After back-to-back wins in the last ten days, the play-offs are back on the agenda.
The club appear focused on getting into the top six, turning down a bid from Plymouth for Paudie and going all-in on striker James Collins. The gap is just six points, but the so-called supercomputer thinks we’re going to miss out. Remember, in November, it thought we’d finish fourth. Right now, it thinks 12th on 65 points.
Here’s Why The Super Computer Is Wrong
In a Patreon-only video this morning, I explained why I felt that we could get more points, and to do so, I’ll use facts. This season, we’ve won ten matches, and six of those have been games where we have had no midweek fixture prior. So, when we play Saturday-Saturday, we’re better, and I mean a LOT better. In those fixtures, eight in total, we’ve won six and drawn one, a PPG of 2.3, or 19 points in total.
In games where we have had a midweek fixture, or less time to prepare, we’ve won just four of 19. That’s 21%, and a points per game of just one. That does include the packed Christmas period, though.
For the remainder of the season, we have eight matches where there’s no midweek game. If we had the same record, which is possible, that would be 19 more points, or 56 points from 35 matches. That would leave 11 games where we’d need to pick up 16 points, a PPG of just 1.4, which isn’t unlike our PPG excluding the busy and rubbish Christmas period.
Why just 15 points from 11 games? Well, as League One is more competitive in 2024/25, the teams at the top have fewer points, and the supercomputer is predicting Bolton and Reading to be 6th and 7th on 71 points. Stockport are expected to be 5th on 72 points.
How Realistic Is It?
That’s a good question, I’m glad I asked. Our PPG right now is 1.4, which if we kept on that trajectory would give us around 65 points, not enough for the top six. The question has to be, what has fundamentally changed from New Year to now that makes us expect we can pick up another seven or eight points?
It’s hard to give a definitive answer, but I think the confidence and mood of the squad will have been lifted after the weekend’s win. The Northampton game got a monkey off our back, but the Posh win is different. It’s a real boost for supporters. That’s the same supporters who have seen one of our own, Sam Clucas, come back to the club. The same supporters who have seen a 20-goal-a-season striker (okay, 19 last season) arrive at the club on a permanent deal and score within 17 minutes of making his debut.
Right now, it feels a lot like last season, with positivity flowing around the club on the back of a couple of decent results and a couple of signings. The players will feel that. We have a talented squad, and bear this in mind—going into November, before the fixtures began to pile up, we had a PPG of 1.84.
If we achieved that PPG between now and the end of the season, 72 points would be our finishing number, enough to end the campaign in fifth, according to the supercomputer, setting up a play-off semi-final with Wrexham.
You heard it here first!
You must be logged in to post a comment.