Good Point, Bad Point – Analysis of Imps’ Blackpool Draw

Before yesterday’s draw with Blackpool, we’d have taken a point. On 20 minutes, a point felt like it would be a massive failure.

The truth is that yesterday, in the grand scheme of things, was a good point. Contextually, having been 2-0 up and in control, it did not immediately feel like it. I suppose it can be seen as a good point and a bad point rolled into one.

Stats-wise, it is an outstanding point against a side that did enough to beat us 3-0. That’s based on xG, and while other metrics need to be taken into account, it’s quite a stark reminder that, despite being 2-0 up, we probably outperformed our own expectation.

Supporters see 2-0 and will say ‘we were well on top’ in the first half, but our xG up to 18 minutes was 0.34, and we didn’t create another chance until 65 minutes. So, were we really on top? No. We were in control, and that is different.

Looking at our start, I’d say we surprised ourselves. Winding, blinding Gareth Ainsworth would have been proud of scoring our opener, as winding, blinding Jack Moylan danced through the defence and scored a wonder goal. That clearly knocked the home side, and we had two more chances. Reeco fired over, and then Rob Street found the back of the net via a wicked deflection.

There you go, 20 minutes in and we’re 2-0 up from chances that weren’t as clear cut as those against Exeter and Stevenage at home. It weighs the perception of the game to us being rampant, but that would be far too strong a word. We had got ourselves a deserved lead, but 2-0 flattered us.

Let’s not then kid ourselves that the penalty changed the game, the easy assumption to make. Six minutes after we scored, Hayden Coulson had a chance for them that ranked as 0.29 xG, more than both our goals combined. Easy to forget that was their fourth shot (up to that point, we’d had three), although the other three were speculative.

The point I am trying to make here is that going from 2-0 to 2-2 was not a capitulation. It’s disappointing, but we’re talking about a side here laden with talent, likely to be top eight in terms of budget. Scott Banks, Josh Bowler, Ashley Fletcher and Dale Taylor are all big-budget players, and that’s just a selection of their talent, the two centre halves, Ihiekwe and Horsfall, are thought to command somewhere in the region of £16,000 per week between them, pick any five of our players and I’d wager the total wouldn’t reach that. It’s not an excuse, but they were Goliath (of sorts), at home, wounded by David and facing an angry (if a little sparse) crowd. They had to react.

The sad thing is, we gave them the lifeline. The penalty is frustrating because it’s avoidable. Tom Hamer is usually no-nonsense, and yet he dallied. Wickens, in my opinion, is not to blame at all in that moment. Hamer puts it out, they get a throw and it’s probably still 2-0 at half time. Instead, it’s a gift, a gimme, but Hamer is in credit, he’s been great for us. I’ve seen Wickens blamed, but he already had an assist, and I find it crazy that he is having the finger pointed at him for the penalty.

I’ve seen criticism of us going three at the back as well, but it’s clear why we did it. We matched up to Blackpool, because believe it or not, it isn’t all about us. Michael Skubala makes tactical changes based on the opposition. He’s explained that before, and yet it’s classed as negative? Was it negative when we were 2-0 up? Or are we just going to lay that at the feet of our starboy, Jack Moylan, and give the boss no credit?

I sound quite bitter this morning, and I am. We’re third in the table, we took a draw at a big-spending side (yes, one low down in the table, but one with 1.66 ppg since he took over (before yesterday), in terms of the league table, that’s comparable with Stockport in sixth. Was this really two points dropped? Yes, in terms of the situation after 20 minutes, no in terms of its not a 1-1 draw at home against Port Vale or 2-2 against Doncaster, both games we did actually win after holding out.