Lincoln City head to Wales this Saturday for a colossal fixture against Cardiff. The two top teams in League One go head-to-head in what has the potential to be an exhilarating game of football, writes Kyle Fox.
It’s 1st vs 2nd. Lincoln have conceded the fewest goals this season in the league while also being the second highest scorers. Their opponents Cardiff boast the best scoring record and are joint fourth for goals conceded, with both teams currently sitting on +32 goal difference. Just a single point separates the two sides heading into this weekend and all these factors, plus more, have created such excitement and anticipation, which is completely justified and fantastic to see.
The Bluebirds’ scoring statistics are extremely strong when you consider they have scored in each of their last 21 matches, scoring at least twice in all of their last seven matches and having won 18 out of 19 when taking the lead. At home, Cardiff have been simply imperious this season, only losing twice. Those defeats came all the way back in September and, surprisingly, were in consecutive home games against Bradford and Burton.
Since then, they have only dropped points once at the Cardiff City Stadium in a draw against Stockport. They have taken 43 points from a possible 51 at home and are unbeaten in their last 12 home games.
Cardiff Form
Brian Barry-Murphy and his players have only recently lost an unbeaten streak of their own, which started after they were beaten away at Lincoln in late December. After that game, the Welsh outfit went 12 games without defeat before facing Plymouth away from home two weeks ago, where they were beaten convincingly 5-2. It was one of the rare occasions throughout this season that they displayed any real frailties, alongside perhaps some tactical weaknesses for Lincoln’s coaching staff to try and identify and exploit, like Plymouth managed to. Another statistic worth mentioning is that Cardiff have failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 17 home matches.
However, Cardiff did respond very well to this setback by putting four past Doncaster Rovers away from home despite the fact they only had four shots on target throughout the game — clinical finishing. Prior to both of the aforementioned fixtures, they had also won by large margins multiple times at home recently against teams like Barnsley and Wimbledon, putting four goals past both of those teams.
Unsurprisingly, Cardiff also rank first for many key metrics such as: goals per match (2.00), clean sheets (13), shots on target per match (5.20), big chances (103), average possession (61.7%) and also second for xG (53.2) plus touches in the opposition box (924). However, they are overperforming on xG conceded where they rank 12th (42.5) and xG difference (10.7).
The Imps put together another brilliant performance against Blackpool last weekend, especially after having to navigate a challenging first half. Conor McGrandles picked up a rare goal 38 minutes in to relieve some of the pressure and send Lincoln into half-time 1-0 up. Lincoln controlled the second half until an ever-alert Rob Street capitalised on a horrendous back pass to slot home after rounding the keeper. Dom Jefferies then added a third and was excellent after coming off the bench. He then put through Ryan One to score after a wonderful bit of skill to create space. That extended Lincoln’s unbeaten run to 17 league games — relentless.
Team News
Cardiff were very short on striker options last time out against Doncaster with Yousef Salech still recovering from a long-term neck injury and Omari Kellyman also missing due to a minor groin issue. Salech will miss the game this weekend, but it is unclear whether or not Kellyman will be fit as he hasn’t trained yet. Dylan Lawlor is in a similar situation after starting last weekend but coming off after 61 minutes. Isaak Davies is confirmed to be out with a hamstring issue.
Lincoln fans will feel better after hearing there is a possibility Jack Moylan could be named in the squad on Saturday. He could have a huge impact if he is fit enough to play. Freddie Draper is still out with a hamstring problem that is being monitored week by week. Adam Jackson is still building his fitness back up and won’t be in contention, and Josh Honohan is still a few weeks away.
Cardiff Predicted XI
Trott, Ng, Fish, Osho, Bagan, Robertson, Wintle, Willock, Colwill, Tanner, Kellyman.
Previous Meetings
The match in December last year was the first time both teams had met since 2001. Lincoln won that game 2-0 which allowed bragging rights to be held for 25 years and beyond up until now where that could change come Saturday.
It was a close contest on a foggy winter afternoon right before Christmas last year. Arguably the best chance came in the first half when the ball fell to Salech in the six-yard box who tried to force it home before Reeco Hackett intervened at the last second to divert his attempt onto the bar.
The deadlock was broken close to half time when Alex Robertson unfortunately diverted the ball into his own goal while attempting an interception. Cardiff then carved out a quite majestic goal to level things up early in the second half. It involved a series of one-touch passes on the edge of our area until Salech played Ng through on goal as he then delivered a sumptuous dink over an oncoming Wickens. City then managed to snatch a winner late on thanks to their threatening set pieces, with Sonny Bradley rising highest from a corner to seal the victory.
Prediction
Cardiff 2-2 Lincoln
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