable question about how we respond when the original plan isn’t working, because we cannot expect to score first every week.

Where I differ is in the assumption that those wins have flattered us, or that playing without the ball necessarily means we are being too defensive. Our chance creation and xG figures have often been encouraging, and the wins at Bolton, Preston and Bristol City were not simply a case of scoring early and spending the rest of the afternoon hanging on. The approach is designed to keep us competitive against better-resourced opposition, put pressure on them when we can and give us opportunities to win, which it has already done. Sheffield United found a way through it yesterday, but that doesn’t mean every opponent will, or that the points we have collected are somehow misleading. I do despair at how quickly fans revel in a win and despair in defeat when almost everything, bar the final outcome, is the same.

Here is a prediction. We could play Sheffield United tomorrow, exact same teams and everything, and win. We didn’t do anything fundamentally wrong in terms of approach; we just didn’t seize moments, or react well enough when facing moments, as we have done. Don’t expect anything different on Wednesday, or at Millwall, unless we go behind.

When that happened, we did change to a back four. I accept that we need to find ways to respond when we fall behind, but starting with a more attacking setup also risks giving expensive opposition players more room to hurt us. Equally, the idea of signing a “proven goalscorer” sounds more straightforward than it is, because goals elsewhere, a substantial transfer fee or much higher wages cannot guarantee a return here. I want us to be more clinical, as Chris Wilder wants Patrick Bamford to be, but I would be much more concerned if we were also bottom for chance creation and xG, while allowing the most chances at the other end. With 11 points from nine games, I think there is enough evidence to keep faith with the approach while recognising the areas we need to improve.

What I cannot agree with, at all, is the suggestion that we lacked desire. Ben House kept running for 90 minutes, players keep challenging, and City continued trying to create something, even at 3-0. There were positional mistakes and a lack of cohesion in the second half, but those are different criticisms from saying nobody wanted it enough. Some of this squad are making a significant step up from League One, and their application is part of the reason we have remained competitive. To say we lacked desire, for me, undermines a lack of competent understanding of the game. Chris Wilder certainly didn’t think that, and I’m more inclined to believe his assessment than a disgruntled trvaelling fan.

That brings me back to the team selection and why this might be a silver-lined cloud. I have no great issue with Ben or Freddie, and I thought Conor McGrandles had a decent game, while the established back three and Adam Reach have given us plenty. However, has Dom shown enough at right wing-back to keep Daniel Oyegoke out indefinitely, or Rob enough to keep Chio and Tanto waiting? Similarly, Tom has had decent performances, but Yunus Konak and Ivan Varfolomeev offer an alternative midfield combination which could bring energy and bite. Daniel has Serie A experience, Yunus has played in the Premier League, and Chio has experience at this level and above. Their backgrounds don’t entitle them to a place, but there comes a point when we need to see whether they can improve us.

As I suggest in the title, yesterday may give the coaches an opportunity to make those changes without disrupting a team collecting good results. I admire the loyalty to the squad, and I think it is almost a part of who we are to give them that chance, but perhaps this result is the moment where we can make changes without seemingly being unfair on the hard-working players who got us here. That’s not the only change we should focus on, either.

Set pieces are another area where I do think we need improvement. The free-kicks and corners yesterday didn’t consistently produce the delivery or disruption we need, and there wasn’t a long throw that caused the sort of problem we created at Bolton and Preston. Delivery wasn’t great with feet, and with Callum, Tom Hamer and Andrei absent from the starting side, some of our usual throwing options weren’t available. As fitness allows, restoring that threat should be part of the thinking for West Ham, because causing chaos is central to how we make these games competitive.

Expectations have moved quickly, and I understand why Sheffield United’s league position made this feel like an opportunity. Still, an away defeat at Bramall Lane wouldn’t have been a startling prediction when the fixtures came out, and one afternoon shouldn’t erase the good work at Bolton, Preston, Bristol City or against Southampton and Blackburn. We can recognise a disappointing performance without treating every win as evidence of brilliance and every defeat as evidence that nothing works. I remember making similar arguments after the Rotherham defeat last season, although I certainly don’t expect the same subsequent run this time.

As for Chris and Tom, I can see them wondering if perhaps the time is now to trust some of the summer signings, not least Yunus Konak and Chio Ogbene, while keeping the principles that have made us competitive. We are going to lose games in this division, but a defeat can still help us move forward, and there is every chance this 3-0 reverse is the one that starts the changing of the guard.