The biggest compliment I can pay this Lincoln City squad is that, when I started thinking about January signings, I struggled to identify something we desperately need.
That isn’t me getting carried away after beating Burnley or assuming we’ve already done the job in terms of staying up. Look through the team, consider the alternatives on the bench, and tell me where the obvious hole is.
Before we kicked a ball at Middlesbrough, I’d have celebrated finishing 21st. Another season in the Championship would have represented a fantastic achievement, and it still would. We’ve given ourselves a platform to make that happen, which is why my first concern about January is keeping this group together.
When people ask what I think we need to bring in, my answer is fairly straightforward: whatever we lose. I don’t see a window where we tear things up or start replacing players who have helped us compete. I expect us to trust the squad, deal with departures and keep an eye on the future.
Start up front, which is where any transfer window debate inevitably begins. We’ve got Mikkel Ladefoged, Freddie Draper and Ben House, all offering something and all capable of contributing at this level, with seven goals in 12 between them. Ladefoged will improve as he adapts, Draper gives us that physical presence against centre-halves, and House has been excellent. Another expensive centre-forward wouldn’t automatically be my priority.
Midfield is much the same. Yunus Konak has had to wait because Ivan Varfolomeev and Conor McGrandles have been playing, while Tom Bayliss hasn’t had a terrible start either. If we’re talking about replacing somebody, we need to recognise there is already competition for those places. Signing another midfielder doesn’t necessarily solve a problem that isn’t there.
The argument will probably be for a wide player, somebody who can drop a shoulder, beat a man and deliver. I understand that, but we’re already getting good balls into the box. Reeco Hackett, House and Andrei Coubis all did that well on Saturday, and our set-piece delivery has been good as well. Admittedly, we are fourth bottom for number of crosses delivered, but top for cross accuracy, 43.5%, in the whole of the Championship.
Rob Street has contributed early doors, while Dom Jefferies offers the sort of versatility that is difficult to replace directly. Honestly, if you were thinking ‘we could upgrade Dom Jefferies this winter’ what would that entail? A right back? Wing back? Winger? You might want more depth or a different option, but that is a different discussion from saying somebody specific needs upgrading. We’re competing in the second tier with these players, and several have deservedly kept others out of the team.
Where I do expect movement is among the loans. Mason Melia and Ethan Wheatley were the exciting young players who might have made a significant difference, but neither has properly got going. Melia’s injury has been unfortunate, and Wheatley has barely featured. That doesn’t mean signing either was a bad decision, but they could go back to their parent clubs, and if they do, we’ll need to be on that in terms of a replacement, albeit maybe one, rather than two.
Their parent clubs will want them playing. Unless the situation changes significantly before January, I can see both being recalled and sent somewhere else. That’s a prediction, rather than anything I’ve been told, but it would be understandable. If those two leave, there are immediately opportunities to refresh our attacking options.
I also have a feeling Ipswich could take Chiedozie Ogbene back, which would create another vacancy. He’s a big earner for them, and they’ll likely want to cash in. I can’t see us being in the permanent market for him, so that would mean another Championship club, like Blackburn, maybe. Then there is Tanto Olaofe: his opportunities have been limited, particularly since Ogbene arrived, and if there is an option to end that loan, I suspect we might consider it. I don’t know the terms, though, so there is ambiguity around him.
That is why I think the loan market will provide most of our immediate first-team recruitment. Depending on who goes, we could be looking for two or three attacking additions. I’d like somebody capable of making an impact from the bench, perhaps helping us counter more effectively, but the profile has to fit our football.
We shouldn’t sign a player simply because supporters want a particular type. Jack Moylan‘s success at Cardiff doesn’t mean we automatically need a replacement playing the same role, as we’re a different team. Even where our 4-2-3-1 now offers a place for that sort of player, we’d have to consider who makes way. Ben House? Not for me; he’s been outstanding this season.
I’d hope Konak stays because the quality is there, even if breaking into the side has taken time. Joe Gauci, meanwhile, is doing the job he was brought in to do, providing cover for George Wickens. Not every loan needs to be a breakout star to serve a useful purpose.
The other major consideration is whether we lose somebody permanently. Deji Elerewe is the obvious player who could attract attention, and I hope any serious interest waits until the summer. If he leaves, a centre-half becomes a priority. Until that happens, though, I wouldn’t be treating his departure as something inevitable, but it has to be possible, and that’s a testament to him and to us.
Even without losing him, there might be a case for signing a younger defender with the longer term in mind. Sonny Bradley cannot play forever, and getting somebody settled before they are needed would make sense. A younger left-back could fit the same thinking, although Callum Elder and Adam Reach mean it isn’t urgent.
Daniel Oyegoke is an example of why a signing doesn’t have to walk straight into the team as well. We can bring somebody in because we believe they will become important later. I wouldn’t be surprised if a permanent January arrival followed that pattern, rather than being somebody expected to transform our season immediately.
That could mean another overseas signing. We have the ESC route, and there may be an opportunity for somebody from Scandinavia or another market we’ve been watching. A midfielder or wide player with potential would fit. I’d expect any such move to be about development as well as what they can offer now.
The difficulty is that January might arrive without us knowing which division we’re recruiting for next season. We cannot load ourselves with wages that only make sense in the Championship and then assume survival will follow, as Oxford did. Recruitment has to give us a better chance now while leaving us in a sensible position either way.
So I expect replacements for departing loans, perhaps a permanent signing with room to develop, and a determination to retain our best players. If we can do that and stay up, the summer becomes the opportunity to consider how we establish ourselves.
For January, I think we already have plenty worth trusting.
Another good analysis of our present squad. Interesting read