Thanks to Lincoln City being really, really good, only one game matters to us tonight, Cardiff City and Huddersfield Town.
Before we look at that, it is a big night of action in our division. Bolton and Stevenage face each other, hoping to get an advantage in the play-off race, which is more or less done. Orient need points, Vale are almost down, but not according to the maths, and Rotherham could (oddly) be the first team relegated despite being third from bottom.
So, the Imps are interested in just one of those fixtures – Cardiff City’s trip to Huddersfield Town.
Why? Because while we can’t win the title today, we’ll know with more clarity what we need over the weekend with the right result.
If Cardiff City Lose
If Cardiff lose tonight’s game, they’ll be 12 points behind us, with just four to play. That would mean we’d need to lose all four of our games, and them win all four, for them to catch us. In that instance, goal difference would likely favour them, because it’s currently +9 in our favour, but four defeats and four wins would see at least a +8 swing.
Still, if they lose, we know we only need a point at Stevenage on Saturday, or for them to drop a point at Reading, and we’ll be League One champions.
It can’t be decided tonight, but a Cardiff City loss do have the fat lady clearing her throat and waiting for her cue.
If Cardiff City Draw
In terms of the title, a draw isn’t much use to Cardiff either, as it would leave them 11 points behind us with 12 to play. It would mean that for them to win it, they’d have to win their remaining four matches, and we’d have to lose three and draw one, minimum, with the +9 goal swing also in play.
A draw means this weekend, matching their result at Reading would secure us the title. As they have Northampton and Port Vale at home, after Reading, we can safely assume they’re going to head into Mansfield on the final day with at least six more points. It shouldn’t get squeaky, but they do have favourable fixtures, which are only really a consideration if we drop off considerably (lose as many league matches in four as we have in 40).
If Cardiff City Win
If they win, the gap is nine points with 12 to play for. That would mean we could, in theory, beat Stevenage and them lose to Reading, and the title still not quite be confirmed. A win for them would see us unable to confirm the title this weekend, and it would then roll over to Doncaster next week.
Remember, if they win, they’ll have 84 points, and us 93. If we both win at the weekend, it’ll be 87 and 96, nine points, with three left to play. Any sort of result for us against Doncaster and Port Vale would then be enough. If they win against both Huddersfield and Reading, and we lose against Stevenage, then the difference would be 87 and 93, six points, with nine to play for. Considering they have Port Vale and Northampton at home, one would consider them in a good position to take maximum points, so it might get close.
No Concern To Us
The rest of the division is of little concern to us, but Stevenage and Bolton is massive. If Stevenage were to win, they would open a seven-point gap between them and Plymouth in seventh, and go level with Bolton on points. If Bolton were to win, then the gap would remain four points but a Huddersfield win against Cardiff City would take them to within two points of Alex Revell’s side, who would have played a game fewer. That’s close, and it would make things tough for us this weekend, if they weren’t already.
At the bottom, Wigan are six points clear of the drop, and can make the gap eight with nine to play for with a win against Rotherham. It’ll be bittersweet for Gary Caldwell, who would see the eight point gap open up between his current side, and Exeter City, who are in real trouble.
Defeat for Rotherham would see them 13 points shy of safety with 12 to play for, so they’d be gone. Northampton, two points behind, would have a game in hand so could stay up (but won’t). Port Vale still have seven matches left, 21 points to play for, and are just 16 points from safety, but stand very little chance of staying up. Still, it would mean the first side relegated to League Two would be 22nd in the division, not 24th, a funny quirk.
Orient, good in spells against us, are on 50 points and host Mansfield in 13th. A win for them would draw them level on points with the Stags! Mathematically, Barnsley, in 12th, could still go down, as could Mansfield, Doncaster, Wigan, Peterborough, Burton Albion, Blackpool, Orient and Wimbledon.
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