Goals From The Bench: Is This Lincoln City Side The Best Ever?

To answer the question ‘Is This Lincoln City Side The Best Ever?’, it is not possible to know without a lot of research, but we can see how we do compared to the last 20 years.

There, now we can get to why we’re writing the article!

On this week’s podcast, Emily pointed out we seemed to have a lot of subs coming off the bench and scoring goals – more so than other seasons. The exact quote was this:

“I was looking today at how many goals we’ve had from the bench. What’s interesting is that we’ve not really had to bring substitutes on to chase a game.

“In terms of the numbers, we’ve scored 11 goals from the bench in the league so far this season. That’s only two behind last season’s total, and we still have 12 games to go. It’s also equal to the total from the season before that.

“Then if you look back at the 2022-23 season, the peak Mark Kennedy season, we didn’t score a single league goal from the bench at all. I actually had to double-check the data because it sounded so strange. I even posted it in the group chat to ask if it was correct, because it seemed so unlikely.”

It’s a great spot (I think she’ll admit it was her Dad), and I thought you guys might be interested in seeing exactly how Michael Skubala rates in terms of not just goals, but also assists from the bench for his teams.

My guess, before starting, would have been little to pick between Michael Skubala and Michael Appleton, with Mark Kennedy being the outlier. You see, I don’t just think that the players available affect the numbers. I think intent and overall team performance have a big say. Mark Kennedy’s side ground out draws, and we had a spell lacking a proper striker, so you could understand him being the outlier.

Michael Appleton had Morgan Rogers to bring on, and other decent players, so you’d expect him to be higher up, but what about managers before the EFL era?

I crunched the numbers for every season from 2004/05 to the present day (they’re the ones easily available) and found out that Michael Skubala’s numbers are not just impressive, they’re remarkable.

There are caveats to this table, which I’ll address. We can make more subs now than we could in the days before we dropped out of the league, so maybe you’d expect the numbers to go up. However, there are some clear indicators that have to be mentioned. Some managers just didn’t seem to be able to affect games – Chris Sutton had almost a full season in 2009/10, but saw just two goals come from subs. Mark Kennedy did have a full season in 2022/23, but not a single sub managed a goal – he did get two assists from his changes.

In terms of goal involvement, Michael Skubala is way out ahead. Last season, 29% of our goals involved a player who had not started the match, while his 2023/24 stint, 30 matches, saw 18 goal involvements from subs – 40% of our goals either scored or created by a player coming off the bench. Mark Kennedy’s side prior to Michael’s arrival, had four, or 20%.

I get this is a table open to interpretation, with so many variables, but the regularity with which Michael Skubala’s changes have an impact is notable. Indeed, in 2020/21, when Morgan Rogers (2), Anthony Scully (18), Callum Morton (6), Brennan Johnson (2), Harry Anderson (15), Tom Hopper (6) and James Jones (8) all came off the bench, we had eight goal involvements by subs, just 11%.

Now, what if we took that data and worked out who used their allowed subs the best? By that, I mean back in the days when you could only make three, were there any managers whose changes had a better subs-to-goals ratio? The answer is yes.

Alternative table

How curious that at the top and bottom we have Peter Jackson. That suggests squad depth as a factor, rather than managerial acumen, but also I think 2009/10 we were just a bit shit at the start, and that skews the numbers. Really, only managers with double figures should be counted, as that gives you a fair spread of matches.

Still, Steve Tilson, Mark Kennedy, and Chris Sutton are all quite low down with double figures, and that probably isn’t a surprise. We didn’t exactly inspire during their tenures, did we?

In terms of those double-figure matches, Michael Skubala is still up there, but a little less so. Interesting that of the managers who completed double figures, the best responses from the bench are in seasons where the manager takes over midway through – Peter Jackson, Michael Skubala and Michael Appleton all getting a tune out of a new squad, although in fairness, Cowley’s reign pre-Appleton is the most effective, so maybe just a good squad again.

Conclusion

What do I hope to achieve with these numbers? Not a lot. It proves that Michael Skubala’s changes do influence matches a lot more than his predecessor (at least) and as much as any EFL manager this century. I should maybe look at the National League soon as well, but that did seem to be stretching it.

Do we have a better squad than any other time this century? Yes. Does Michael know how to play his cards to get the most out of a matchday 18, and not just a starting XI? Absolutely. The proof is in the numbers, however you wish to interpret them.