Lincoln City have already shown we can win away from home this season, but can we find a way to banish the demons of Saturday and get another big three points on the table?
Choosing the side for tonight is interesting because there are two different approaches we might take. We’ve won away with three at the back, but we also produced a really positive performance at Millwall with a back four. Before you even get to the names, there’s a fairly significant question about the shape.
Yes, we lost at Sheffield United and Middlesbrough, but we also won three consecutive away games at Bolton, Preston and Bristol City. Those victories came with three at the back, whether you want to call it a 3-4-3 or a 3-4-2-1. There is an argument for returning to the system that served us well earlier in the season.
However, we were very much on the front foot at Millwall in a 4-2-3-1. We left ourselves open towards the end, but we could have been out of sight shortly after half-time if we’d taken a couple of very good chances. That performance has to count for something when we’re deciding how to approach another away game.
When head coach Tom Shaw talks about having found an effective way of playing away from home, it doesn’t necessarily tell us which formation we’re going to use. Likewise, when Chris Cohen says we need to get back to what we’re good at, does that mean returning to three at the back? It might, but I don’t think either comment gives us a definitive answer.
Then there’s the opposition to consider. Watford aren’t taking their chances, they’re struggling at the back and they’re having problems holding on to leads. If we can get at them and score early, I think there’s every chance of coming away with three points.
They would be three valuable points as well, given where we’re going on Saturday. A win here would make QPR feel like something of a free hit, rather than a game from which we desperately need a result. I said seven points from this difficult seven-game run would be acceptable, and I stand by that.
Beating Watford would put us in a position to reach that target. Winning at QPR is possible, of course it is, but I think it’s unlikely, so tonight feels like the opportunity we need to take.
Ultimately, Chris and Tom will say they’re picking the team they believe can win the game. Michael Skubala used to say the same thing, and fair play, that’s the job. With that in mind, I’m going with a 4-2-3-1.
George Wickens stays in goal, and I don’t attach much blame to him for Saturday’s defeat. He was left with very little chance for the first two goals, and I don’t see a reason to change the goalkeeper on the back of that game.
Ahead of him, I’d have Andrei Coubis on the right, Deji Elerewe and Sonny Bradley in the middle, and Adam Reach on the left. I’m sticking with that defensive unit, and we also retain the threat of the long throw.
The one position where I can see a straightforward alternative is left-back. Callum Elder could come in for Reach, particularly when we’re playing Saturday, Tuesday, Saturday. With an almost like-for-like option available, there might be a temptation to protect Reach a little and share those minutes. That wouldn’t surprise me, and I wouldn’t have a problem with it. However, for my chosen side, Reach keeps his place.
In midfield, I’m going with Tom Bayliss alongside Ivan Varfolomeev. Yunus Emre Konak and Varfolomeev didn’t have their best games against Birmingham, although I don’t think they were quite as bad as some of the reaction suggested. Even so, there is a case for changing that pairing.
Bayliss came on and scored on Saturday, and I’d give him the opportunity to start here. That means Konak comes out of my side, with Varfolomeev retaining his place alongside Bayliss.
Varfolomeev came off relatively early against Birmingham, and I do wonder whether there was half an eye on tonight in that decision. Taking those minutes out of his legs might have helped prepare him for another start so soon afterwards. That’s only a thought, but it would make sense in the context of this week.
Further forward, I’m assuming Ben House is fit and available. He would be part of my three behind the striker, alongside Chiedozie Ogbene and Dom Jefferies, with Freddie Draper leading the line.
Jefferies keeps his place because I think he’s been playing well. His work rate is exceptional, and that’s a quality I want in the side this evening. There are decisions to make across that attacking line, but he’s someone I’d retain.
Ogbene comes into my team, while Draper gets the nod up front. With House also in that attacking group, that’s the combination I’d choose to try to get us ahead and give Watford something to worry about.
There is a perfectly reasonable argument for going back to three at the back, and our away wins provide the evidence for it. However, the Millwall performance showed that a back four can also help us take a game to the opposition, and that’s what I’d like to see tonight.
Watford have problems we should be trying to exploit. This is the XI I think gives us a chance of doing that and heading to QPR with three more points in the bag.
My chosen XI, 4-2-3-1: Wickens; Coubis, Elerewe, Bradley, Reach; Bayliss, Varfolomeev; Ogbene, House, Jefferies; Draper.
That’s my team for tonight. Let me know what you think in the comments, particularly whether you’d stick with four at the back or return to the three that brought us those away wins.
Comments Welcome!