After six games of the season, the Imps have played six, won three, drawn two and lost one. We’ve scored ten goals and conceded six.
After six games of last season, we had played six, won three, drawn two and lost one. Remarkably, we’d also scored ten goals and conceded six. The only difference is placing – we’re currently sixth while last year, we were seventh.
It’s crazy that we have exactly the same record, so I thought I’d look a little deeper into the numbers – are we any better off from last year? What has actually changed in terms of our performances, and our situation? I’ve unpacked a few numbers for you to digest, but first, let’s look at what is different outside of the stats.
Imps Position
It’s fair to say that any City fan would have taken this position at this stage of the season. We’ve played two of last season’s play-off teams, Peterborough and Barnsley, and two clubs who had very similar records to us last season in Stevenage and Wigan. The only side we’ve played that are not an established League One outfit have been Mansfield, who we swept aside. However, a year ago, we’d played decent sides as well – relegated Blackpool, Wycombe who finished above us in 2022/23 and play-off hopefuls Bolton. It could be argued that Shrewsbury and newly-promoted Northampton offered slightly easier opponents, but it has been a similar start.
However, the sixth game last season was our 1-1 draw at Bristol Rovers, a game where we knew we’d lost Tyler Walker, Ben House and new signing Jack Vale to injury. We went into the next six with half a team, and struggled for depth. That was an issue that dogged us all season – remember once we got our strikers back, we lost Conor McGrandles and Ethan Hamilton to injury. While we look in a similar position in terms of results, it’s fair to say we’re in a more robust position in terms of squad.
On the Field Similarities
On the field, it has to be said some of our core metrics are not dissimilar to last season. The big one (you know I love) is xG. Last season, our xG after six games was 7.46, whereas this season we’re down on 6.51. Now, before we start complaining that we’re creating fewer opportunities than a Mark Kennedy outfit, it is worth pointing out that we’ve had one penalty (xG 0.74) this season, whereas we had two at the same stage last season. Without penalties, the figures would be 5.98 v 5.77, almost identical.
The same has to be said for our possession. Last season, we’d achieved 38.57% possession in our matches, whereas in this campaign, we’re at 38.61%. again, remarkably similar. In fact, a lot of our numbers are similar – there’s nothing between passes into the final third per 90 (55.3 last season compared to 56.5 this season), nor aerial duels (57.5 x 57.3), win percentage (43.9% x 43.2%) or crosses into the box that results in an actual box entry (7.16 x 7.66). It is almost as if we are looking at a carbon copy of the two campaigns.
On Field Differences
Of course, there has to be some differences. We are pressing more. I know everyone (especially Andy Pearson) loves PPDA, which shows how many passes are performed by the opposition before we make a defensive action. In 2023/24, that figure was 17.03, whereas this season it is considerably lower, 11.16.
We do also have more touches in the box – last season the figure was 10.5, but so far this season, we’re at 14.3. We’re actually running into the box more now as well, five time per game according to the stats, whereas last season, it was just 1.8. While we have the same number of goals, and a slightly lower xG, we are seemingly getting into the box more, and putting it on opponents much more.
There’s more – we are attempting more crosses, 12.6 compared to 10.3, and we’re averaging twice as many corners per game. It suggests things are a little more exciting, a little more forward and direct. We have more shots, but only marginally (9.16 this season, 8.5) last season, and slightly more attacks from open play as well, called ‘positional attacks’ on Wyscout, (26.3 this season, 24.6 last season).
Conclusion
So what is the outcome? I think of it like this. After the Bristol Rovers game last season, I felt we were real contenders for the top six. What followed was six hugely turbulent matches – we won two, drew one and lost three. Mark Kennedy lost his job, and on paper, those matches weren’t as challenging as the opening six – Cheltenham, Carlisle and Fleetwood were all relegated, Burton struggled all season, while Portsmouth and Peterborough were promoted. To take seven points from that possible 18 wasn’t great. Our next six now are Cambridge, Blackpool, Leyton Orient, Wrexham, Birmingham and Crawley. Arguably, there’s ten points in that lot, and if we were to achieve that, I think we’d consider it a good haul.
Whatever happens, we’re sure to come out of this with Michael Skubala at the helm, meaning those similarities between last season and this are purely a conversational point. The club, on the whole, is very different, but we employ a similar approach. We still let teams have possession, we still look to get forward quite quickly and we still have a little work to do when it comes to getting our xG up, but the squad and management feel in a better place to build upon what we have.
I look at it this way. After six matches, this is a great base, a superb foundation to kick on. Last season, after we laid the foundation, the foreman dropped the ball and half the workforce called in sick. This season, come Saturday, we have a better foreman and a bustling, eager workforce, ready to start putting the rest of our top six assistants together for supporters.
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